Brexit View

[Seabag]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Seabag Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Boris & Fox are to join forces in a leadership

> > takeover

>

> Possible misuse of the word 'leadership'?

I use it loosely, bearing in mind Trump is 'leader of the free world'

[miga]

Loz Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> miga Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Despite all that, in a hypothetical second

> > referendum, would people still vote Brexit?

>

> Quite possibly. Many people, rightly or wrongly,

> still do actually believe Brexit will make their

> lives better.

>

> Which is why Brexiters are so very against the

> concept of a referendum on the final deal - once

> people actually see what the future really is,

> they may not be so keen.

I think the result would be pretty similar, based on personal experience and anecdote (and things like this thread). There was a poll 6 months ago that had numbers more or less the same.

[JohnL]

miga Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Loz Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > miga Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> > > Despite all that, in a hypothetical second

> > > referendum, would people still vote Brexit?

> >

> > Quite possibly. Many people, rightly or

> wrongly,

> > still do actually believe Brexit will make

> their

> > lives better.

> >

> > Which is why Brexiters are so very against the

> > concept of a referendum on the final deal -

> once

> > people actually see what the future really is,

> > they may not be so keen.

>

> I think the result would be pretty similar, based

> on personal experience and anecdote (and things

> like this thread). There was a poll 6 months ago

> that had numbers more or less the same.

Not now - Brexit hasn't worked it's way through yet.

Another poll once we see the true result in 2019 or 2020.

ironically for the people to see what Brexit is like it has to be delivered.

[red devil]

As a Remainer it definitely feels like being stuck between a rock and a hard place. I sometimes feel like, ok, let's have the Hard Brexit and the shitstorm that follows, at least that way the Brexit idea can be put to bed once and for all. With a soft Brexit it'll be, ''well. it wasn't so bad after all, let's stick with it etc''. Even with a 2nd ref on the terms of a deal, we'll never get back in with the same benefits we currently have. We're going to be worse off whatever happens...

[red devil]

Right on cue. Let the fookers piss in their pants... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-leave-voters-uk-economy-damage-yougov-older-pensioners-losing-jobs-income-taxes-a7870871.html

[BrandNewGuy]

And yet people had a go at Theresa May for suggesting the removal of the triple lock on pensions and the end of the universal winter fuel allowance. I thought both ideas were eminently sensible, so long as the very poorest pensioners would be no worse off.

[JoeLeg]

Of course they think it's ok to fuck up the country; they won't have to deal with it.

Wish I was surprised by that, but I'm not. They're totally happy to patronise and be condescending to younger people who will have to clean up the mess they've made, and have no idea of what they're doing.

[JohnL]

BrandNewGuy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> And yet people had a go at Theresa May for

> suggesting the removal of the triple lock on

> pensions and the end of the universal winter fuel

> allowance. I thought both ideas were eminently

> sensible, so long as the very poorest pensioners

> would be no worse off.

Maybe sensible - but I don't really mind making sure average pensioners

are doing OK - as hopefully we'll all be pensioners eventually..

But I don't understand there adherence to us as being an empire - older

people when I was 12 used to think that but these people are only 20

years older than me.

[JohnL]

JoeLeg Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Of course they think it's ok to @#$%& up the

> country; they won't have to deal with it.

>

> Wish I was surprised by that, but I'm not. They're

> totally happy to patronise and be condescending to

> younger people who will have to clean up the mess

> they've made, and have no idea of what they're

> doing.

But these are the Woodstock generation - how did it come to this.

[red devil]

Too many uppers and downers has finally sent them doolally...

[Loz]

I think the Indy has started to go all Gruniad. Not sure how this got past the subs:

"The survey is likely to add to the anger of younger people at the referendum result and the fallout. Only over-50s voted for Brexit last year."

[red devil]

That's nothing compared to how the Kevin Myers' BBC article in the Times made it through to print. Staggering...

[JohnL]

red devil Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> That's nothing compared to how the Kevin Myers'

> BBC article in the Times made it through to print.

> Staggering...

When I worked in media they made the sub editors redundant.

I mean does Donald Trump get somebody to check his tweets :)

[JohnL]

Ireland looks more and more like it's had enough of Brexiteers threatening it's economy and is getting more forceful.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ultrasoft-brexit-called-for-to-honour-dublin-north-agreements-1.3172831

If we start splitting NI off from the UK we're heading towards a United Ireland at some point in the future IMHO ?.

[Sue]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> But these are the Woodstock generation - how did

> it come to this.

I'm of that era.

There were a lot of people my age around who weren't dyed in the wool peace and love man hippies, believe it or not :))

[JohnL]

The EU-27 now believe that the UK is so unbelievably crap at the negotiations that it must be a cunning plan and a trap for them.

http://www.politico.eu/article/united-kingdom-brexit-eu-david-davis-the-uks-secret-brexit-strategy-so-stealth-even-the-british-cant-see-it/

[red devil]

I posed that hypothetical question last week...What if no plan is the Hard Brexiteers' plan?

This article highlights how difficult it's going to be to get any form of Brexit through a Commons vote. Which could mean that No Deal or a 2nd Referendum are the only viable options left... https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/second-brexit-referendum-case-getting-stronger-political-deadlock-life-raft

[Alan Medic]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/05/uk-ready-pay-40bn-brexit-bill-eu-talks-trade/

According to Andrew Marr on Twitter this morning, this headline is the real reason there was a GE this year.

[Jenny1]

So an upfront cost of at least 36 billion in order to win the right to be poorer.

What a good thing many leave voters (61 per cent I think the last poll suggests) now say they don't mind taking an economic hit to leave the EU.

So, putting aside the long term ongoing costs they'll be happy to meet, a one off payment will be demanded shortly. 61 per cent of 17.4 million people gives us 10.6 million people willing to foot the bill. By my calculations that means a very reasonable initial payment of 3.3 million. Some may not have the cash to hand but low interest rates and their willingness (as shown in recent polls) that their families should also take an economic hit means some kind of cross-generational loan scheme should ensure that by the time their great great great grandchildren come along they'll only be paying the long term ongoing costs.

[red devil]

I can't read all of that pay-for article, so all I can gather from it is that the UK has to pay the 'divorce bill' before meaningful talks can commence, but hasn't that been the EU's position all along since the Ref? Why would that be the real reason there was a GE?...

[JoeLeg]

The word around Whitehall for several weeks now has been that the UK govt is willing to pay ?10bn per year for three years on which we still have access to the Single Market during the 'translational phase', plus a final payment. Quite how this squares with the ending of free movement in 2019 I don't know, but perhaps the EU is willing to deal over that.

I think May hopes to win a solid majority in order to be able to override any Remain rebellion and force through a hard deal, but now has to face up to being willing to be flexible. Could be wrong though...

[red devil]

The general consensus at the time was that May was being opportunistic in calling the election due to the polls, and indeed it was a chance to give herself a clear majority/mandate to proceed with Brexit on her terms i.e. ''No deal is better than a bad deal''. There was also the bonus that with a clear majority they would likely serve the full 5 years unopposed, thus buying themselves an extra 2 years post-Brexit. I'm not sure why the 'divorce bill' would be the 'real reason' to call the GE. May said many times about there not being a need for a GE, and the 'divorce bill' was well known when she said this...

[Alan Medic]

Marr was commenting on the headline and in his tweet said it was a major problem for the Tories. I think it's the fact that they knew a large brexit bill was coming that they thought getting a bigger majority as most expected they would, would help ease the breaking of this news.

So it's more to do with the amount of it. The foreign secretary did after all say the EU would have to whistle for their money. It's interesting that this news breaks when they're all on holiday.

[Jenny1]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> So it's more to do with the amount of it. The

> foreign secretary did after all say the EU would

> have to whistle for their money. It's interesting

> that this news breaks when they're all on holiday.

Yes. Isn't this the first time there's been an official acknowledgement of an actual figure? They've been happy to be vague before, which has allowed the 'we won't pay a penny' tone of Boris' 'Go whistle' comments. They must have known that once real figures started to be talked about they'd be in trouble and hence wanted to go to the polls early.

[red devil]

400...