Brexit View

[poch]

Very aware of the London bubble etc but I wonder whether 'anti EU feeling outside of London runs deep and sincere'. Were people in Cornwall and Darlington etc really sitting around in the pub in the years leading up to the vote complaining about the EU and British loss of sovereignty? I'm not so sure. Immigration is obviously a real issue for some, and Remainers need either to make the case for a) the benefits of immigration or b) - with a heavy heart - the Belgium model ie an example of an EU country which has much tougher immigration policies and has the remit to enact these within the bounds of EU law.

[Blah Blah]

But that is exactly the point Poch. There has been anti EU headlines going back decades blaming every woe of the land on the EU. The ref campaign did little to offer any kind of detailed, informative and balanced debate either. Those people in Cornwall never for once considered the massive annual subsidy given to them by the EU, if they even knew about it.

[JoeLeg]

poch Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Very aware of the London bubble etc but I wonder

> whether 'anti EU feeling outside of London runs

> deep and sincere'. Were people in Cornwall and

> Darlington etc really sitting around in the pub in

> the years leading up to the vote complaining about

> the EU and British loss of sovereignty?

Yes, yes they were, and you didn?t have to go that far to encounter such feeling. I ran into some fairly vitriolic UKIP style opinions not far south of Sevenoaks, for example, about fifteen years ago. There?s a definite irony in the EU money which is enriched the very regions which then told it to sod off, but for a lot of rural UK the EU has long been the reason for all the worlds ills.

I'm not

> so sure. Immigration is obviously a real issue

> for some, and Remainers need either to make the

> case for a) the benefits of immigration or b) -

> with a heavy heart - the Belgium model ie an

> example of an EU country which has much tougher

> immigration policies and has the remit to enact

> these within the bounds of EU law.

A perfect example of how most of our problems are of our own making.

[JohnL]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> But that is exactly the point Poch. There has been

> anti EU headlines going back decades blaming every

> woe of the land on the EU. The ref campaign did

> little to offer any kind of detailed, informative

> and balanced debate either. Those people in

> Cornwall never for once considered the massive

> annual subsidy given to them by the EU, if they

> even knew about it.

In Wales the EU somehow got seen as the establishment.

To me the EU is not the establishment and the likes of Guy Verhofstadt are more of rebels singeing Theresa Mays leopard skin print shoes.

[Blah Blah]

Guy Verhofstadt actually talks a lot of sense and has a clear idea of how a transitionary phase could be used to negotiate trade for example.

[Loz]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Except the demographics of leave voters swing

> hugely to the over 45's and no-one in their right

> mind seriously thinks pensioners are going to be

> out rioting.

It's really only the under 25s/over 65s that showed a dramatic difference. Plus voting demographics can be looked at in a number of ways: north vs south, higher vs lower educated - even salary levels seemed to play a part. And, as we learnt in London, it doesn't actually need a lot of people to create a riot.

Sadly, I think we will need to wait until it actually goes pear-shaped before full realisation of the Brexit mess will be understood. And just as sadly, it is now far too late to try and understand what exactly concerned Brexit voters and try to at least meet them somewhere in the middle.

It seems to be the age we are in - first Brexit, then Trump... next will probably be Corbyn. The era of the extreme kneejerk vote that, in the end, causes more damage than good to exactly those that voted for it. It seems so recent that we complained that all the parties were too samey and close to the centre. If only we had that 'problem' again. As they say, be careful what you wish for.

[JohnL]

I did see recently see that 25 to 54 year olds swing to Labour 50% to 28% (Survation) - that's just huge for the majority of the working/mortgage paying population group. Labour's stance is still pro Brexit but is also Pro Customs Union now (and I reckon it would become pro single market).

Some of the current polling breakdowns for brexit here and it's still split down the middle

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/jan/26/guardian-icm-brexit-poll-full-results

[Earl Aelfheah]

It's crazy that it's only in the over 65 group that 'leave' voters are in the majority. As those in the over 65 group pop their clogs and more and more in the under 18 age group reach voting age, the swing to remain is going to grow. It makes the prospect of a significant and increasing remain majority at the end of the 'implementation period' quite likely.

[Loz]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Labour's stance is still pro Brexit but is also Pro Customs Union now (and

> I reckon it would become pro single market).

Labour's Brexit stance can basically be summed up as "Ummmmm, dunno...".

[JoeLeg]

Labour is screwed on Brexit, as so many of its MP?s are heftily pro-Remain, amd so much of its heartland voted Leave, and they didn?t see it coming.

Since then they?ve basically been floundering, though in fairness so have a lot of their voters, who also can?t square the circle of being a Labour supporter in a Brexit Britain.

[SpringTime]

JoeLeg Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Labour is screwed on Brexit, as so many of its

> MP?s are heftily pro-Remain, amd so much of its

> heartland voted Leave, and they didn?t see it

> coming.

>

> Since then they?ve basically been floundering,

> though in fairness so have a lot of their voters,

> who also can?t square the circle of being a Labour

> supporter in a Brexit Britain.

My last two votes were for Labour and for Leave, and I (should) have no issue with it!

[JoeLeg]

Yeah, well, Labour have no idea what their Brexit position is, so at the next GE you may have a conundrum to solve - it is frankly impossible to know how Corbyn et al would handle all this - a lot of their stated aims are at variance with the undeniable sentiment that drove large swathes of the Leave vote.

I would respect Corbyn far more if he simply admitted that he supports Leave; he's fudged the issue from day one and it's left much of the Labour party without coherent leadership right when it needs it, thus rendering them null as an effective opposition. Starmer, McDonnell and others all hold varying views - and while I accept the same is true of the Tories, they at least are closer to having a workable policy.

Labour is not squarely behind Brexit; I would trust the local scout troop to handle negotiations more than I would trust them. Yes, I'm being sarcastic and hyperbolic, but frankly I don't look at Labour these days and see a party capable of bringing the country together. They woke up on the 24th June and realised how out of touch they were with their base, and have bee frantically trying to figure it out ever since. So far they have not succeeded.

[Blah Blah]

But this is also true of the government who have no majority. Labour are not in power so don't have to actually do anything or settle on any one direction right now. I completely agree though that Corbyn has fudged the issue from day one of his leadership. He has always been a eurosceptic in a party that is not. But even the governments own findings say there is no economic benefit to leaving the EU. The only question is how long it takes leave voters to understand this.

[JoeLeg]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> But this is also true of the government who have

> no majority. Labour are not in power so don't have

> to actually do anything or settle on any one

> direction right now.

I see your point, which I way I say that voters such as Springtime may find themselves with a dilemma at the next GE, as by then they will have to present a coherent policy, and to judge from what they have said thus far I believe they are still out of step with many Leave voters within their base; personally I would rather they had something now, but there we have it.

I completely agree though

> that Corbyn has fudged the issue from day one of

> his leadership. He has always been a eurosceptic

> in a party that is not. But even the governments

> own findings say there is no economic benefit to

> leaving the EU. The only question is how long it

> takes leave voters to understand this.

We should remember that many Leave voters have been clear that they understood the likelihood of economic hardship and that they believe it a price worth paying in the short to medium term, for what they believe will be a better UK in the long term (I sincerely hope they are right, now that we have been set on this course). A significant portion of Leave votes were from the older generation, who have seen many cycles of boom and bust (including the disastrous 70's) and are aware that we generally come through these things.

Personally (and this is just my personal view, I'm not an economist), I don't think anyone can predict how the future will unfurl. The same people (on both sides) who confidently predict one outcome or another are also the ones who reject outright any reasoned discussion or well-researched point of view which runs contrary to their own, and a lot of people, again on both sides, are unwilling to be swayed by any survey, study or report, no matter it's provenance or reliability. This was badly handled from the outset, and the recriminations on both sides will run deep for some time.

[Blah Blah]

And that older generation probably won't live to see the consequences of their vote. They are harking back to some mythical era that never really exisited, the post war boom, as though that is some fixed model that can be regained and maintained forever. As you say, economies cycle, and that is the case whether we are part of the EU or not. There is no logic to the idea that the EU is the source of so many woes. I would go further and say that many leave voters didn't even consider the economics, or had no understanding of that.

I agree that the divisions will run deep for a long time, but I disagree that predictors of outcomes are those who reject reasoned and well researched views. It is the lack of research and in some case downright deliberate lies that have put us in this mess. Those who do know what they were talking about were rejected - experts were belittled. And the real source of our woes, an inbalanced economy where big business offshores huge amounts of money out of the economy, is not going to change because we leave the EU.

[JohnL]

Unilever off to Rotterdam, or anywhere.

Saying no job losses.

[poch]

Latest OECD forecasts for 2019 show UK as the slowest growing economy (behind Italy) in G20. We've gone from top to bottom of the league of G7 leading economies since 2016, and sterling has dipped to its lowest level in over thirty years. Genuinely interested to hear the counter-argument which suggests British economy is performing well? Would welcome good news! The economic hardship stuff was the ballast of the Remainers' argument during the campaign (and was probably over-egged by Cam and Osborne) but Farage, Gove et al rubbished those arguments as 'project fear', belittled experts as blahblah says, and Liam Fox spent a lot of time talking about all the trade deals he'd have sown up by now.

Caroline Lucas spoke very well yesterday about her incredulity re. the UK government knowingly and 'proudly' leading us towards a policy they now understand will certainly be economically detrimental. Heard someone on a podcast making the joke about the captain of the Titanic seeing the iceberg, heading straight for it...

[Alan Medic]

Chris Grayling on QT from Dover last night said there won't be any checks post Brexit on vehicles departing the UK. How does that work then? Appears to be a blatant lie.

[Blah Blah]

There might be no checks on vehicles leaving but what about their entry point into the EU zone? They are making it up as they go along. NOTHING has been agreed with the EU yet, nothing at all. This is why we need some kind of customs union agreement. Without it, we face a hard border to everywhere.

[BrandNewGuy]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> They are

> harking back to some mythical era that never

> really exisited, the post war boom, as though that

> is some fixed model that can be regained and

> maintained forever.

Agreed the model might be bust, but the boom for ordinary people was not mythical. The rise in real incomes between the 50s and the late 70s was real and made real differences to ordinary people's lives. The same can't be said of the last 30 years for those on the lowest incomes.

[Earl Aelfheah]

I just don't have the energy to debate Brexit anymore. There is no point in discussing it with those who have the same view and for most Brexiters, there is no logic or reason involved anymore. It's now an article of unshiftable faith. What is the point.

[Blah Blah]

BrandNewGuy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Blah Blah Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> Agreed the model might be bust, but the boom for

> ordinary people was not mythical. The rise in real

> incomes between the 50s and the late 70s was real

> and made real differences to ordinary people's

> lives. The same can't be said of the last 30 years

> for those on the lowest incomes.

Agreed, but the EU is not the cause of the decline and leaving it won't change the pressure of a global market in which the east and China are the new industrial powers.

[JohnL]

Whil'st we're all distracted by Russia - The Ireland question has been put on the back burner and

"A series of intensive three-way talks among EU, UK and Irish officials will take place in the next four weeks. But there are moves at Westminster to settle the issue by voting to instruct Theresa May to seek to continue membership of the customs union, which would render border controls unnecessary."

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/irish-border-problem-put-on-ice-to-help-brexit-deal-a3792011.html

[JohnL]

Transition agreement signed - the UK appears to have capitulated again (even on the thing no British PM could sign up to - but only as a back stop - so shhh)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/19/uk-and-eu-agree-terms-for-brexit-transition-deal

[JohnL]

Entrapment agency complains about use of entrapment

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/19/cambridge-analytica-execs-boast-dirty-tricks-honey-traps-elections