Brexit View

[malumbu]

Do explain why please - not trolling but want to get your views on the subject.

[JoeLeg]

Because to be fair - and I say this as someone who in some ways is not a fan of Lammy - he?s right about an awful lot of stuff there.

Unfortunately I think it?s too late, and personally I think a second referendum is even more of a gamble than the first, in many ways.

[Earl Aelfheah]

The government has spent almost 3 years focused on little other than Brexit. It's already cost us huge amounts of money and who knows the additional opportunity cost. We can't even agree the withdrawal terms. We haven't even started on our future relationship. That's when the real fun will start (assuming the withdrawal agreement get's the wave through). We're at a total impasse.

[JoeLeg]

rahrahrah Wrote:

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That's when the real fun will

> start (assuming the withdrawal agreement get's the

> wave through).

It?s not going to get through. Not with a wave, a nudge or big old shove between the shoulder blades. And yes, that is indeed when the ?fun? starts.

I would at least have a modicum of respect go those Leavers who now want No Deal if they?d been open about the risks beforehand, but all we got from them were assurances that this would be smooth and easy. At least, so long as the EU did what they wanted. But of course the RU is going to make it hard for us. How they didn?t spot that I don?t know. But it suits them to blame the EU for everything, and they?ll keep doing it even after we?ve left.

We're at a total impasse.

This is very true.

[diable rouge]

Although a staunch Remainer (hardened after May's red lines), I, and I suspect a lot of Remainers, would've initially accepted a Brexit that reflected the closeness of the vote, i.e. something akin to the Norway deal, whereby we keep the benefits of being in a CU, thus solving the Irish border problem, and also maintain FOM. But Brextremists like Johnson and Davis got greedy, egged on by a frothing right wing press, and pressured May into her Mansion House speech and those red lines. Add in triggering A50 without a plan, then losing her majority at the snap GE, we have ended up in the mess we have. All of their own doing. Meanwhile, the Brextremists have continued to move the Brexit goal posts so that they're now on a completely different pitch with talk of No Deal. This was never the form of Brexit that was proposed pre-referendum, so it's unacceptable to propose it now, and hopefully Parliament will ensure it never happens. However, it's the legal default if May's fudge deal is rejected as seems likely, so the only way out of this impasse is to revoke A50. There isn't enough time to do anything else. There's talk about extending A50 to July, but the EU have previously indicated that they would only do that for a genuine reason such as a GE or 2nd ref, not to carry on kicking the can down the road.

Until Brexit came along the world saw us as a sensible, pragmatic nation, we could do with some of that now...

[JoeLeg]

No Deal isn?t just the legal default; it?s now the preferred option of most Leave voters, when compared to May?s Deal. FOM is a red line for many, many Leave voters and they will happily swallow anything in order to stop it. May and Corbyn both know that to oppose them is suicide at a GE.

(The fact that non-EU immigration is rising seems to be ignored...)

To revoke A50 will be similar suicide, so they aren?t going to do that either.

I?m starting to think it?ll be a snap GE or No Deal.

[Earl Aelfheah]

diable rouge Wrote:

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> Although a staunch Remainer (hardened after May's

> red lines), I, and I suspect a lot of Remainers,

> would've initially accepted a Brexit that

> reflected the closeness of the vote, i.e.

> something akin to the Norway deal, whereby we keep

> the benefits of being in a CU, thus solving the

> Irish border problem, and also maintain FOM. But

> Brextremists like Johnson and Davis got greedy,

> egged on by a frothing right wing press, and

> pressured May into her Mansion House speech and

> those red lines. Add in triggering A50 without a

> plan, then losing her majority at the snap GE, we

> have ended up in the mess we have. All of their

> own doing. Meanwhile, the Brextremists have

> continued to move the Brexit goal posts so that

> they're now on a completely different pitch with

> talk of No Deal. This was never the form of Brexit

> that was proposed pre-referendum, so it's

> unacceptable to propose it now, and hopefully

> Parliament will ensure it never happens. However,

> it's the legal default if May's fudge deal is

> rejected as seems likely, so the only way out of

> this impasse is to revoke A50. There isn't enough

> time to do anything else. There's talk about

> extending A50 to July, but the EU have previously

> indicated that they would only do that for a

> genuine reason such as a GE or 2nd ref, not to

> carry on kicking the can down the road.

> Until Brexit came along the world saw us as a

> sensible, pragmatic nation, we could do with some

> of that now...

I completely agree.

[diable rouge]

JoeLeg Wrote:

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> No Deal isn?t just the legal default; it?s now the

> preferred option of most Leave voters, when

> compared to May?s Deal.

That's an important caveat, every option becomes the preferred option when up against May's deal. I suppose we should be grateful she's managed to unite the country on at least one thing.

The latest YouGov poll taken a few days ago with a 25,000 sample, shows Remain at 58% v No Deal at 42%.

> FOM is a red line for

> many, many Leave voters and they will happily

> swallow anything in order to stop it. May and

> Corbyn both know that to oppose them is suicide at

> a GE.

That's a common perception but I've seen a few post-ref surveys that don't back it up. I recall one that said FOM/immigration was 5th on the list of people's concerns, I think the economy was top.

This survey...https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/10/freedom-of-movement-theresa-may-immigration ...reports that ''just 31% of leave voters want a sharp reduction in EU immigration'', that's 31% of 52%, just over 15%, not such a big number when you break it down. Incidentally, that's around the figure UKIP was polling in the 2015 GE.

> (The fact that non-EU immigration is rising seems

> to be ignored...)

Yep, it's definitely a strange one. To me immigration/FOM was a convenient stick with which to hit the EU, nothing more.

> To revoke A50 will be similar suicide, so they

> aren?t going to do that either.

My point is they may have no other choice if they want to avoid the legal default of No Deal. Avoiding No Deal is the one option where there's actually a clear majority in the HoC.

Personally I think A50 will be extended because it's a continuation of the 'kicking the can down the road' strategy, but the EU will want a genuine reason to do that.

> I?m starting to think it?ll be a snap GE or No Deal.

Only Corbyn wants an election. If he puts in a 'No Confidence' vote after May's deal sinks tonight, he will get beaten. His best chance of success would be if he offered Tory Remainers a 2nd ref as part of a GE deal, otherwise they will vote for the Tories to stay in power. DUP would never side with him for obvious reasons, plus they won't want give up all the control and power they currently have...

[fishbiscuits]

TheCat Wrote:

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> fishbiscuits Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> > This is exactly it. I actually asked our Brexit

> > planner what would happen if Brexit didn't

> > materialize, and his answer was basically... it

> > doesn't make any difference now. We're past the

> > point of no return. People have been

> > hired/fired/moved, premises have been acquired and

> > fitted out, licenses have been obtained.

>

> So there's two ways to look at this statement. On

> the one hand it sounds very negative, but on the

> other if what you're saying is right, then the

> majority of the economic impact for those

> companies properly prepared has already been felt

> (ie. People have already been moved or fired) and

> the sompany isn't yet in civil war. That surely is

> incrementally positive for what might happen in

> the event of no deal? On the flip side of course

> is those businesses that haven't prepared....

It's hard to tell really. No matter how much planning you do, the impact on the wider economy is still an unknown.

And as you say.. not every business can afford the luxury of in-depth contingency planning, setting up new outposts in the EU, etc...

[JoeLeg]

Let me say clearly - I have no idea where this is going to end up. Pragmatism and common sense have taken a back seat to ?red lines? and dogmatic declarations of what Brexit should mean.

I think there?s a growing movement for No Deal, especially amoungst the public. People want to Leave, whatever the cost, and who knows, maybe we?ll be ok? I certainly don?t know.

However, this feels less like kicking a can down the road and more like we?ve painted ourselves into a corner, There simply is no way to find a compromise that will satisfy everyone, or even one that everyone can live with. Someone is going to be really angry. I just have no idea who it will be.

Extending A50 is possible, and maybe Germany will renegotiate - that might be enough. What I think it will depend on is whether May resigns or not. She can?t be forced out right now, but she might do a Cameron and walk. Unlikely though. But I can?t see how she can come back with any better deal second time around?

It?s really all guesswork at this point. I?m feeling really pessimistic about it all, which is probably why I reckon it?ll be No Deal. Don?t listen to me, it?ll probably be fine...!

[Blah Blah]

She can of course call a 2nd ref arguing that the people should decide on the deal if parliament can't. And Labour are cornered into voting it through if there is no GE by their own membership and conference motion. I think that is where we are heading to be honest, along with an extension to A50 to facilitate it.

[JohnL]

German MEP (Hans-Olaf Henkel) seems to be doing the rounds of Radio and TV saying that the UK should be offered a special status deal within the EU where we control migration (I thought we already did) and some other things.

Farage - more war comparisons

"Former UKIP leader Nigel Farage says Theresa May has shown a "total failure of leadership", and has acted like the leader of a "nation defeated in war".

"If she had any sense of honour, she'd be gone by lunchtime today," he adds."

[JoeLeg]

Yeah, says Farage who has never had to actually form policy, lead a party in actual power, or in any way be responsible for anything other than protesting against existing situations.

Easy to yell when you aren?t the one having to make decisions. He?s never had to make any decision of consequence in his political life.

[JohnL]

Cross Party Talks without Corbyn hmmm.

They may not like each other much but that isn't going to work (May seems to want to peel away Yvette Cooper and the heads of committees)

[Jules-and-Boo]

It would be ludicrous for her to forced out or call a 2nd Ref. A General Election would also not serve any purpose other than to create more instability. These would only delay the inevitable fact that a decision needs to be made and that is to exit the EU.

This will continue, there will be an extension to A50 and we will secure an exit closer to no deal.

[diable rouge]

JoeLeg Wrote:

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> Yeah, says Farage who has never had to actually

> form policy, lead a party in actual power, or in

> any way be responsible for anything other than

> protesting against existing situations.

>

> Easy to yell when you aren?t the one having to

> make decisions. He?s never had to make any

> decision of consequence in his political life.

Instead of wheeling him out for jingoistic soundbites, journalists should be taking him to task as to how he managed to lead a party who's sole aim was to leave the EU, yet never had a plan as to how that would be implemented. Ditto the DUP saying they want a hard Brexit but no hard border, the two are incompatible.

Whichever Labour 'strategist' came up with the plan of ''we'll keep triggering no confidence motions in the Gov until we get an election'', needs to take a look at a calendar...

[diable rouge]

Jules-and-Boo Wrote:

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> It would be ludicrous for her to forced out or

> call a 2nd Ref.

Extremely unlikely she will lose a No-Confidence vote brought about by the opposition. The only reason I can see that happening is if No Deal looked very likely to happen unless the Gov was brought down...(Opinion)

She also can't be forced out by her own party. After winning the confidence vote brought about by her own party, they're stuck with her as leader for the next 12 months...(Fact)

> A General Election would also not

> serve any purpose other than to create more

> instability. These would only delay the inevitable

> fact that a decision needs to be made and that is

> to exit the EU.

That isn't a 'fact', it's your opinion...

[Jules-and-Boo]

Clearly this is not fact - there is very little 'fact' to what will happen - it's all conjecture.

If I was a betting man, I know where I would put my money.

[DulwichFox]

There MIGHT be a general Election.

Corbyn MIGHT win.

If he does he will Kiss Brexit better and everything will be Wonderful....

... and everyone will live happily ever after.

DulwichFox

[Jules-and-Boo]

it is indeed possible.

[diable rouge]

Jules-and-Boo Wrote:

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> If I was a betting man, I know where I would put

> my money.

Go on, you know you want to...https://twitter.com/ChrisJones_1/status/1085518256792834049

[JohnL]

diable rouge Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Jules-and-Boo Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> > If I was a betting man, I know where I would

> put

> > my money.

>

> Go on, you know you want

> to...https://twitter.com/ChrisJones_1/status/10855

> 18256792834049

It won't pay if there's an extension obviously.

[sjsl]

I'm a bit baffled by Corbin et al wanting a GE... although I was a supporter and helped put him where he is now I won't vote Labour if they don't change their 'Brexit is the will of the people' stance. Am I alone on this?

[diable rouge]

JohnL Wrote:

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> Cross Party Talks without Corbyn hmmm.

>

> They may not like each other much but that isn't

> going to work (May seems to want to peel away

> Yvette Cooper and the heads of committees)

It would help if Corbyn had a Brexit policy to discuss...

[Blah Blah]

Corbyn wants a GE because he misguidedly thinks he will win it (even though the polling says he won't and his personal ratings are way down from where they need to be to look like being the next PM - always behind May in fact, and she is not in great shape either). Political expediency is the reason we were given this referendum, and political expediency is shaping much of what is going on in Parliament right now. Both main parties have half an eye on the next GE and both parties need both leave voters and remain voters to vote for them to win it. THAT is the problem, compounded by the referendum not delivering a definitive result either way. Two years have been completely wasted, with no effort to find consensus either within Parliament or among the people. I can see no other way to get a deal through the House than a 2nd referendum right now, and who knows how that will turn out.