Brexit View

[diable rouge]

What mandate there was after the referendum was lost when Theresa May decided to hold a snap GE based on her red lines, and failed. However, it seems our democracy can be bought...

[Sephiroth]

Doesn't even need buying - seems there are enough punters out there happy enough to not ask any questions and wave the whole thing thru, ignoring precedent from other countries

Bluster and arrogance - all it takes to screw a country

[Jules-and-Boo]

well, not really true. We had a referendum (not a frequent thing) and then we're doing what the referendum vote decided on, although it's proving tricky as EU think a proposal amounts to a done-deal and this proposal was rejected as not in our best interests.

True that a number of people think that it doesn't count or that we can have another one until there is a different result (best out of three?) but that doesn't really matter. There is always lots of 'noise'.

[Alan Medic]

I believe in Canada it's enshrined in their law that any referendum has to involve a vote on clearly defined options. That certainly didn't happen here in the case of Leave (we all knew what we voted for nonsense)vote.

[Sephiroth]

"well, not really true"

sorry but it's exactly true - and all you have to do is look at other countries with more practice in referendums

It's tricky to implement the referendum result because it's impossible to do - that leave vote contains at least 3 groups of mutually antagonistic types of leaver. They will never agree on what they want or will compromise on

All brexits lead to a worse off country

to say it's because of the EU is... well.. bluster and arrogance at best. Ignorance is involved too. Sorry - but it is

[keano77]

You?re on dodgy ground about referendums Sephiroth given Ireland?s form in voting twice on the Nice and Lisbon treaties

[Sephiroth]

Why does that put me on dodgy ground? It's exactly the point I'm making

A country took a poll, reviewed the changes and outcome and took a second poll

democracy didn't fall

people didn't riot

Support for EU remained high

that's a mature process - the opposite of this country

[keano77]

If you say so ...

[Sephiroth]

which bit is "say so"

Which bit are you struggling with?

[JohnL]

I see a stitch up coming whilst the papers talk about Tusk. May must be coming under pressure.

"Speaking after a meeting with the prime minister in Brussels, Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt said ?we welcome? the letter the Labour leader had sent to the prime minister laying out his party?s alternative proposals.

?We have reiterated that we cannot have an agreement with uncertainty in the UK based on majorities of six, seven, eight, nine votes in the House of Commons,?"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-jeremy-corbyn-verhofstadt-labour-european-parliament-theresa-may-backstop-a8767931.html

[keano77]

I?m not struggling at all. It?s fantasy* to think the people reviewed their decision spontaneously.

The facts were your political masters in Ireland and Europe made you vote again because the people gave what they considered the wrong answers.

(* see what I did there)

[Sephiroth]

"I?m not struggling at all. It?s fantasy* to think the people reviewed their decision spontaneously.

The facts were your political masters in Ireland and Europe made you vote again because the people gave what they considered the wrong answers. "

This is what I mean by delusional - this is pure tin foil nonsense

If "our political masters in Ireland and Europe made you vote again" then why would the second vote reverse teh first by such a large margin - seriously, why?

And if it was fixed somehow, why weren't people protesting?

And why has support for EU membership remained so high?

You simply don't have any answers - because you live in a made up world

[robbin]

He/she said with not even a hint of irony!

[Sephiroth]

I'm pointing at real world examples - what are you doing?

[JohnL]

Will be dismissed as EU propaganda I know but "Asking the public twice: why do voters change their minds in second referendums on EU treaties?" by Ece ?zlem Atikcan LSE

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/10/19/asking-the-public-twice-why-do-voters-change-their-minds-in-second-referendums-on-eu-treaties/

actually more of a why than whether they should - but implies there's a democracy to multiple votes in complex matters to me :)

[diable rouge]

keano77 Wrote:

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> The facts were your political masters in Ireland

> and Europe made you vote again because the people

> gave what they considered the wrong answers.

I think you'll find that they realised they asked the wrong question, hence the wrong answer. Once they got the question right, so they got the right answer...:)

[keano77]

Hey, you?re the one who plays fantasy games not me.

Without giving you a history lesson and going into too much detail, your political masters won some legal guarantees from the EU and re-framed the second referendum debates. Project fear also played a part in the Lisbon referendum mark II at least where Yes slogans such as ?Europe: Let?s be at the heart of it? were replaced with more dramatic messages such as ?Ruin versus recovery?.

[Sephiroth]

You are just restating your original point - the Irish voters were mugged off. At no point do you address the outcome of that second vote - where Ireland continues to be a democracy, no angry voters and EU membership

Why would it be bad if that happened here?

[keano77]

Unfortunately Sephiroth, unlike Ireland which won firm legal guarantees from the EU which satisfied the reservations of the voters, I can?t see the EU giving us firm legal guarantees that Prevent us being trapped by the backstop. As such any second referendum now would only be a re-run of the first.

It was a mistake not to discuss a trade deal in parallel with the withdrawal agreement as a trade deal favourable to both parties might negate the need for a backstop. But we are where we are.

The EU?s insistence on the backstop implies a favourable trade deal is unlikely.

[Sephiroth]

"The EU?s insistence on the backstop "

It was Britain which insisted on the backstop - and the EU budged to allow it in Dec 2017. But of COURSE people like you have to keep blaming others - you just can't admit it was a bad, bad mistake

Plenty of people have released their mistake* - but of course people like you would deny them the agency to express that.

* How many? Enough to change the vote? If only there was a way to measure it

[JohnL]

Sephiroth Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> "The EU?s insistence on the backstop "

>

> It was Britain which insisted on the backstop -

> and the EU budged to allow it in Dec 2017. But of

> COURSE people like you have to keep blaming others

> - you just can't admit it was a bad, bad mistake

>

> Plenty of people have released their mistake* -

> but of course people like you would deny them the

> agency to express that.

>

> * How many? Enough to change the vote? If only

> there was a way to measure it

We have 2.5 years of youngsters coming to voting age since June 2016 mainly supporting remain. This has already been proven to surpass the 2016 lead.

[Sephiroth]

"We have 2.5 years of youngsters coming to voting age since June 2016 mainly supporting remain. This has already been proven to surpass the 2016 lead."

I'm not sure how much faith we could put in that number alone - but again without another poll we can never know

It's entirely Britain's fault that a second ref would essentially be a rerun of the first one - it never had any cards to play in the first place, has been outclassed every step of the way and was always going to be

If it does go ahead with leaving, then it will continue to be outclassed in future trade deals with other large nations - but again, it simply can't admit it

[keano77]

I think you?re right, it was our negotiating team that came up with the backstop as a possible solution to the border issue.

I would be prepared to accept the backstop if there was a short time limit on it. As it stands there is little incentive for the EU to negotiate an all encompassing trade deal

[Sephiroth]

"I would be prepared to accept the backstop if there was a short time limit on it"

Then it isn't a backstop is it?

Try getting a 25 year mortgage with a time limit on the obligation to pay back

But inventing ever more elaborate wangles to try and squeeze smallest possible concessions is all so pointless - it's all risk and little reward

[JohnL]

The EU have said they'll help May on the backstop if she removes some red lines - but at present that seems to be the Customs Union.

ALl this horsetrading will have an effect on Westminster and I'm still tempted to say rip up the book and lets start from scratch whatever happens with Brexit. Our system hasn't been good enough for this.