Brexit View

[robbin]

Sephiroth Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Not sure we can call Larry Elliott an objective

> voice on Brexit matters - he's hardcore lexiter

Predictable denial - what is not objective about the economic data?! Has Larry Elliott made those figures up then as part of the pro-Brexit conspiracy?

Do you deny the figures that are quoted? Do you disagree that Germany is following Italy into recession?

(the latest figures come from Deutsche Bank and the German government)

[robbin]

In anticipation of a predictable suggestion that the Italy/EU figures are some sort of pro-Brexit conspiracy, this is from a Vice President of the European Commission (taken from CNBC):

With its immense debt pile and potential budget blowout, Italy is a risk first and foremost to itself, Valdis Dombrovskis, a vice president at the European Commission told CNBC.

"Fragility in Italy's economy needs to be addressed," Dombrovski told CNBC's Willem Marx in Brussels Wednesday.

"Given the high level of Italy's public debt, and Italy has the highest debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio in the EU after Greece, it's important that Italy puts its debt-to-GDP ratio on a downwards trajectory. And this is something which we have (been) consistently emphasizing and we think that this is important," he said.

Italy's debt pile of 2.3 trillion euros ($2.6 trillion) is "first and foremost (it's) a risk factor for Italy itself, but one that needs to be addressed," he added.

Italy's 2019 spending plans, that have caused a furor in recent months with the Commission ? the EU's executive arm ? were one area of particular concern, he noted.

Dombrovskis' comments come as the European Commission cut its forecast for Italy's growth in 2019 to 0.2 percent, from a previous prediction (made last November) of 1.2 percent. In 2020, it predicts Italy's economy will grow 0.8 percent.

The Commission also lowered its prospects for the euro area as a whole. The 19-member bloc is set to grow 1.3 percent this year, from a previous forecast of 1.9 percent.

[robbin]

I appreciate these figures don't fit the hysterical one-sided narrative.

[Sephiroth]

I'm not denying the data, but unlike Elliot or you, I don't think it's somehow beneficial to UK bargaining

The data is the data - but part from not being pretty, what is your point with it?

[robbin]

Seriously?

Do you genuinely need that explaining?

See my post from 7pm yesterday, if you do (paras 4-7).

[Sephiroth]

I read it - it was a vague reheating of "they need us more than them / German car manufacturers will save us"

You still don't get it - the EU is not coming to save the UK. They recognize all the bluff and bluster. Businesses in Spain are not putting any meaningful pressure on their Govt to cut UK a deal

[robbin]

You know that, do you?

You are well connected, Nemesis!

[malumbu]

................

>

> here

> > but read between the lines:

> > https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/brexit/

> >

> Interesting, thanks - missed Radio 4 though.

>

> By way of comparison, the UK automotive industry

> accounts for 4% of UK GDP.

>

> In Germany it accounts for an astonishing 14% of

> GDP - the largest part of which is exports to the

> UK.

Would you not argue that UK motor manufacturing is an example of where we want to be as a nation - cutting edge, skilled workforce, niche position, focusing at what we are good at and encouraging inward investment particularly from Asia? Otherwise where is our economy going?

There is a great comment on the BBC website "with all the money we are saving from leaving the EU we could set up our own car factory, and make sure that the public sector have use these cars". Perhaps Iran is a model where the Hillman Hunter factory was carted off in the 1970s so that they had an Iranian car, twenty years out of date, that the Iranians would drive. Or maybe relocate the Tribant or Wartburg factories. OK a silly example but seems to exemplify the belief of many.

[JohnL]

"They come from the EU and if you don?t have them, you can?t search people."

Oooh maybe not one of my favorite brexit stockpiles - rubber gloves that is.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/feb/08/heathrow-stockpiling-rubber-gloves-from-eu-for-post-brexit-searches

[robbin]

Ah, the Hillman Hunter - great memories!

I think the UK motor industry is doing pretty well comparatively, but it will need to up it's game on autonomous and electric vehicle development, because that's the future (the near future). The Germans have lagged way behind on this, which is why they are looking at having a very hard time soon.

[robbin]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> "They come from the EU and if you don?t have them,

> you can?t search people."

>

> Oooh maybe not one of my favorite brexit

> stockpiles - rubber gloves that is.

>

> https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/feb/08/he

> athrow-stockpiling-rubber-gloves-from-eu-for-post-

> brexit-searches

Damn, I hadn't realised latex gloves aren't manufactured anywhere else in the world!

Oh, wait...

[robbin]

John, if you like latex gloves, you have to check this out!

https://www.businessinsider.com/creepy-factory-where-rubber-gloves-are-made-2014-10?r=US&IR=T

[Sephiroth]

Man on @Channel4News just now, voted Brexit, then bought a retirement home in Spain, didn?t realise he?d lose HIS freedom of movement, wishes he could vote again, Remain this time.

- Do you think you might have shot yourself a bit in the foot.

- A bit. Yeah.

#jamoniberico

[Alan Medic]

My EU passport holding brother and his English partner retired to Spain last Summer. Haven't communicated much with them since but appears she has the right to stay now. Don't know the specifics.

[robbin]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-13/u-k-inflation-below-boe-target-for-first-time-since-2017?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google

Again, sorry that this hardly supports the hysterical doomsday narrative.

[rendelharris]

robbin Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-13

> /u-k-inflation-below-boe-target-for-first-time-sin

> ce-2017?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=goog

> le

>

> Again, sorry that this hardly supports the

> hysterical doomsday narrative.

You do know that brexit hasn't happened yet, robbin? Inflation is dropping or holding station across the globe at present, not sure how anyone could interpret those figures as either indicating a positive or negative outcome.

"Don't jump in the sea with all your clothes on sir, you'll get unpleasantly wet."

"Well, I think you'll find that it's only five minutes before the time at which I plan to jump into the sea with all my clothes on, and I'm dry as a bone. Therefore your contention that jumping in the sea will get me wet is entirely invalid."

[robbin]

I understand your point, Rendel, but I think that's rather missing the point of Bloomberg's article.

There have been posts on here that have complained about substantial and inexorable increases in inflation in the UK. This latest news shows that to be a misstatement of the facts.

[Alan Medic]

No deal here we come! I think that may be the plan.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/13/kicking-up-dust-little-sign-of-progress-in-uk-eu-talks?CMP=twt_gu

[Alan Medic]

Anyone follow @J_amesp on Twitter? His take is quite scary.

[JohnL]

Goddard arrested again - surely as he's likely to re offend they shouldn't be allowing bail.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-47226110

[JohnL]

So if EU offered passports for a reasonable price (say ?5K) who would consider it ?

It's ?600K at the moment I gather :) OK for billionaires.

[JohnL]

WTO application rejected.

We can still trade but it's like a grinder slowly taking away everything.

[JoeLeg]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> No deal here we come! I think that may be the

> plan.

>

> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/13/k

> icking-up-dust-little-sign-of-progress-in-uk-eu-ta

> lks?CMP=twt_gu

I think there?s certainly a lot of people who want a No Deal. There?s this image of us being this plucky little nation that always punched above its weight, and anyone who expresses concern is told they?re ?talking down the country?.

There?s certainly a narrative being pushed in social media and parts of the press that the EU is bullying us and refusing to be reasonable. Personally I think it?s far more that the U.K. went into this far too early and has made a hash of it. I?m very uncomfortable with the way the groundwork has already been laid for the idea that this is STILL all the fault of the EU, and that we?d have a great deal if it wasn?t for those pesky kids in Brussels. I?m also really not sure I buy this narrative of there being lots of Remain voters who have decided that because of how the EU have ?treated us? We should go for No Deal, like they?ve had some kind of Damascene conversion.

I believe the ERG has wanted No Deal all along, as has the DUP, and a lot of the public simply believes either it?ll be ok in the end, and/or the medium term pain will be worth it.

I guess we?ll see...

[JohnL]

That's because we've always pulled through in the past but they might get a shock. I'm beginning to give up on stopping it and just preparing an looking at what options to take when it hits (I wish I could get that Irish passport :) ).

Anyway the Dutch have a Brexit monster character now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47237371

[robbin]

Foil hats off...tin hats on...