Brexit View

[Sephiroth]

" They have been exceptionally difficult and obstinate. "

citation needed!

EU have played their cards straight, been transparent and behaved exactly as everyone said they would

What is different is that the Leavers like Davis, Gove etc, all promised it would be easy and they would roll over. You do remember that don't you? So they didn't rollover and that makes them exceptionally difficult?

[Jenny1]

Interesting thinking on Twitter from Lewis Gooddall of Sky about when in the past we've faced similar situations. He made a short list and concluded that the most similar was the IMF Crisis of 1976 (Just remember this one!). But he notes that in order for it to be resolved Callaghan and Healey needed to be flexible and stand up to their own party. No sign of that kind of behaviour right now.

[JohnL]

So seriously - anyone financial know the chances of any banks going under if we no deal.

[robbin]

In Italy, certainly a possibility. Not here in the UK - our banks are in far better shape (according to the stress testing) than elsewhere in the EU.

Out of interest, why do you ask about banks failing - I haven't seen that as a scare story, even in the usual sources of scaremongering?

[robbin]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-banks/uk-banks-strong-enough-to-weather-no-deal-brexit-says-moodys-idUKKCN1QG2BP

[Henry_17]

Well as long as the ratings agencies think the banks will be ok i?ll sleep fine.

[dbboy]

Currently the UK is the laughing stock of Europe, France have stuck the boot in but that is not unexpected, so the options are an extension till 30th June, the third vote being rejected by HoC, May won't revoke Article 50, another vote of no confidence and based on current state of her own Party and Parliament that could potentially be lost and result in General Election and a split Parliament.

Corbyn threw his toys out of the pram this evening and walked out of cross party talks because the Independent Group attended. And to be honest cross party talks should have been done much earlier. The previous Brexit Ministers wasted two years doing (I have no idea), the first two she sacked. She has only really engaged in Brexit for the last 12 months. Brexit is an absolute shambles, as others have said she is running the clock down, either hoping for a last minute deal or it will result in the UK exiting with No Deal.

Corbyn's own MP's don't trust or like him, the country dosen't trust May because of her inability to negotiate, so if it does go to a GE, although I expect May to fight tooth and nail against that we are likely to be looking at the same we had between 2010 - 2015, a hung Parliament.

Yesterday following a lengthy and interesting Parliamentary Debate, two MP's on the Foreign Affairs Select Committee and who had joined the Independent Group were voted off the FAsC, even though their was cross party support for them staying, but because Corbyn wanted revenge for them having defected they were voted off. An absolute farce of democracy and the UK will be poorer as a result of the loss of their vast experience of the workings and running of the FAsC.

[Alan Medic]

May blaming MP's for the inability of her to get her deal through, must be the last straw. She's got to go. Enter who though?

[Alan Medic]

I haven't seen one as big as this before...

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

[JohnL]

worst. speech. ever. by. a . prime. minister.

Hope they've doubled the guard on parliament.

[JohnL]

robbin Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-banks

> /uk-banks-strong-enough-to-weather-no-deal-brexit-

> says-moodys-idUKKCN1QG2BP

Thanks Robbin - not a political point this time - A fair amount of money from inheritance being held by a close relative in what I think may be a single account.

[poch]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> worst. speech. ever. by. a . prime. minister.

>

> Hope they've doubled the guard on parliament.

Agree. Gutter politics. And woeful strategically.

[diable rouge]

I was gobsmacked when I saw highlights of that speech on the news late last night. Very busy at the moment, so keep up the updated news feed john!...:)

[JohnL]

Bercow "None of you is a traitor... the sole duty of every member of parliament is to do what he or she thinks is right"

Okay it sounds like a bit of a life coach type thing but he's right.

[JohnL]

Read between the lines of Lisa Nandy's article and you can see the devastating effect of that speech - she's obviously changed her vote. The ERG see a no deal within their grasp. The DUP haven't moved.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/21/theresa-may-prime-minister-democracy-mps

[Angelina]

How many days left for TM? and who will replace her?

[JohnL]

Temporary (I think she'll go straight away rather than stay until another is elected) - Liddington. He'd be the one to agree a longer deal or even revoke (contradicted May only last week).

After that I hope we never find out and some kind of structural change happens. Andrea Leadsom, Boris Johnson or Esther McVey are unfit in my view. I notice Jeremy Hunt has been saying May was tired and stressed - we know why :). Javid is an opportunist. Who else is there .. Rudd, Raab (seems a favourite with the leavers).

Maybe Barack Obama could come over (suggested in jest on Sky this morning) - outsource our leaders.

Edit oh and I almost forgot Gove. Yeah.

[teddyboy23]

What about trump

[Jules-and-Boo]

oh yes. That would put the cat amongst the pigeons.

[JohnL]

"Latest from Brussels: May has been in the room with the rest of the EU leaders since 330 -- she's expected out shortly and then the leaders will discuss among themselves what they want to do"

It's like school and she's been a naughty girl.

[robbin]

Henry_17 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Well as long as the ratings agencies think the

> banks will be ok i?ll sleep fine.

Sorry, but that's a bit of a ridiculous comment. Is that all you took from that news report? It was the B of E's stress testing that Moodys based their opinion on! Is stress testing not something you were aware of? It's not Moodys who just thought they would guess about the subject.

[robbin]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> robbin Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> >

> https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-banks

>

> >

> /uk-banks-strong-enough-to-weather-no-deal-brexit-

>

> > says-moodys-idUKKCN1QG2BP

>

>

> Thanks Robbin - not a political point this time -

> A fair amount of money from inheritance being held

> by a close relative in what I think may be a

> single account.

Depending on the amount on deposit it might be worth splitting it across a few different banks/building socs so as to have the benefit of FSCS government insurance for each deposit - it used to be up to ?85,000 cover for each customer per bank (not per account) - not sure what it is now. I've divided my kids savings like that as I don't want it all disappearing in a puff of smoke if there's another crash (nothing to do with Brexit though - that was pre-referendum) -it just makes sense. Be careful though - the ?85k is the limit per bank so you could get several multiples of ?85k insurance protection by depositing in several different banks, but make sure they are not operating under the same banking licence as it is actually ?85k per licence, so banks in the same group count as one bank.

Of course if Italian banks crash they are seriously (and dangerously) inter-related, unlike ours, so if one goes, several might well follow within hours or a few days and there is always a knock on effect because foreign banks loan all over the place (i.e. British banks will have loan book exposure in Italy) so that can cause probs. But the banks have been alive to the fact that Italy has been teetering on the brink of a financial system collapse for 2 years now and so have been positioning themselves accordingly so as to limit exposure.

It's a funny old world in banking, so you can never rule anything out with complete certainty (as we have seen in the past) but Brexit alone is not a cause for concern in isolation IMO (for what that's worth). I realise though, that most people on here don't agree with me and/or think I talk nothing but b@ll*cks, so you might want to factor that in as well.

[robbin]

This is very interesting but also very scary reading if you are French. The French may be in a whole heap of trouble if the Italian banks start failing! The figures are quite shocking.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-italian-banks/

UK banks have credit exposure to Italian banks of EUR 17.4 billion

German banks have exposure to Italian banks of EUR 58.7 billion

French banks have credit exposure to Italian banks of EUR 285.5 billion -ouch!

[Jenny1]

Perhaps May will go next week? It looks as if her fractured government might be beyond repair if she can't even rely on her Chief Whip.

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-21/has-the-prime-minister-cracked-her-chief-whip/

If she's pushed out it might unblock the system enough to allow a new way forward. The EU seem to be suggesting an unconditional extension of A50 til May 7th, which would help. Sensible not to make it reliant on any MV3 going her way.

[robbin]

Her speech was and her attitude is an absolute disgrace. She has appalling judgement and apparently a complete lack of self-awareness. Worst of all is her abject incompetence and then she has the bare faced cheek to blame everyone but herself for the mess of negotiations and preparations that she created.

She has to be the worst, most incompetent PM in the last 100 years. Unless and until Jeremy Corbyn takes the prize, that is. (God help us all if that happens!)