Who to vote for?

[diable rouge]

dbboy Wrote:

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> But it's not going to happen like you say.

> No party will have a majority and my current

> prediction is 1.tory, 2 brexit party, 3. lib dems,

> 4. labour.

This prediction makes no sense, care to explain, say with some approx vote share?

I'm no fan of opinion polls but there's a clear trend at the moment that the Tories will win with a majority because they have most of the Leave vote whereas the Remain vote is split. Also, I think it's nigh on impossible for the Tories and BXP to finish first and second for this very reason, they both rely on votes from Leavers but they only make up around 46-48% of the total vote at present. What your prediction is suggesting is that Labour Remain voters will dessert them in droves in favour of the Tories and BXP. Ain't gonna happen...

[Loutwo]

The Lib Dem?s are a country mile ahead in London polling at present. This could change of course, but it appears LIB/LAB and LIB/CON marginals are swinging heavily in favour of the Lib Dem?s, mostly because of Brexit revocation promises.

Louisa.

[pk]

Loutwo Wrote:

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> The Lib Dem?s are a country mile ahead in London

> polling at present.

I haven't seen anything to suggest that LD is leading anything by a country mile

are you making this up or have you got a (credible) source?

[JohnL]

Loutwo Wrote:

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> The Lib Dem?s are a country mile ahead in London

> polling at present. This could change of course,

> but it appears LIB/LAB and LIB/CON marginals are

> swinging heavily in favour of the Lib Dem?s,

> mostly because of Brexit revocation promises.

>

> Louisa.

I think there maybe a different voting pattern in marginals compared to seats like Camberwell & Peckham where Labour is holding up.

I think the London overall count will still show Labour ahead.

[JohnL]

pk Wrote:

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> Loutwo Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > The Lib Dem?s are a country mile ahead in

> London

> > polling at present.

>

>

> I haven't seen anything to suggest that LD is

> leading anything by a country mile

>

> are you making this up or have you got a

> (credible) source?

Guardian - but it looks like they're letting the tories in :(

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/16/election-2019-london-polls-show-lib-dem-surge

[pk]

JohnL Wrote:

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> pk Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Loutwo Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> > > The Lib Dem?s are a country mile ahead in

> > London

> > > polling at present.

> >

> >

> > I haven't seen anything to suggest that LD is

> > leading anything by a country mile

> >

> > are you making this up or have you got a

> > (credible) source?

>

> Guardian - but it looks like they're letting the

> tories in :(

>

> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/16/e

> lection-2019-london-polls-show-lib-dem-surge

but that doesn't show them leading anything?!

let alone by a country mile!

[Loutwo]

JohnL that?s where I read it. The swing seems concentrated in marginals where Labour won last time, mostly inner London. But also in SW Tory/Lib marginals. So the Lib Dem?s will probably pick up a lot more votes, but actually only win a handful more seats.

Louisa.

[Loutwo]

pk Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Loutwo Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > The Lib Dem?s are a country mile ahead in

> London

> > polling at present.

>

>

> I haven't seen anything to suggest that LD is

> leading anything by a country mile

>

> are you making this up or have you got a

> (credible) source?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/05/labours-london-lead-slimmer-2017

According to YouGov, Labour has sunk by almost 15% on the 2017 count, and almost all of that has gone over to the Lib Dem?s. Tories are static.

Louisa.

[pk]

Loutwo Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> pk Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Loutwo Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> > > The Lib Dem?s are a country mile ahead in

> > London

> > > polling at present.

> >

> >

> > I haven't seen anything to suggest that LD is

> > leading anything by a country mile

> >

> > are you making this up or have you got a

> > (credible) source?

>

> https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-repo

> rts/2019/11/05/labours-london-lead-slimmer-2017

>

> According to YouGov, Labour has sunk by almost 15%

> on the 2017 count, and almost all of that has gone

> over to the Lib Dem?s. Tories are static.

>

> Louisa.

according to your YouGov source LibDems are third

hardly 'leading by a country mile'

in fact it says labour are leading in London by 10%!

I guess you made it up then (or you can't read very well)

[Loutwo]

I?ve not made anything up. You do understand how first past the post works right?

The Lib Dem?s have targeted specific remain constituencies of both Labour and the Tories, and are ahead in a substantial number of them. They haven?t just picked up potential votes across the board, which by the way could affect a number of marginals where they?re not in contention, but they?ve also managed to use their surge alongside their local targeting (something they are good at) to potentially change the colour of the map come December 13.

The implications are far reaching, and if only Labour had committed themselves to revocation, London would have been in the bag for them. Instead, they will split the vote. Stupid move.

Louisa.

[pk]

Loutwo Wrote:

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> I?ve not made anything up. You do understand how

> first past the post works right?

>

>

I do

you do understand that third isn't 'leading by a country mile' right?

[Loutwo]

pk all the polling, private and public points towards a significant surge for the Lib Dem?s. They are clearly substantially up on the previous election, which will have a significant impact in marginal constituencies. The impact could be significant in certain targeted seats. Both Labour and the Tories will be knocked back into third place, based on this poll, in a significant number of seats.

Louisa.

[pk]

Loutwo Wrote:

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> pk all the polling, private and public points

> towards a significant surge for the Lib Dem?s.

> They are clearly substantially up on the previous

> election, which will have a significant impact in

> marginal constituencies. The impact could be

> significant in certain targeted seats. Both Labour

> and the Tories will be knocked back into third

> place, based on this poll, in a significant number

> of seats.

>

> Louisa.

That isn?t leading by a country mile tho, so I guess we?re agreeing that you were wrong

[Loutwo]

Absolutely not. I was correct in saying the Lib Dem?s are indeed ahead by a country mile, in a significant number of seats, which will impact upon the outcome of this election in London. I?m sorry you aren?t able to compute my reasoning for reaching this conclusion. It seems everyone else can see I am right on this. Mathematics clearly isn?t a strong point for you.

Louisa.

[pk]

Loutwo Wrote:

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> I was correct in saying the Lib Dem?s are indeed ahead by a country mile, in a

> significant number of seats

. Mathematics clearly

> isn?t a strong point for you.

>

> Louisa.

you didn't say that

and you've provided no source to support that (just one that showed that what you actually said wasnt to be true)

perhaps you could break down these complicated sums that you've been doing with your superbrain that you suggest (based on no facts, unsurprisingly) are above my head?

[Loutwo]

pk I think other forum users can come to a reasoned conclusion on who is correct here. I have provided two sources which show the Lib Dem?s ahead by a country mile, in enough constituencies to influence the outcome of the election in London. The facts are laid out in two sources provided above, I suggest you go away and re-read them both, and then get back to me with a thoughtful and coherent response, rather than a reactionary ?let?s have a go at Louisa just for the sake of it? response, which is getting boring on this forum. I was correct, and it was based on fact.

Louisa.

[diable rouge]

Too early to be falling out over polls, this time at the last election the Tories had an 18pt lead. The first of the TV debates is on tonight followed soon by the launch of the manifestos, so this weekend's polls will give a much better indication of where we're at, and more importantly in what direction...

[pk]

Loutwo Wrote:

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> pk I think other forum users can come to a

> reasoned conclusion on who is correct here. I have

> provided two sources which show the Lib Dem?s

> ahead by a country mile, in enough constituencies

> to influence the outcome of the election in

> London. The facts are laid out in two sources

> provided above, I suggest you go away and re-read

> them both, and then get back to me with a

> thoughtful and coherent response, rather than a

> reactionary ?let?s have a go at Louisa just for

> the sake of it? response, which is getting boring

> on this forum. I was correct, and it was based on

> fact.

>

> Louisa.

pathetic

[Alan Medic]

Hmm. I received an unsolicited email from 'Labour Future' today. Wonder where they got my email address and name from. Any ideas what I might have signed up for that gave them that information?

[DulwichFox]

Labour Future ???

The SKWAWKBOX understands that ?Labour Future? (LF) is again sending emails to Labour supporters asking for donations. As the SKWAWKBOX revealed as long ago as 2017, LF is a private company which has no standing with the Labour Party ? and whose directors have links with UKIP, the Tories and the right-wing,

https://skwawkbox.org/2019/08/30/labour-future-again-sending-fundraising-emails-caution-this-non-labour-co-has-links-to-ukip-and-tories/

[paulu197]

THis is a much accurate view of the Polls - it is a two party race...https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

[TheCat]

While I'm all for initiates to improve inequality, and am personally happy to pay a modest amount more intax to improve welfare and public services. This type of talk from the labour party is absolutely terrifying....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/19/labour-rewrite-rules-economy-john-mcdonnell

Many on this board curse brexit for what will destroy this country's economy, well with policies like these labour will make brexit seem like a small blip in the road....

Watch as private investment, foreign direct investment and business confidence evaporate as the 'shareholder economy' is dismantled....

Oh by the way John McDonnell, just about every one of those workers you want to support is also a shareholder in most of the leading UK listed companies. Destroy the shareholder economy, and destroy the pension pots of the workers as well.....

[Spartacus]

It's almost as if labour DON'T want to win the election with their manifesto and policies

After all it took them long enough to agree to one 🤓

[Captain Marvel]

McCluskey says it's unbelievable and I think old Len might be on to something:

'All of these things Labour is promising. The deal that they?re going to put to people is unbelievable.'

[Captain Marvel]

Economic genius