The East London Line extension

[Administrator]

Stop winding people up UDT. Final warning.

[Undisputedtruth]

Bic Basher Wrote:

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> Hilarious that UDT thinks that I've got an agenda

> where I support the abolition of the SLL based on

> my own train services. Complete nonsense.

>

> The Sydenham line carries more passengers than the

> SLL and saw two trains per hour scrapped in 2010

> when the ELL service was introduced, yet it still

> warrants 4tph to London Bridge, which Peckham Rye

> and Queens Road Peckham will still have after the

> introduction in December, along with an extra 4tph

> serving those two stations on the ELL.

As I said before, it's all about efficiency and number crunching. Trains through Sydenham line travels over a longer distance than the SLL hence the reason why they carried more passengers. Break the two journeys into comparative units of data then you'll find the SLL train just as busy. Factor in that SLL serve another Victoria station on the opposite journey then you realise how busy and efficient SLL trains really are. Sydenham line trains travelling in opposite direction to London Bridge are likely to be empty.

The methodology for scrapping a train service ahead of the Thameslink works at London Bridge was remarkably simplistic. Sounds familiar Bic Bash? The data was not comparing like for like because each train service travelled over different lengths. The methodology did not account for passnger numbers away from London Bridge. If the Thameslink methodology was conducted as though it was a scientific analysis then it would have beeen laughed out of the scientific community.

> The fact is the SLL would have been scrapped ELL

> or not because of the Thameslink Programme works

> at London Bridge, at least this way passengers are

> getting something with extra services and less

> waiting time between trains, despite having some

> of the least used passenger rail usage in South

> London. (SLL only and not the Vic to Dartford)

The London TravelWatch own survey clearly spelled out major inconveniences for most SLL users switching over to the ELL services resulting in longer travelling times to Victoria. It is wrong for you to say that the SLL was the least used line in South London when in reality it offered one of the most efficient and least tax subsidised of all rail services in South London.

[Bic Basher]

Simplistic in your own view, as asked on Rail UK Forums. What other service would you drop so that the SLL could stay at London Bridge?

You couldn't give another option as the other services have more passengers using longer carriage services in comparison to the SLL.

The SLL from Peckham Rye and Denmark Hill was also timetabled 5-6 mins after the Southeastern service from Dartford would call at those stations. Hardly an efficient use of the service when the bulk of passengers were picked up by the earlier train. If those SLL trains were spaced out more evenly, you may have a more viable argument.

Incidentally, how would you expect those trains to call at their current route once the SLL platforms at Battersea Park become bay platforms as the mainline platforms are being extended?

[Undisputedtruth]

Bic Basher Wrote:

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> Simplistic in your own view, as asked on Rail UK

> Forums. What other service would you drop so that

> the SLL could stay at London Bridge?

Network Rail was repeatedly asked by Clapham Transport Users group what train services would be affected if the SLL train service remained. No information was given. Network Rail also admitted to stakeholders that it was possible to extend the London Bridge platforms to accommodate the SLL trains.

I also said it was possible to build more London Bridge platforms adjacent to platform 16 as the space is currently used as a car park where formerly it accommodated platforms 17 to 22 during the mid 70s.

> You couldn't give another option as the other

> services have more passengers using longer

> carriage services in comparison to the SLL.

These longer carriage services travels through least densely populated areas and remains virtually empty when travelling against the flow during peak periods.

> The SLL from Peckham Rye and Denmark Hill was also

> timetabled 5-6 mins after the Southeastern service

> from Dartford would call at those stations.

> Hardly an efficient use of the service when the

> bulk of passengers were picked up by the earlier

> train. If those SLL trains were spaced out more

> evenly, you may have a more viable argument.

Despite this, the SLL trains were the most crowded carriages out of all services approaching Victoria. It also puts to bed the belief that the SLL services were not in demand. The SLL usage have trebled in a space of years and would have been more busier if Network Rail built an interchange at Brixton in the 80s when they had an opportunity to do so.

> Incidentally, how would you expect those trains to

> call at their current route once the SLL platforms

> at Battersea Park become bay platforms as the

> mainline platforms are being extended?

They will not be able to call at Battersea Park due to Network Rail sponsoring of platform legthening. Though it has been suggested that the SLL could form an interchange with a possible future Nine Elms station nearby.

[Bic Basher]

Open Train Times appears to have the December timetable available at least provisionally.

Using Peckham Rye, ELL services will run approximately 15 mins to Clapham Junction at x01, 17, 31 and 46 past each hour taking 20 minutes. There's a 9 or 10 minute gap between Wandsworth Road and Clapham Junction depending on the service. If this is the case, that gap needs to be filled up somehow to persuade passengers to use it as an alternative to change for Victoria which will otherwise fill those existing Southeastern services.

Highbury and Islington services will run at x14, 29, 44 and 59 with services taking 10 minutes to reach Canada Water.

Passengers travelling eastbound from Denmark Hill using the ELL will have a 5 minute wait to change for LB services.

I'd urge that this information is provisional and could change before December.

http://www.opentraintimes.com/location/PMR?day=10&month=12&time=1000&year=2012

[Undisputedtruth]

In view of the number of misinformation given here, I'd much rather wait for the official timetable.

[Undisputedtruth]

Bic Basher Wrote:

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> Passengers travelling eastbound from Denmark Hill

> using the ELL will have a 5 minute wait to change

> for LB services.

10 minute wait in some cases.

[Bic Basher]

Undisputedtruth Wrote:

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> In view of the number of misinformation given

> here, I'd much rather wait for the official

> timetable.

I'd rather wait for you to get banned personally.

[Bic Basher]

Undisputedtruth Wrote:

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> Bic Basher Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> > Passengers travelling eastbound from Denmark

> Hill

> > using the ELL will have a 5 minute wait to

> change

> > for LB services.

>

>

> 10 minute wait in some cases.

The Sydenham line has a gap of 15 mins between LB services.

[Undisputedtruth]

Bic Basher Wrote:

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> Undisputedtruth Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Bic Basher Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> >

> > > Passengers travelling eastbound from Denmark

> > Hill

> > > using the ELL will have a 5 minute wait to

> > change

> > > for LB services.

> >

> >

> > 10 minute wait in some cases.

>

> The Sydenham line has a gap of 15 mins between LB

> services.

But for Denmark Hill rail users, some of their journeys to London Bridge are nearly doubled, come December 2012. Also, the warm waiting room at Peckham Rye will shortly be demolished and people will freeze while waiting for their connection to London Bridge.

[Bic Basher]

Undisputedtruth Wrote:

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> Bic Basher Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Undisputedtruth Wrote:

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> > -----

> > > Bic Basher Wrote:

> > >

> >

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> >

> > > -----

> > >

> > > > Passengers travelling eastbound from

> Denmark

> > > Hill

> > > > using the ELL will have a 5 minute wait to

> > > change

> > > > for LB services.

> > >

> > >

> > > 10 minute wait in some cases.

> >

> > The Sydenham line has a gap of 15 mins between

> LB

> > services.

>

> But for Denmark Hill rail users, some of their

> journeys to London Bridge are nearly doubled, come

> December 2012. Also, the warm waiting room at

> Peckham Rye will shortly be demolished and people

> will freeze while waiting for their connection to

> London Bridge.

Oh didums, they could just get on one of the other trains that server Peckham Rye instead.

[henryb]

Or get a coat. It is London, not the Artic. Or get a bike - Denmark Hill to London Bridge must be what? 15 mins?

[Administrator]

Bic Basher Wrote:

> Oh didums, they could just get on one of the other

> trains that server Peckham Rye instead.

Please discuss this sensibly without name calling it's starting to get a bit silly now.

[the-e-dealer]

Snowy cold mornings waiting on the platform can be pretty unpleasant.

[henryb]

That?s because trains never turn up when it snows. Couple of inches and ?Snowageddon!? and we have to ask the Germans for salt.

[LondonMix]

Regarding Victoria, are we assuming people won't be able to get on the remaining trains into Victoria Station (the Dartford Service)? The existing gap between the SLL and the Dartford service is only 5 min so it was basically two back to back trains every half on an hour. For people whose final destination is more easily reached by going straight to Victoria going to Clahpham makes no sense.

The Dartford service is already quite full I know but according to the Travel Watch Survey we've been discussing about 27% of people who currently are commuting to Victoria on the SLL would be better off or neutral using the ELL given their reported final destinations (usually East or West London). This considered both length of journey and any additional hassle involved with switching trains in comparing journeys. For people originating in Peckham or Denmark Hill using the South Eastern Service from Dartford to get into Victoria the number who will benefit from switching to the ELL is closer to 40% based on final destinations. We can imagine a similar percentage of the people who got on before Peckham Rye might find it makes sense to switch to ELL at Peckham Rye as well.

The Dartford service carries a lot more people than the SLL so there very well could be more than enough space to accommodate the 70% of SLL who will try to get onto the South Eastern Service to Victoria. Does anyone have the exact passenger numbers on each service to see if 40% of people on South Eastern train to Victoria who switch to the ELL will create enough room to accommodate the 70% of SLL users who will need to use the service once the SLL trains disappear?

I want to maintain the best connections we can into the centre but the more I look at it, the more I understand why certain decisions may have been made....

[Undisputedtruth]

@LondonMix

I can see what you're trying to say but with all due respect I think you're taking the figures out of context.

1) In sections 5.41 it lists final destinations for users of the South East Train Services (SETS). Most of the SETS users benefiting from the switch to ELL have final destinations to Peckham Rye and Denmark Hill.

2) The report also mentions some passengers freely interchanging beween SES and SLL as they serve the same stations from start of journey to final destination.

3) Peckham Rye is a major hub for interchanging of train journeys.

4) Denmark Hill have two major hospitals nearby

5) Peckham Rye and Denmark Hill passengers benefits from the increase frequency of the ELL services are likely to be short journeys

Taking into account 1,2,3,4, & 5, the ELL service will not solve the overcrowding on SETS trains arriving at Victoria station.

[missbabs]

the reopening of the ell through new cross gate was early if i remember correctly??

[LondonMix]

First, I think that the Travel Watch Survey is a very poorly drafted document and the layout of data is not as clear as it should be and I think that might be causing some confusion. With that said, UDT, if you look closely, you will see that only people getting on /off the SET at Denmark Hill and Peckham Rye were surveyed. It was the intention of the surveyors to capture only the users of the SET from and to those stations for their analysis. Therefore, your point 1 is by design of the report. The percentage of users of the Victoria-Dartford line (SET) who would also benefit from the ELLX is unknown. Please see below relevant passages from the report that highlight the intentions of the survey.

Therefore, definitive conclusions cannot be drawn about how many total passengers should get off the SET (Dartford ? Victoria service) and start using the ELLX once its up and running. However, there are three plausible scenarios:

1. The majority of people that get on the SET at stations before Peckham Rye (ie Dartford - Nunhead) already get off at Peckham Rye and Denmark Hill (for the reasons you mention in points 3 and 4 of your post UDT). If this is the case, then the majority of people who currently travel into Victoria on the SET are people travelling in from Denmark Hill and Peckham Rye and therefore the results of the Travel Watch survey are largely in line with how expected travel patterns on this line will evolve following the ELLX. That is, circa 40% of users will be better off or neutral switching to the ELLX from these stations, creating capacity to absorb the estimated 70% passengers from the SLL who need to travel into Victoria and don?t benefit from the ELLX as their final destinations aren?t in East / West London. As the SET has more total space than the SLL, the figures might work and there might not be over-crowding on the remaining Victoria service.

2. The other possibility is that the SET all the way through to Victoria is used by a mix of people from throughout the line. Whether or not people who get on in Dartford through Nunhead will be better off switching to the ELLX when they arrive at Peckham or better off staying on the SET train will depend on their final destinations which we don?t know. However, in my opinion, there is no reason to think that more people in Nunhead have final destinations in central London (vs. East / West London) than people captured by Travel Watch who use Peckham and Denmark Hill stations. If a similar final destination pattern holds up, one would still expect 30-40% of capacity to be created by the ELLX to absorb the SLL passengers. I take your point UDT that about half of those not negatively affected in the SET survey from Peckham and Denmark Hill are making short local trips for which the ELLX can work as a substitute between these two stations. But neutralizing those, that still leaves a signifcant 20% of journey's on the SET that benefit. Applying those figure for those travelling from Dartford and Nunhead combined with the 40% of those travelling from Peckham and Denmark Hill still make a compelling case for spare capacity though as you mention with more final destinations via Victoria station than before.

3. The only scenario in which the above isn?t the case is if passengers who get on before Peckham represent a very large percentage of total passengers into Victoria on the SET currently and these passengers have final destinations in central London (vs. East and West London) at a much higher rate than people who get on the train at Peckham and Denmark Hill. This is possible though in my view not the most likely scenario.

Either way, like I already said, this survey needed to be more detailed about final destinations of users to come up with more conclusive analysis. Also, given that a lot of people surveyed didn?t realize they would benefit by switching to the ELL once its up and running due to lack of information, TFL needs to start a big awareness campaign to make sure the line is used by all those who benefit to mitigate over-crowding on the remaining Victoria service as much as possible.

Extracts from Report:

Following an advance ?dry run? it was decided to carry out the SET surveys on the

platform at Peckham Rye and Denmark Hill. This was because the loadings of the SET

services were already significant when Victoria-bound trains arrived from Nunhead,

thereby presenting difficulties in finding passengers originating at Peckham Rye and

Denmark Hill for survey staff going through the trains. If survey cards had been had

handed out to all passengers, there was the potential for a large number of responses

to be received from passengers originating at stations between Dartford and Nunhead.

Whilst these could have been discarded, it would have reduced the number of surveys

able to be distributed in the available time to the target audience.

5.3 By far the biggest destination is Victoria, with Peckham Rye and Denmark Hill the

highest origin stations. Given that the SET survey focused specifically on passengers

from these two stations into Victoria, this is not wholly surprising. However, this pattern

is broadly consistent with the SLL survey as well, although the spread of origins is

much wider.

SET - Destinations

5.40 The respondents from the SET survey are even more dominated by Victoria as a

destination, which is to be expected given the specific targeting of Peckham Rye and

Denmark Hill originating journeys. These three destinations combined consist of 84% of

destinations.

SET ? Origins

5.43 The 94% combined origin responses for Victoria, Denmark Hill and Peckham Rye

validates the survey as having been carried out correctly by capturing the right

audience. The small amount of other origins represent interchanges onto the line or

joint users of SET and SLL services, who are answering for the SLL part of their

journeys.

Undisputedtruth Wrote:

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> @LondonMix

>

> I can see what you're trying to say but with all

> due respect I think you're taking the figures out

> of context.

>

> 1) In sections 5.41 it lists final destinations

> for users of the South East Train Services (SETS).

> Most of the SETS users benefiting from the switch

> to ELL have final destinations to Peckham Rye and

> Denmark Hill.

>

> 2) The report also mentions some passengers freely

> interchanging beween SES and SLL as they serve the

> same stations from start of journey to final

> destination.

>

> 3) Peckham Rye is a major hub for interchanging of

> train journeys.

>

> 4) Denmark Hill have two major hospitals nearby

>

> 5) Peckham Rye and Denmark Hill passengers

> benefits from the increase frequency of the ELL

> services are likely to be short journeys

>

> Taking into account 1,2,3,4, & 5, the ELL service

> will not solve the overcrowding on SETS trains

> arriving at Victoria station.

[alice]

so to sum up ... can i now travel direct whitechapel to peckham?

[Bic Basher]

alice Wrote:

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> so to sum up ... can i now travel direct

> whitechapel to peckham?

From December 9th you'll be able to. Until then, you'll have to either use New Cross Gate or one of the stations on the current ELL which borders ED or Nunhead such as Brockley or Forest Hill.

[alice]

thanks for that

[cyclinginstructor]

I travel to bath regularly from east Dulwich. I wonder if there will be a better service from clapham junction. At the moment i would have to catch the very slow train from waterloo or go to reading to catch the service from paddington. Not sure if there will be any benefit in terms of travel time.

[Bic Basher]

cyclinginstructor Wrote:

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> I travel to bath regularly from east Dulwich. I

> wonder if there will be a better service from

> clapham junction. At the moment i would have to

> catch the very slow train from waterloo or go to

> reading to catch the service from paddington. Not

> sure if there will be any benefit in terms of

> travel time.

Not really, you could use the ELL to change at Whitechapel for the Hammersmith & City for Paddington, although I'd use the Jubilee to Baker Street then the Bakerloo or Circle/H&C. In that time you might find it quicker to get the 176 or 40 to the Elephant and get the Bakerloo to Pad. Once Crossrail opens in 2019, then you will see those journey times decrease as you'll be able to change at Whitechapel.

[Medley]

Forget Whitechapel to Paddington at the moment, and the bus - achingly slow.

The point is trying to uncover potentially useful connections at C Junction. I struggle with this too. Worth remembering there are trains from HOP/FH to C Junction at the moment, which are sometimes useful when coming in from Dorset or Surrey etc.

Once the H and C upgrade (3 years to go or so I think) is done Whitechapel will be a goer for connections to town, although Paddington will still be too far away.

Once Crossrail's in the game will change again of course, but that's not until 2019.

Bic Basher Wrote:

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> cyclinginstructor Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I travel to bath regularly from east Dulwich.

> I

> > wonder if there will be a better service from

> > clapham junction. At the moment i would have

> to

> > catch the very slow train from waterloo or go

> to

> > reading to catch the service from paddington.

> Not

> > sure if there will be any benefit in terms of

> > travel time.

>

> Not really, you could use the ELL to change at

> Whitechapel for the Hammersmith & City for

> Paddington, although I'd use the Jubilee to Baker

> Street then the Bakerloo or Circle/H&C. In that

> time you might find it quicker to get the 176 or

> 40 to the Elephant and get the Bakerloo to Pad.

> Once Crossrail opens in 2019, then you will see

> those journey times decrease as you'll be able to

> change at Whitechapel.