Greek ratings go north

[Huguenot]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20773955

Doopy doo, Quids. Everybody muddles through.

[????]

But the point is we, Europe, the global economy wouldn't have to be muddling through so painfully without such an ill conceived currency union in the first place. But for you and the visionaries all this horrible pain will be worth it in say 10 years time as you're not a poverty stricken Greek pensioner for eg and your contempt for the little people for some 'greater vision' is shared by all idealistic visionaries from tolatarian monsters to rather simplistic bureaucrats and technocrats

[Huguenot]

No Quids, Greek pensioners would have been stricken regardless of the Euro - their problems occur because the government spent more money than they collected in taxes, and they borrowed money to fill the gap.

If they had their own currency, they would have defaulted and devalued and would be unable to borrow any money at all - if anything their European ties have given them a soft landing.

With or without the Euro Greek pensioners would have been stuffed, with the Euro at least someone else is helping them out.

That's it. Nothing to do with visionaries.

My contempt for your views is mostly down to your claim that I am contemptuous of stricken Greek pensioners. What a nasty little smear. Says more about you than me.

The idea that you may be wrong about Europe fills you with an uncontrollable rage doesn't it?

[????]

Wierd projection huge, weird. Your frequent amateur psychology baloney on here is amusing. Teacher's son never got a top grade from his dad, constant need to try and prove himself or sum fink is the sort of amateur physchological crap I could push back on you.......

[reggie]

If I may play the Derek Smalls role on this one (somewhere between fire and ice...luke warm water).

I think the crunch question is...in order to keep going when an economy dips who will lend the money and at what rate?

In the UK we can borrow money cheaply and so continue propping up the economy combined with a bit of trimming.

Would Greece have been able to borrow money at a low enough price to keep going?

Whether we 'care' about the people is one thing but getting access to money is surely the prerequisite to 'caring'.

(awkward silence turtle)

[silverfox]

Strange thread.

Not sure if this is a private spat between Huguenot and ???? or whether Huguenot is wearing his EU health & safety approved Rose tinted spectacles causing the self-deluded belief that the EU experiment is still on track.

[Jeremy]

Remember that B- is still well below investment grade, and one of the lowest credit ratings for any country.

i.e. - still hard for Greece to borrow money.

[Huguenot]

Quids has been insisting that anything European, and mostly the Euro itself, has been doomed to failure within the next 'xxx months' for the last 5 years. He saw the Greek crisis to be created by the Euro and destined for failure, followed in quick succession by Spain and Italy.

The evidence is starting to harden that it's quite the opposite - resulting in an affirmation of ECB support for Europe, and the willingness of member states to bail each other out.

It's not because these Europeans are 'monstrous totalitarians', but because altruism, collaborative action and recognition of the demands of a world stage are proving much more prevalent than Quids in his cynical world view would have us think was possible.

I have been pointing out that the current crisis is simply teething problems and the currency would muddle through.

The improvement in Greece's rating is a validation of my much abused observations.

[????]

I have never insisted that anything european is doomed to failure and have a gaziilion times pointed out that i support the EU and our membership HERE I DOI AGAIN, YOU IDIOT - so can you stop continually raising that as an issue you , it's either deliberately misleading or more worryingly just your blind acceptance of the myth that all critics of the Euro are right wing, UKIP, little englanders, which was precisley the smear that was uses against any criticsim of the the Euro in the first place. I get sooo bored of making this point, your inability to accept that there are loads of completley relaxed, europeans, INCLUDING ME, that think that the euro has been a dissater for entirely rational reasons not prejudice. For someone who seems reasonably intelligent your inability to accept that there are perfectly rational arguments against the Euro not based on extremuist prejudice is to be frank bizzarre. Can you not accept that? really? If not we are going round and round in circles as we have a billion times on the thread on this in the Drawing Room.

In the meantime, the mild teething problems such as the rise of the extreme right in Greece, the posiblle re-election of a miliionaire child abusing buffoon in Italy, riots in Spain and Portugal, will no doubt continue. Let alone how exactly tyhe Spanish Banks will be recapitalised and how that'll go down with the German electorate.

Read my post again, Totalitarian monsters was a reference to those that are at the extreme of visionary ideas above what poeople want as a concept , not the europeans in the ECB, they are at the 'rather simplistic bureacrats/technocrats' end

[Jeremy]

The upgrade is the correct reaction to the deal reached by Greece/Eurozone/IMF a couple of weeks ago. And that in turn was a result of political will to make the Euro succeed. It doesn't suddenly make the Euro a roaring success.

Although I do really think the Euro has brought many benefits pre-2008, and will probably continue to do so. But there's a clear need for a better mechanism for structuring eurozone debt.

[DaveR]

Quids, don't bother. I long ago realised that H's confident prose masks the most limited possible understanding of the issues (in every field, as far as I can see). For example:

"No Quids, Greek pensioners would have been stricken regardless of the Euro - their problems occur because the government spent more money than they collected in taxes, and they borrowed money to fill the gap."

The point is that Greek membership of the euro enabled them to borrow more money at lower interest rates than should ever have been the case. The debt markets didn't apply normal pricing because they perceived (rightly) that the Greeks had implied backing from Germany and the rest of the stronger euro economies. The euro countries had identified this risk early on, hence the stability rules, but these were not enforced. The extent of Greek indebtedness is a direct result of euro membership.

"If they had their own currency, they would have defaulted and devalued and would be unable to borrow any money at all - if anything their European ties have given them a soft landing."

If they had had their own currency throughout they might not be in this mess (or at least not to the same extent) - see above. If they had their own currency now they could unilaterally convert their euro debts into domestic currency, and adopt a domestic ecomonic policy that favours growth as a result of new competitiveness. It would be hard, but the current EC imposed austerity ain't exactly easy.

"With or without the Euro Greek pensioners would have been stuffed, with the Euro at least someone else is helping them out."

There is no prospect of life getting much better in the short term, in or out. In the mean time, the euro nations (for which read France and Germany, essentially) are stuck. A proper bailout for Greece (for example by converting Greek national debt into ECB backed Eurobonds) is politically impossible for domestic reasons. A structured default is politically impossible for eurozone reasons. Everybody knows this, and the debt markets simply reflect current thinking as to how strong the resolve is to find some kind of solution. The underlying position has not changed.

The proposition that I understand Quids to have put forward (that I agree with, and I am far from alone) is that the acceptance of Greece into the euro, in the knowledge that the stability rules would not and could not be properly applied to them, lit the fuse on an economic timebomb that has now gone off. Whether this calls into question the wisdom of the euro project in its entirety is another matter, but it's kind of beside the point. A hypothetical single currency that avoided these problems may have worked, but it never existed.

[silverfox]

"...The extent of Greek indebtedness is a direct result of euro membership..."

Just to add DaveR that that is also the case with Ireland, Spain etc.

Would it be too Machiavellian to surmise that there was a deliberate EU policy to keep rates down so that people would get into such hock that they became totally dependent (enslaved) by the EU apparatus?

A conspiracy step too far perhaps but there's a certain beauty in the simplicity of such a trap and the present reality is the impoverished citizens and states are now beholden to the EU machine and in danger of being starved into submission.

A desperate person/state will sign their freedom/sovereignty away for a loaf of bread.

[DaveR]

"Would it be too Machiavellian to surmise that there was a deliberate EU policy to keep rates down so that people would get into such hock that they became totally dependent (enslaved) by the EU apparatus?"

Yes.

[right-clicking]

I have lived in Greece off and on for a few years over the last 20, and I am amazed the country survived before the euro, let alone after! Tax dodging is a way of life for most Greeks, they explain it away as they have a lack of trust in the self satisfying corrupt politicians who line their own pockets, (same world over IMO).

Point of case; On Paros island, the local government used Google earth to see who had a swimming pool and who had declared and paid their taxes on it. only 10% had!!

This is normal and no doubt indicative of similar behaviour across the whole nation.

I believe the Euro/EU will never succeed without further integration and it would have had a better chance had the British government had the balls to pitch us in with the other nations, Forget going it alone on the world stage as an independent player, bring on The United States of Europe!!

[Huguenot]

Ridiculous of grown-ups, which I'm sure you all are, to blame the credit card company if you find you've borrowed to much.

(On the subject of grown-ups DaveR do you really think your inability to address this debate without a tirade of personal abused aimed at me is a positive reflection of either your maturity or the soundness of your argument?)

It's derived from a desperate desire to see Greece as a 'victim' to suit an anti-Euro political agenda rather than take responsibility for its own actions.

The Euro did not create the Greek crisis any more than the Bank of England is responsible for Comet going bankrupt. Both may have 'facilitated' debt by delivering the medium of currency, but neither are responsible for financial malpractice.

Believe it or not, your interpretation of events is by no means a consensus amongst economists significantly more qualified than any of us.

Either way, as I said before, your arguments come to naught in the face to an increasingly positive outlook for the political determination to succeed. You can talk about your theoretical 'proof' that it isn't working in much the same breath as you can deny gravity - the reality is that all evidence is to the contrary.

[silverfox]

"...Either way, as I said before, your arguments come to naught in the face to an increasingly positive outlook for the political determination to succeed. You can talk about your theoretical 'proof' that it isn't working in much the same breath as you can deny gravity - the reality is that all evidence is to the contrary..."

One certainly can't deny gravity, as the desperate Spaniards about to be repossessed jumping off balconies demonstrate. Not sure they'd agree that the evidence shows a positive outlook though no matter how many letters the fancy economists have after their names.

[????]

People in glass houses Huge...outstanding hypocracy. Stop attributing people with opinions they don't have CONSTANTLY. You're sounding pathetic now pleading about imaturity and namecalling. I'm just bored of this with you.It's either tedious trolling, drinking whilst posting or you do appear to have 'some issues' as the vernacular goes.

[Huguenot]

Another personal attack then Quids? Unable to answer a critique of your position?

*sighs*

This is it, the intellectual depth of your argument?

[silverfox]

DaveR Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> "Would it be too Machiavellian to surmise that

> there was a deliberate EU policy to keep rates

> down so that people would get into such hock that

> they became totally dependent (enslaved) by the EU

> apparatus?"

>

> Yes.

Would you agree that if you dangle a carrot in front of a donkey it will follow you? Well, in my opinion, the EU has certainly made asses of its 500 million citizens.

(edited due to predictive text typo)

[DaveR]

H, when I say you don't know anything, this is not a personal attack, just a reasoned deduction based on the evidence. I'm sure you're a good person.

[DaveR]

BTW, what does the second sentence here mean?

"The Euro did not create the Greek crisis any more than the Bank of England is responsible for Comet going bankrupt. Both may have 'facilitated' debt by delivering the medium of currency...."

Sorry to go back to Econ 101, but it seems to be necessary. Debt arises through the making of loans, and the interest rate is the price. If the market works properly, borrowers who are risky will have to pay more, and consequently will be able to borrow less. If it doesn't, it causes problems. Any monetary union risks distorting the market for sovereign debt amongst its members, and the euro is no exception. All of this is entirely uncontroversial (except, it appears, with you). No one (except you) is talking about 'victims', or other nonsense.

[????]

Huguenot Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Another personal attack then Quids? Unable to

> answer a critique of your position?

>

> *sighs*

>

> This is it, the intellectual depth of your

> argument?

No huge, you just ignore any bits that you don't want to hear and select the bits you want to from all posters arguments. I'm bored of explaining my position to you without having it changed/misunderstood/misrepresented etc by you.

A critique of my position? is that your version of my position or my actual position? Fundanemtally, I am royally fed up/bored of your continual slur about my views on Europe rather than the Euro which you constantly repeat and never apologise for and then have the front to talk about others slurring. I am not anti-europe, anti-EU or our membership That's a lie, repeated contstntly as fact by you (see your 2nd post on here) despite my oft repeated views on the Euro and Europe. I have debated this with you for aeons without getting personal or making up assumptions about your motivations/pyschology (see your childish 'reference to uncontrollable rage' earleir - if that's not a provocative insult what is? Just answer that please...not holding my breathe) or putting opinions you haven't expressed over as yours. It's boring debating this with you because you rarely answer direct questions, make up my opinions, insult me then resort to 'oooh look insults' rather than arguments (as i said earlier) it just goes round and round . If I am in the mood it's vaguely amusing but it gets troll like boring when I am not.

You answered NONE of this from my earlier post. Just diverting insults - which you happily accuse me of yourself.

You sir, are a missrepreesnter and a hypocrite.

[Huguenot]

DaveR, the primary engine for overblown Greek debt wasn't the Euro, but that it quite simply lied on it's self-certified credit assessment.

In 2009 the new government announced debt was 12.9% of GDP, not the 3.6% the previous government bad claimed. In other words it had persistently deceived banks about its ability to manage debt (and the size of that debt). It was this deception that created the crisis - date quite clearly to October 2009 - not the low interest rates achievable with the Euro.

It was immaterial what currency that deception was played out in.

People are trying to rewrite history to claim the single currency was at fault. It wasn't.

In the aftermath the single currency certainly made it impossible to devalue - a strategy that would have been used historically to manage the situation (but then devaluation is financial nuclear war anyway, so the Greeks would have been no better off).

It also made it more difficult to balance the economy internally by manipulating exchange rates to drive internal productivity.

[Isla]

"with the Euro at least someone is helping them out"

no they're not, they are only paying off interest they are not paying off the loan and even if they did it wouldn't be any help as they would be in the same position in ten years' time anyway.

strange thread indeed, seems like there is an inability to address the debate without 'taunting' another forumite seen right there in the first post. Unpleasant stuff.

[maxxi]

Isla Wrote:

------------------------------------------------------->

> strange thread indeed, seems like there is an

> inability to address the debate without 'taunting'

> another forumite seen right there in the first

> post. Unpleasant stuff.

Wise words - must be one of the Greek Islas...