Decision 2 April - Proposed Development - The Sidings, Railway Rise, SE22

[Cancerian]

1 hour ago, Dogkennelhillbilly said:

There it is...if you dog whistle long enough, eventually someone will bark. 

But isn’t this true? There’s no need to beat around the bush as it’s been in the news what Labour intend to do with empty properties.

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

Is what true? That the student units part of this development that hasn't yet been built is going to fall vacant because there's such a collapse in the number of students in London that they can't rent the units out, and then the Labour government is going to appropriate them to house them asylum seekers? Is that what you're asking is true?

[Cancerian]

You’ve said it!
 

 

 

 

[Sally Eva]

it isn't said on any news source that I look at.

Are you asking on social media whether what you read on other social media is true?

[LurkyMcLurker]

I think a lot of people here are just speculating about empty student accommodation properties.

Student accommodation developments are very popular because they provide really great rates of return for the owner. A large student accommodation owner, Unite Students, saw 97.5% occupancy across their assets in the 2024/2025 academic year. They have many properties in London; https://pbsanews.co.uk/2024/10/09/unite-students-reports-record-occupancy-rates-in-q3-2024-update/

Here's a bit from CBRE on PBSA properties in London from May 2024: https://www.cbre.co.uk/press-releases/london-plan-policy-fails-to-deliver-affordable-student-accommodation - "According to new research by CBRE and QX Global, the gap between demand for PBSA and available supply in London currently stands at 100,000 – 105,000 full-time students, underscoring how demand for student housing has outpaced supply." - The development pipeline in London isn't keeping up with the demand.

Ultimately this development wouldn't be built if student accommodation wasn't in demand. It's proximity to the station means that a student could get to any number of universities easily in a short span of time.

Is it ideal? No. Would more affordable housing be better? Yes. Is speculating about channel migrants occupying the space uninformed idiocy? Absolutely.

[first mate]

 

"Dedicated to the purpose-built student accommodation sector.

PBSA News is the leading source of news, insights and analysis for professionals, investors and stakeholders in the purpose-built student accommodation sector. With a mission to provide the latest information and foster collaboration within the rental community."

 

The PBSA take on the strength of the market seems much more upbeat than does the govt. research paper. Perhaps they are right or perhaps it is in their interests to talk up the market?

 

 

[LurkyMcLurker]

1 hour ago, first mate said:

The PBSA take on the strength of the market seems much more upbeat than does the govt. research paper. Perhaps they are right or perhaps it is in their interests to talk up the market.

How about we go straight to the source then if you think it's questionable:

Here's Unite Group's annual report: https://www.unitegroup.com/annual-report-and-accounts-2024 Download the PDF and you'll find the 97.5% occupancy rate. You know a lot of these news sources exist because digging through annual reports is laborious and not immediately accessible to the masses. They're reporting on what Unite Group, a public company, is reporting. It's making something more digestible.

They're not just making up numbers. They'd end up without much business if they were. PBSA is a big industry.

Here's another take (though a year older) from Cushman and Wakefield: https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-kingdom/insights/uk-student-accommodation-report 

Like CBRE, they're also reporting supply shortages. Again, to be occupied by students.

 

Edited April 27, 2025 by LurkyMcLurker

[Dogkennelhillbilly]

Exactly.

There's also a much easier way to find out how demand and supply are interacting for student housing: look at how goddamn expensive it is! It's a huge barrier to entry for students who want to study away from home.

If the price of student housing cratered, this would be great news for everyone except property developers because it would cut housing costs for students and reduce some demand on "mainstream" housing in the wider market (because students won't be looking for houseshares).

These property developers (and their financiers) aren't shovelling millions of pounds into student housing because they think the market is going to crash and they're going to lose money! And if they do, it's not really my problem...

[Penguin68]

40 minutes ago, Dogkennelhillbilly said:

aren't shovelling millions of pounds into student housing because they think the market is going to crash and they're going to lose money!

Obviously, but they may be wrong. Not only are we coming up to another population renewal drop after the continuing effects of the baby bulge generation enter a trough,  - secondary schools are closing across many boroughs - but birth rates in the UK continue to fall (not just absolute births which are also falling as a function of the bulge unwind, but births per head). And foreign student numbers are also falling. Additionally the costs of being a student are rising, which encourages more students to go to universities close enough that they don't need accommodation but can live at home. Bubbles burst, and this may be one of them.

[maddison]

Does anyone know when this will be built or if this will be built?

[the_hermit]

Yes exactly.  If essential stuff is expensive you need to make more of it.  The best cure for high prices is high prices.

[James Barber]

Such developments typically have 6-18months resolving all the conditions imposed on the approve scheme. While this going on they'll be lining up the constructions contractors, project management, etc. I'd guess 12-18months time. 

[Cancerian]

But you started this thread back in 2023 James! You must have known this site would be going ahead? Now you’re saying 12-18 months. 

[Chris wood]

When is this happening?

[Millie.]

So the entrance is coming out of Melbourne Grove and not via the library? Weird choice

Does anyone have any updates to when this would happen? Searched around but I havent seen anything else

[mitchiner]

“The final working hours of 2025 delivered another major success for Terrapin’s clients. On New Year’s Eve, Cresswick’s The Sidings scheme in East Dulwich secured its Section 106 agreement and formal planning consent, bringing to a close a long and detailed planning journey. The consent will deliver 361 purpose-built student rooms, 51 affordable homes—70% of which are family-sized—and 1,220m² of light industrial and affordable workspace on a brownfield site alongside the railway line.”

 

https://www.terrapingroup.co.uk/insights/farewell-2025

[ianr]

That looks consistent with what I saw when I checked a few weeks ago, after someone raised a fresh thread asking about the progress.  I was about to post here asking if anyone could help with what seemed a bit of  a  mystery.  The planning register didn't show the application as decided.  I couldn't find any minutes of the committee meeting that James reported on last year, or any mention in any other minutes of the application.  The meeting was itself  flagged in the meetings schedule as MOVED (presumably to another date).   Incidentally, I remember one of the atttached planning documents being a report on the financial prospects then pertaining.  As far as I understood and remember it seemed to show the construction for sale of the buildings a ? poor prospect for the investment.  I'm no expert though.

Edited January 4 by ianr

[mitchiner]

I’m not an expert either but surely having that high of affordable housing would seem like a terrible investment. My guess is that they will pay southwark a fine then make the rest of it student housing too

[ianr]

Somewhere back in the distant past, ie some time in the last year, I came across a piece, probably on radio, BBC R4, that suggested, iirc,  that the main demand for such student housing was mainly from overseas students,  and was cooling.  

Edited January 5 by ianr
typo

[Dave 3]

More likely that they cut back on the number of affordable housing units for more student rooms instead for their investment to make sense

“It is highly improbable in our experience that any development project at the current time can deliver 40% affordable housing, a range of other public benefits and a significant financial surplus. However, this letter details with each of the points in the order in which they are raised.”

[mitchiner]

I would think so too but surely they are losing money now anyways from not building for so long