Petition re Dulwich Hospital site

[civilservant]

it is mentioned somewhere in the document that the figures come from a GLA demographic model.

But no info available about the accuracy of the projections. In the whole document, only a single point of comparison is possible - the 2013 forecast of 2444 places (table 3) versus actual demand (in table 4) for 2500 places. so the model underpredicted demand by nearly 2 forms' worth of children. the reason there wasn't a crisis in 2013 was because 2636 places were actually available.

No comparison is available for previous years or for 2014.

it looks like the apparent over-supply of primary school places in ED is intended to manage GLA under-estimation of the true demand for school places.

[civilservant]

... altho i could be crediting Southwark with more sense and forward thinking than it has displayed in recent years

[LondonMix]

That would be two forms across all of Southwark though right Civil Servant? You don't need an extra two forms in each ward, which would actually be destructive.

Oversupplying places undermines school's finances as funding is per pupil. If pupils are spread amongst too many schools all schools will struggle to sustain themselves and will have to make cuts to their provisions to deal with the reduction in the number of pupils per school.

I've asked more details from the council regarding the calculation methodology and will post when I have a response but I think if they were only off by two forms for the entire borough the projections are fairly accurate.

The figures posted by civil servant indicate a 2.5% margin of error. A four form surplus of places within East Dulwich would be vast.

[civilservant]

I never suggested the solution would be an extra two forms per ward - a bit disingenuous to presume that, don't you think?

and of course funding follows the child - the onus is on the council to get its forecast right to minimise the pain to individual schools.

I also should have mentioned that the figures i quoted above were for secondary places, which should be easier to forecast than primary school places

in true geek fashion, i look forward to seeing more details of how these forecasts are arrived at.

[LondonMix]

Sorry, I wasn't accusing you of that but rather drawing the distinction for the less geeky than you and I.

I think the system they use is fairly sophisticated from memory but I'll wait to confirm what I remember when I hear back from Southwark.

The onus is on the council to get the numbers right and then for local academies and the DfE to follow those projections when approving schools and allocating land.

[bawdy-nan]

Is it the case that DfE has to respond to demonstrated need - I thought that they didn't need to (mad though that is).

[bawdy-nan]

Very interesting reading - assessment criteria ...

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/343538/free-school-applications-criteria-for-assessment-mainstream-and-16-to-19.pdf

[edhistory]

LondonMix Wrote:

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>

> I've asked more details from the council regarding

> the calculation methodology and will post when I

> have a response but I think if they were only off

> by two forms for the entire borough the

> projections are fairly accurate.

Did you also ask for the definition of "South (Dulwich)"

Without this you will not be able to advance any credible arguments.

[Fuschia]

bawdy-nan Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Very interesting reading - assessment criteria

> ...

>

> https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploa

> ds/attachment_data/file/343538/free-school-applica

> tions-criteria-for-assessment-mainstream-and-16-to

> -19.pdf

How did the second harris prinary meet the criteria?

E1 ? Provide valid evidence that there is a need for this school in the area

You will need to be able to demonstrate that you have interest from parents of a number of pupils that is close to the school?s capacity ? for each of the school?s first two years of operation and either that there is:

? no significant surplus of school places in the relevant phase in the area; or

? that the number of places in underperforming existing schools in the school?s proposed vicinity comprises a total number of pupil places greater than your proposed school?s capacity at scale. (Underperforming schools will usually be classed as schools rated as ?requires improvement? or ?inadequate? by Ofsted. However, we will also take into account pupil attainment and progression data.)

For example, if you are proposing a primary school of 420 pupils, with year groups of 60, we?d expect you to be able to show interest from parents of at least 60 pupils eligible for the first year of operation and 60 pupils eligible to join the school in the second year of operation. In addition, we?d expect you to be proposing to locate the school either in an area without a significant surplus of primary school places or in an area with at least 420 primary places in underperforming existing schools.

You must:

Complete the parental demand table in the application form showing how many parents (or students for 16 to 19) would select your school as their first choice for the first two years of the school?s life

? Demonstrate that potential parents (or students for 16 to 19) have made an informed decision when choosing your school as their first choice. Please include the text you have used in leaflets or other promotional material for prospective parents (or students for 16 to 19) about the particular characteristics of your school. You must make sure that this adequately describes the school you are proposing; we will not consider generic expressions of interest in a new school to be sufficient evidence that there is demand for the school you are proposing

? Provide a map which shows that potential pupils (or students for 16 to 19) live within commuting distance of your school

? Provide details on the extent of any current or forecast shortage (basic need) or surplus of places in the relevant phase of education within the school?s proposed vicinity (if you have already set this out in the vision section, please refer to the relevant page)

[James Barber]

Hi LondonMix,

I've said this repeatedly Harris people decided to label the second Harris primary school Nunhead. I've always said that's the wrong name. The supporters as I've said repeatedly come from the Homestall and Ivydale Roads area and south East Dulwich. But he supporting families were found.

You've repeated what evidence of need is there?

Well they provided that and obtained a approval to open a free school. THEN Belham free school was approved and THEN Southwark started the expansion of Ivydale. So I think you're asking this question of the wrong school provision.

I'm really soory you hate Harris and probalby me. But this is about ensuring the right number of school places and the best possible size of school. Not a beauty contest of political beliefs.

[LondonMix]

James I don't hate Harris- you know very well I was a loud champion and defender of their first primary school that is opening on the police site and I believe they are a strong education provider.

I also don't hate you but that does not mean both you and Harris can avoid accountability. Don't pretend this is some personal grudge rather than a real political issue impacting the community.

As noted above there is a need for Harris Nunhead as in an ideal scenario children would not commute from Nunhead to Bellenden rd. The point of the analysis above is that it makes more sense to use the potential 1-2 form surplus in Bellenden if Harris cannot locate in Nunhead before creating a school much further away in East Dulwich.

It's also very unclear how the approval for Harris Nunhead was obtained as it clearly fell outside the normal legal process and an explanation should be provided as I am beginning to question the very legality of the approved Nunhead school.

[StraferJack]

with all of the sub-clause, impact assesment and strident tone on this thread, I have a headache

Could anyone, in a simple sentence or two explain to me exactly what the problem with the building of this school is?

[LondonMix]

There are a few main issues.

1. The secondary school needs all the land not used by the NHS to have all the facilities it proposes

2. The Harris Nunhead school was proved for Nunhead and should be located there not in Dulwich

3. By 2016 Dulwich will already have a two form surplus (equivalent to an entire school). Adding another primary here would undermine the financial viability of our existing primaries resulting in cuts due to pupil based funding

4. Even if Harris can't find a site in Nunhead there are better options in Bellenden to deal with the potential shortage than building a primary school on the Dulwich Hospital site which is much more difficult to access from Nunhead

[Fuschia]

But ivydale rd to dulwich hospital is 1.8 miles. That is at the very limit of what is considered 'commutable' even outside of London, and is considerably further than most families would choose for a London prinary.

So how can Harris have plotted the supporting families onto a map as requested as part of the application, and what was the wording of the leaflet for the school ths parents signed up to. You were involved in the application, presumably, James, and have a copy of the application? How soon are the applications put into the public domain?

[StraferJack]

1 and 2 might be factual l but I don't see them as problematic

3 - supposition surely? I don't know what the increase in primary going children is likely to be in next two years but it's unlikely to be insignificant. I can easily see a situation in 3-5 years where parents are moaning about lack of places

4 - shrug. I lived next door to that site for years. Would be happy for it to be a school. I regularly walked from there to Nunhead.- can't see a single problem of any note

[Fuschia]

http://lauramcinerney.com/2013/11/19/i-won-dfe-must-release-free-school-application-forms/

The application forms can be requested by FOI.

Would be interesting to see the forms for the two Harris primaries

[StraferJack]

So are people from Nunhead claiming they have to travel to far? Is that the problem?

[LondonMix]

The hospital site will have a secondary school, that's the point. Both a primary school and a secondary school cannot comfortably be sited there and a secondary school is what is needed.

The projections prepared by the council already take into account an increase in demand for primary places in 2016. That increase in demand has already been met by two new schools opening in the Dulwich. A third new primary in Dulwich is totally unnecessary and undermines the financial viability of the existing primary schools.

Moreover the school was approved for Nunhead not here.

[StraferJack]

so Harris are opening a another primary school which will cannibalise their existing school?

[samstopit]

The problem is that the really pressing local need is for a secondary school, and the only available site is the Dulwich hospital site. People who have worked hard to get a bid for a secondary free school before DFE are not at all happy at the prospect of a primary school on the site which will take up much needed space for sports facilities and outdoor activity.

The fact that the primary school is billed as a school for nunhead and isn't considered necessary according to southwark's local projections just makes the situation even more infuriating.

The petition now has 333 supporters.

https://www.change.org/p/david-laws-mp-don-t-squeeze-two-schools-onto-the-dulwich-hospital-site

[StraferJack]

aha - in a nutshell. Cheers samstopit

[Fuschia]

It's also unclear how the second Harris bid got approved and whether it had documented specific support from families within commuting distance.

[StraferJack]

so leaving aside this site for a moment, if Southwark have factored in primary schooling for next few years what's their stated position on secondaries?

[LondonMix]

StraferJack Wrote:

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> so Harris are opening a another primary school

> which will cannibalise their existing school?

No, as average pupil numbers fall across Dulwich all local schools funding will drop undermining their financial viability.

But as I and Samsopit have said, in addition to it being inappropriate to open another primary school here period, much less one approved for another area which cannot access it readily on the proposed site, the site Harris is targeting is needed for a secondary school for which there is both need and strong community support.

[LondonMix]

There is a huge need for secondary places in the coming years. It will reach crisis levels by 2018 according to Southwark projections