If even Winkworth says that...

[jj2]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/206bc146-79f3-11e4-9b34-00144feabdc0.html

and given the source this should be the optimistic view!

I would not be surprised at all to see a 10-20% dip in 2015, particularly if Labour wins the elections...

[StraferJack]

so, lower house prices - have we decided if it's a Good Thing or a Bad Thing yet?

[????]

,,,they say a 5% drop in central London.....you turn this into a 10-20% drop overall?

[jj2]

???? the 5% drop is said by an Estate Agent!

[Mustard]

OP is looking to buy, so is hopeful of a huge drop.

[JohnL]

Really that doesn't put even a small dent in the last years increase

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2852840/House-prices-climb-time-high-November-pace-growth-continues-slow-Nationwide-index-shows.html

[DaveR]

If you read the whole story they are suggesting that Central London property values will decline in the first half of 2015 due to uncertainty pre-election re mansion tax, but then recover in second half to be flat overall for the year. Presumably the second half recovery is dependent on a not-Labour victory in the election. Then it says:

?Suburban London [that's us, I guess] is expected to be impacted as the rapid growth seen in 2014 slows, helping to rebalance supply and demand. Caution before the polls suggests that prices will be flat for the first half of the year, before rising modestly by year end,?

So it's a kind of 'no news' news story, other than an implied dig at the mansion tax. Re good thing/bad thing, at the properly macro level the best solution to high London house prices is a booming economy in the other regions of the UK, but obviously easier said than done. In the mean time, there's an obvious need to build more homes in London and the SE.

[El Pibe]

Read something the other day that there is now a modest trend of people in their 30s moving to other urban centres raht er then the burb or commuter belt. Small beginnings perhaps, but can only be good in the long run for londoners and the economy as a whole if sustained.

[jj2]

If you exclude speculators, only people who would benefit from house price increases are people who plan to go to live in cheaper areas, e.g. they are looking to retire in the country or planning to go to live in a cheaper country.

For everyone else, I can't see how this can benefit them.

And btw, just look at the high streets of places with more expensive real estate - that would simply mean good bye independent shops.

[Salsaboy]

Hahahahaha.....

jj2 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

if Labour wins the elections...

[jj2]

Salsaboy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Hahahahaha.....

>

>

> jj2 Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> if Labour wins the elections...

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

[Loz]

jj2 Wrote:

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> If you exclude speculators, only people who would benefit from house price increases are people who

> plan to go to live in cheaper areas

But decreases can affect non-speculators as well, leaving them in negative equity and unable to move. Plus the added knock on effects on the economy, pension pots, etc, etc. 'Decrease' can be just as bad as 'increase', sometime worse.

[Mick Mac]

jj2 Wrote:

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> If you exclude speculators, only people who would

> benefit from house price increases are people who

> plan to go to live in cheaper areas,

Eh - the more the house is worth, then the more you are worth. Anyone with a house and is not intending ever to move again is better off and possibly happier. Also you can take out additional borrowings when the value goes up allowing you to improve/extend.

[MrBen]

Mick Mac Wrote:

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> Eh - the more the house is worth, then the more you are worth.

Technically yes...but you still need somewhere to live and excluding the primary home from any "net worth" calculation is always sound practice for personal finance. if you exclude your home what other assets do you have? People usually go quiet at that point. An inflated sense of "net worth" linked to housing is responsible for influencing spending psychology in many other areas. Scary when you think about it.

[????]

Scarier is that it's been the major engine of UK Consumer spending for 20 or so years

[jj2]

Depending on which type of reader you are...

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/dec/15/london-house-prices-fall-more-than-30000-month

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/11293494/House-prices-fall-by-30000-in-just-four-weeks-in-some-parts-of-UK.html

[JohnL]

I'd bet on Labour + Nationalist coalition at the moment.

Salsaboy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Hahahahaha.....

>

>

> jj2 Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> if Labour wins the elections...

[Loz]

JohnL Wrote:

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> I'd bet on Labour + Nationalist coalition at the moment.

That's a constitutional crisis in the making. The SNP has long had a convention that they will not vote in Westminster on issues that only affect England. That could leave Labour with a coalition majority on UK issues, but a minority on English issues.

The Lib Dems would be needed as well. They should still have about 20 MPs.