Betting Matters....

[Peckhamgatecrasher]

What odds are you offering on Angry 185 Driver versus Cat Flap thread?

[????]

Gooosen now 24 and woods 6.4....now i should trade both of these for guaranteed profit.......

[Mick Mac]

Ok Quids - your help please - I have ?5 on Villegas at 95 - he is now 25s - how can I make money out of that?

[Mick Mac]

David Howell is 500/1 on Betfair - he is 2 under so those seem very long odds - so another ?2 on that for me.

[????]

Mick Mac Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Ok Quids - your help please - I have ?5 on

> Villegas at 95 - he is now 25s - how can I make

> money out of that?

lay him at say ?15 .......if he wins you win ?475 on the win and pay ?375 on the lay so profit ?100

or he loses, you win ?15 on the lay, lose ?5 on the bet...profit ?10

Guaranteed profit

ps excluded commmsion for simplicity

[Mick Mac]

Thanks Quids - I thought it might work something like that - I think I might stick with him a little longer though as I don't really think ?10 guaranteed profit would put much of a dent in the ?70 I have now placed on the Open.

Also its the big wins that give you most satisfaction, so hedging, whilst prudent, must take away a lot of the potential excitement.

A lot of my best bets over the years have been losing bets, ?5 or ?10 at long odds which fails at the last hurdle is exciting. Its the big wins that put me in profit over the last few years, they fund a lot of small losing bets.

If Villegas were to win and I had laid it off I'd feel I picked him at 95s and gave ?375 of my profit away.

I'm just thinking though it as I type. I guess if he has a good day tomorrow, I might follow your advice and lay him then at shorter odds so I'm not giving away so much if he should win.

Cheers for the help.

Think Woods is now a better bet than he was yesterday - he can easliy make up 5/6 shots - he was rubbish today and still shot 71. He is still very dangerous.

[????]

Gambling not trading - but that's cool. If you were trading you'd be happy with a 2/1 or 20/1 guranteed profit, you'd be doing this with far more cash and frequently.

I will be gambling too I think. I can effectively get a free ?10 bet on tiger at 3/1 if i fancy it, which think i may go for. I'm gonna stay with Goosen (gambling)

[Mick Mac]

Yep - I like to gamble - more fun really. But the problem is its only one of many bets on this tournament, so it would not be a guaranteed profit, if he lost, I'd be ?60 down overall. I need one of the guys to win to get me a profit overall.

What I have done in the past is if I have a big potential win towards the end of a tournament, I'd put a couple of savers on the most likely other winners, this is a hedging which allows me a significant upside, whilst not being guaranteed, as someone else could enter the equation unexpectedly.

For example with my Duval bet, I'd have backed Glover near the end, but was at work so could not do it. In the French Open I backed Kaymar near the end to win a small profit, when Westwood would have been a better result.

So I do hedge sometimes, just differently. But I'd never give up a big share of a potential ?500+ win, those are the fun bets.

[????]

yup - I just did 2 bets and a lay so different tactics. But you must have others who have shortened?

[????]

embrace the lay ;-)

[Mick Mac]

Eh.....

Well Villegas is the only one who has shotened significantly. Most have shortened but only a few points. I have a few who have lengthened too.

Think Howell is great odds at 500/1 though.

[????]

that looks too good- you sure he's not got an injury or ill relative or something?

villegas won't win methinks -take a profit :))

[????]

changed my mind, traded - now have free bets on Tiger and Goosen

[????]

....oh, and still with Mathan but that's looking dead!

[Mick Mac]

howell has had a poor 2 years and an injury but hope return to form now as he was a top prospect (and has ?2 of my hard earned on him).

[red devil]

Weather has turned and is only going to get worse, so after today we should get a good idea of who will make a serious challenge over the final two days. Goosen in a good position. I think Woods could struggle if his game doesn't pick up, yesterday the conditions were forgiving, no room for error today!..

[Mick Mac]

Tom Watson is the best bad weather player in the history of golf - but those aching bones. Having said that he's only the same age as Bruce Springsteen and he can jump around for 3 hours, so if Watson is fit enough who knows. Would be great to see him still in the mix come Sunday, he was one of my heroes growing up.

Woods has always coped as well as anyone with the poor weather at the Open.

[Mick Mac]

Betfair must be bouncing this morning - Most of the field are falling apart - Harrington, Goosen and Furyk holding it together best so far.

[????]

Back to the GGs, Fatboy 8.20pm Newmarket, stepping down in class

[Mick Mac]

Fatboy is carrying too much weight surely?

My golf bets are just hanging in there at the mo - of my 10 (!!) bets 5 guys are under par, so hope they can stay there as its raining. 2 of the ten will miss the cut and McIlroy and Harrington are on the cut mark, so really out of it unless they can make a major move tomorrow.

[Mick Mac]

Tiger about to bogey 12th hole to go +6 - surely he will miss the cut now????? only HE could turn it round from here.

[red devil]

Goosen looking good, Watson as well but I'm sure he'll drop back unless they slip something into his Horlicks...

Was given this tip today, Hypnotic Gaze in the 8.05 at Ponte, stable in good form, odds suggest EW...

[????]

wish I hadn't traded - goosen is far lower tonight and Tiger!!!!

oh well, still quits on tiger and goosen still potential

[Reg Smeeton]

?10 on Australia to win at Lord's at 7:1. Bookies are already writing Australia off, but this is the team that scored 670 just last weekend....England enforce follow-on, Australia score 450 in second innings, England crumble chasing 200 with Clarke and North spinning them to victory on a fifth day pitch. Alas it's only too plausible an outcome, 7 to 1 seem like good odds.

[????]

maybe - 7/1 not big enough for me but i do see your point