Betting Matters....

[Mick Mac]

It is sensible but will take any excitement out of the bet as far as the France England game is concerned and mostly thats where you get the fun out of your bet.

Anyway - off to watch the rugger again - more guinness....

[????]

Now, tell me honestly that for most of that game you weren't thinking "I'm so glad I hedged that"

[Mick Mac]

spot on. I was very relaxed.

[Kells]

PGC - I would love a day trip to a point to point. Or the races, I'm not too fussed.

I agree with Quids - I'd much rather watch a race/game knowing that I'd won whatever the outcome. How can I enjoy it if there's money on it?!

[Peckhamgatecrasher]

Bummer - there was a good meet at Detling yesterday. I'll have a look for some others not too far away.

[Kells]

I'm always slow catching on! Definitely interested in future ones though, thanks

[????]

I think we talked about a summer evening EDF race night last year...I'd be up for it.

[????]

Chelsea as high as 3/1 for the Premiership. They're 4 points off but They've a game in hand and have to play Man U at OT....mmmmmm. Man Us Goal Difference could be key.

[Peckhamgatecrasher]

I could do a summer evening - sounds deliciously decadent.

[Mick Mac]

Sea the Stars - the sequel - coming soon.

Sea the Stars does the business...

[????]

Went to Newbury races on Saturday for my mum's birthday - crap racing, big fields, novices etc but still a good day out and a family tradition...but my nephew won the Placepot...?2 to win ?245, not bad for a 13 year old but you could see he's got the bug!

[Mick Mac]

That should keep him in betting funds for a few years to come.

[????]

Not on my tips!

[Narnia]

Mick & Quids, would one of you explain the concept of laying a bet in terms of an example. I have a little account since getting a free bet but have a problem with the maths when it comes to laying. Obviously BF does it for you. Question is what are they doing? Thanks.

[????]

It means you can become the bookie Declan. Say Ireland are 6 (decimal) to win the Grand Slam and you don't think they've a cat in hells chance you can lay it...in effect offer 6. So if you lay ?2 you'll win just ?2 if they fail...if they get the Grand Slam you're ?10 down. Risky business.

BUT...you can use it for Hedging and trading more but that's an entirely different story

[Narnia]

Thanks for that Quids but it leads me to ask why it's so risky? Say in any given footie match there are 3 possible outcomes, by laying you are banking on either of two of the three happening. If that's right is the risk you refer to being what losses you might incur if you are wrong?

[????]

You're right but it's the odds that do you in as a small experiment I tried laying for ?2 the opposition of Liverpool/Man U/Arsenal/Chelsea a few years back...West Ham neat Man U once and Arsenal twice that season at odds of between 8-13. So costing me about ?20 a pop. Most weeks Kerching ?8 more quid in the bank but you only need one or two of the bigger upsets and you've a lot to claw back!

[????]

You're right but it's the odds that do you in as a small experiment I tried laying for ?2 the opposition of Liverpool/Man U/Arsenal/Chelsea a few years back...West Ham neat Man U once and Arsenal twice that season at odds of between 8-13. So costing me about ?20 a pop. Most weeks Kerching ?8 more quid in the bank but you only need one or two of the bigger upsets and you've a lot to claw back!

[????]

Declan, the real thing about betting is that broadly the odds are normally 'about right' but slightly in favour of the bookmaker on Betfair they are probably more equal. But effectively the probability is about right. So to gamble successfully (traditionally -ie not trading) you need to look where you think the bookies have got their probability wrong - that is called value - and then go big. This takes a combination of balls, a knowledge better than the market maker and a bankroll ( a serious gambler will stack big on something that they think is priced wrong but offers value ie their probability = 6/1 the bookies 8/1 then in the long run this is likely to be a profitable play but requires a bankroll). To illustrate a professional gambler if offered 2/1 on a coin flip on the proviso they had to bet at least ?10,000 pounds would take it no problem, it's value...would you if you had it as spare cash?

there are exceptions to the market being about right IE England are always a stupidly short price for World Cups because so many people put money on them, and these offer opportunities too.

[Mick Mac]

Small bets on Mickleson and Leonard for the Masters as they seem both in reasonable form. Leaonard is 125/1 as he presumably has apoor masters record.

Declan - Woods is 4/1 for the Masters. I'm amazed at this. If you want to lay something this may be your chance.

I'm very tempted to lay this myself. In my view he is a broken man - but then he's proven to be unpredictable so who knows.

Rory Mc is 55 on betfair - worth a few quid but no recent form.

[????]

Naah

I've been laying Woods for two years and he's only just been above evens for most of that period (a mad price, like England), so one win (PGA) has meant I've been well up on this tactic....5s is too risky imo

[????]

PS He's lost it since his injury, sadly this extra stuff has ruined one of my favourite bets

[Mick Mac]

personally i think he may never win another major.Lay lady lay.

[Mick Mac]

Have added Kim and Campbell to my list of bets.

Rory

Big Phil

Leonard

Kim

Campbell

To that I will peobably add whoever is winning after 2 rounds...etc etc

[Narnia]

Who will win.

A few going for Harrington, Mick. Have you got him covered?