Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Mick Mac Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Ok Quids - your help please - I have ?5 on

> Villegas at 95 - he is now 25s - how can I make

> money out of that?



lay him at say ?15 .......if he wins you win ?475 on the win and pay ?375 on the lay so profit ?100


or he loses, you win ?15 on the lay, lose ?5 on the bet...profit ?10


Guaranteed profit


ps excluded commmsion for simplicity

Thanks Quids - I thought it might work something like that - I think I might stick with him a little longer though as I don't really think ?10 guaranteed profit would put much of a dent in the ?70 I have now placed on the Open.

Also its the big wins that give you most satisfaction, so hedging, whilst prudent, must take away a lot of the potential excitement.

A lot of my best bets over the years have been losing bets, ?5 or ?10 at long odds which fails at the last hurdle is exciting. Its the big wins that put me in profit over the last few years, they fund a lot of small losing bets.


If Villegas were to win and I had laid it off I'd feel I picked him at 95s and gave ?375 of my profit away.


I'm just thinking though it as I type. I guess if he has a good day tomorrow, I might follow your advice and lay him then at shorter odds so I'm not giving away so much if he should win.


Cheers for the help.


Think Woods is now a better bet than he was yesterday - he can easliy make up 5/6 shots - he was rubbish today and still shot 71. He is still very dangerous.

Gambling not trading - but that's cool. If you were trading you'd be happy with a 2/1 or 20/1 guranteed profit, you'd be doing this with far more cash and frequently.


I will be gambling too I think. I can effectively get a free ?10 bet on tiger at 3/1 if i fancy it, which think i may go for. I'm gonna stay with Goosen (gambling)

Yep - I like to gamble - more fun really. But the problem is its only one of many bets on this tournament, so it would not be a guaranteed profit, if he lost, I'd be ?60 down overall. I need one of the guys to win to get me a profit overall.


What I have done in the past is if I have a big potential win towards the end of a tournament, I'd put a couple of savers on the most likely other winners, this is a hedging which allows me a significant upside, whilst not being guaranteed, as someone else could enter the equation unexpectedly.


For example with my Duval bet, I'd have backed Glover near the end, but was at work so could not do it. In the French Open I backed Kaymar near the end to win a small profit, when Westwood would have been a better result.


So I do hedge sometimes, just differently. But I'd never give up a big share of a potential ?500+ win, those are the fun bets.

Weather has turned and is only going to get worse, so after today we should get a good idea of who will make a serious challenge over the final two days. Goosen in a good position. I think Woods could struggle if his game doesn't pick up, yesterday the conditions were forgiving, no room for error today!..

Tom Watson is the best bad weather player in the history of golf - but those aching bones. Having said that he's only the same age as Bruce Springsteen and he can jump around for 3 hours, so if Watson is fit enough who knows. Would be great to see him still in the mix come Sunday, he was one of my heroes growing up.


Woods has always coped as well as anyone with the poor weather at the Open.

Fatboy is carrying too much weight surely?


My golf bets are just hanging in there at the mo - of my 10 (!!) bets 5 guys are under par, so hope they can stay there as its raining. 2 of the ten will miss the cut and McIlroy and Harrington are on the cut mark, so really out of it unless they can make a major move tomorrow.

?10 on Australia to win at Lord's at 7:1. Bookies are already writing Australia off, but this is the team that scored 670 just last weekend....England enforce follow-on, Australia score 450 in second innings, England crumble chasing 200 with Clarke and North spinning them to victory on a fifth day pitch. Alas it's only too plausible an outcome, 7 to 1 seem like good odds.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Latest Discussions

    • Honestly, the squirrels are not a problem now.  They only eat what has dropped.  The feeders I have are squirrel proof anyway from pre-cage times.  I have never seen rats in the garden, and even when I didn't have the cage.  I most certainly would have noticed them.  I do have a little family of mice which I have zero problem about.  If they stay outside, that's fine with me.  Plus, local cats keep that population down.  There are rats everywhere in London, there is plenty of food rubbish out in the street to keep them happy.  So, I guess you could fit extra bars to the cage if you wanted to, but then you run the risk of the birds not getting in.  They like to be able to fly in and out easily, which they do.   
    • Ahh, the old "it's only three days" chestnut.  I do hope you realise the big metal walls, stages, tents, toilets, lighting, sound equipment, refreshments, concessions etc don't just magically appear & disappear overnight? You know it all has to be transported in & erected, constructed? And that when stuff is constructed, like on a construction site, it's quite noisy & distracting? Banging, crashing, shouting, heavy plant moving around - beep beep beep reversing signals, engines revving - pneumatic tools? For 8 to 10 hours a day, every day? And that it tends to go on for two or three weeks before an event, and a week after when they take it all down again? I'm sure my boys' GCSE prep won't be affected by any of that, especially if we close the windows (before someone suggests that as a resolution). I'm sure it won't affect anyone at the Harris schools either, actually taking their exams with that background noise.
    • Thanks for the good discussion, this should be re-titled as a general thread about feeding the birds. @Penguin not really sure why you posted, most are aware that virtually all land in this country is managed, and has been for 100s of years, but there are many organisations, local and national government, that manage large areas of land that create appropriate habitats for British nature, including rewilding and reintroductions.  We can all do our bit even if this is not cutting your lawn, and certainly by not concreting over it.  (or plastic grass, urgh).   I have simply been stating that garden birds are semi domesticated, as perhaps the deer herds in Richmond Park, New Forest ponies, and even some foxes where we feed them.  Whoever it was who tried to get a cheap jibe in about Southwark and the Gala festival.  Why?  There is a whole thread on Gala for you to moan on.  Lots going on in Southwark https://www.southwark.gov.uk/culture-and-sport/parks-and-open-spaces/ecology-and-wildlife I've talked about green sqwaky things before, if it was legal I'd happily use an air riffle, and I don't eat meat.  And grey squirrels too where I am encourage to dispatch them. Once a small group of starlings also got into the garden I constructed my own cage using starling proof netting, it worked for a year although I had to make a gap for the great spotted woodpecker to get in.  The squirrels got at it in the summer but sqwaky things still haven't come back, starlings recently returned.  I have a large batch of rubbish suet pellets so will let them eat them before reordering and replacing the netting. Didn't find an appropriately sized cage, the gaps in the mesh have to be large enough for finches etc, and the commercial ones were £££ The issue with bird feeders isn't just dirty ones, and I try to keep mine clean, but that sick birds congregate in close proximity with healthy birds.  The cataclysmic obliteration of the greenfinch population was mainly due to dirty feeders and birds feeding close to each other.  
    • Another recommendation for Niko - fitted me in the next day, simple fix rather than trying to upsell and a nice guy as well. Will use again
Home
Events
Sign In

Sign In



Or sign in with one of these services

Search
×
    Search In
×
×
  • Create New...