(odds for the Dulwich & West Norwood seat at the next) General Election

[shadsy]

Ladbrokes have released odds for the Dulwich & West Norwood seat at the next General Election

Labour 1/5

Conservatives 7/2

Liberal Democrats 20/1

[spenny]

Tessa Jowell is absolutely nailed on here. 1/5 is a massive price IMO.

[????]

well she got nearly twice as many votes as the lib-dem.....but 1/5!

[budur]

The Tories have a good chance round here I've heard. A lot of Tory voters have moved in over the last few years. Let's hope so.

[Sue]

budur Wrote:

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> The Tories have a good chance round here I've

> heard. A lot of Tory voters have moved in over the

> last few years. Let's hope so.

xxxxxxx

Let's hope not.

[Weegee]

Im not a betting man....so does that mean....that Labour has longer odds of winning this than the Tories?

[????]

Nope shorter, if you put ?100 on Labour and they won you'd get a measly ?20 profit back, whereas the same bet on the Tories (if they won) would give you ?350 profit. I thought the Lib Dems were second here last time? If so, 20/1 is the value bet!

Edited to shorter not longer!

[puzzled]

tories have NO chance round here... not even in a very bad year for labour. so you've heard wrong

[Brendan]

At the last election the LibDems were up 9.2% from the previous whereas labour was down 9.5%. Although they still got 54%

The level of conservative support has remained relatively static. Probably due to the fact that you aren?t allowed to subdivide the houses in the Village and sell the flats off to first time buyers.

Responsibly referenced from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dulwich_and_West_Norwood_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

[sophiesofa]

I have no idea to vote for.

[kpc]

???? Wrote:

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> whereas

> the same bet on the Tories (if they won) would

> give you ?350 profit.

Nowhere near enough to numb the pain or pay for my escape....

[????]

Cheers Brendan - looking at those results then Lib dems at 20/1 looks quite tempting.

I vaguely seem to remember that Dulwich WAS a tory seat in the 1980s (Bowden?) but I think they've changed boundaries since

[Bic Basher]

Indeed, Gerry Bowden was the MP until 1992 of the old Dulwich constituency. Tessa won the same seat in 1997 and then won the merged Dulwich and West Norwood one in 2001.

However there is yet ANOTHER boundary change in 2010 where only Village (SE21), College (SE21/SE22) and East Dulwich wards will be part of Tessa's patch along with a big patch of Lambeth. The rest of our postcode transfers over to Harriet Harman's Peckham and Camberwell constituency.

The Tory vote seems to be at it's strongest in Village and College wards.

[Applespider]

Hmmm.... I live in College ward. I wonder if that's why I've received an invite from Tessa to a surgery with tea and juice on Saturday - along with my neighbours.

[Bic Basher]

Snap, I was invited to the coffee morning too.

College Ward has Dawson Heights, Lordship Lane Estate, Sydenham Hill Estate and Kingswood Estate which you'd think would be Labour strong parts of the area.

[Pugwash]

Tessa Jowell's popularity has waned over the past few years- partly due to her cabinet role and not being seen around DAWN ( Dulwich and West Norwood). Secondly- her husband did not help the situation with all the goings on with the Italian PM, for which he now may receive a jail sentance. Tessa has been seen in East Dulwich - she was in North Cross Road apparently a few weeks back. I do a lot of community work and used to bump into Tessa frequently at various events -I don't think we have been at the same events over the past 3 plus years.

One person I do bump into frequently at Community Events is the Lib. Dem. PPC - Jonathan Mitchell. I hear from associates in Lambeth that he spends a great deal of time on that side of the fence as well ( more than Tessa it seems) The Tory candidate for DAWN has been seen on a couple of ocassions.

[ratty]

budur Wrote:

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> The Tories have a good chance round here I've

> heard. A lot of Tory voters have moved in over the

> last few years. Let's hope so.

Not if you value society.

I just hope Tory voters get what they deserve.

[peckhamboy]

Are you all seriously so blinded by class prejudice that you think Labour are the best option? Gordon's views are unprincipled, small-minded and represent the politics of envy. All he is interested in is being PM and for him that is enough - at least Blair wanted to be PM in order to do something. Gordon wants to penalise hard work and re-create class divides - ultimately everyone will suffer.

[Brendan]

You?re not wrong but it still doesn?t mean that conservative policy isn?t going to further entrench and broaden social inequality thereby creating larger and more diverse class divides.

[peckhamboy]

True, but this time I can't believe it really is "better the devil you know". Besides, I'm not against class divides and social entrenchment per se - as long as I'm on the right side of it...

[ratty]

Lesser of two evils by a long point. Believe me when I say that David Cameron is an utter vicious b@stard who shoul dnot be allowed within 10,000 miles of power.

Vote Tory and reap what you sow!

[Brendan]

There aren't only 2 choices.

Hopefull right thinking people will realise this and Quids can cash in on those 20/1 odds being offered.

[Brendan]

That?s not ?right? thinking as opposed to ?left? thinking mind. What I meant was those who correctly no longer think in terms of right and left.

Makes sense no?

[SeanMacGabhann]

It's 2011 and Ratty prepeare to write the longest "I told you so" post EVER....

So for the record I'm with ratty at this early stage. And whilst the Blair/Brown thing is done and needs to be swept away, I don't see anything to back up the statement "Gordon wants to penalise hard work and re-create class divides "

And yes Brendan there are more than two choices, but given the current voting system the canny voter has to play the long game and not waste the vote

[peckhamboy]

So you think that we should be judging the next government one year after the election? No doubt in 1998 you were there saying that Blair needed time to make a difference because the Tory years had left the country in such a terrible state. Funny how people forget when the situation's reversed.

Whoever wins, it's going to be years before the economy is remotely robust again. If Labour win, Gordon will increase taxes on employment - eg income tax and NI (including employer contributions which will help to deter recruitment). To my mind, that is penalising rather than encouraging hard work. He has also announced plans to save literally hundreds of pounds by abolishing the childcare voucher scheme for anyone earning effectively more than minimum wage - which will act as a deterrent to women to return to work after having a child because the amount you would need to earn pre-tax just to cover nursery care and travelling expenses out of the net pay is higher than the average wage. Whereas, if the allowance were to be increased, it would help women to return to work and the tax take from their employment would be significantly higher than the savings from the cuts. But that wouldn't tie in with his mission to screw anyone he perceives as "middle class".