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messageAre houses selling around here at all?
Posted by James 02 July, 2018 22:46

The agents say "It's not too bad". (They would, wouldn't they?)

My feeling is that Brexit fear means the market is at a virtual standstill.

Our gorgeous house has been on for weeks with barely any interest.

Anyone got any anecdotal evidence of whether things are selling - and if so, for how much less than the asking price?

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by L16579 03 July, 2018 07:01

Our flat too, I canít believe anything is selling. Iíve seen a number of houses and flats go under offer and then a few weeks later they are back on the market.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by eastdulwichproperty 03 July, 2018 09:33

Hardly anything is selling, the things that are heavily reduced from a year ago, take off about 20% from the peak, even more in some cases. Never ever trust what an estate agent says

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by dbboy 03 July, 2018 09:54

The market has been slowing down significantly for the last 18+ months, three years ago, the market was buoyant and booming. It took something like two years to sell a house, with a sizable reduction.

Why - Estate Agents over egged the market and pushed prices up, now the chickens are coming home to roost. A lack of certainty in the market with prices dropping, people do not want to buy in case prices drop further, stamp duty is crippling the middle to top end of the market, which in effect is money down the drain, you never get back.

Brexit is the Estate Agents answer to everything, however the last conversation with the Agent after selling went along the lines of, until we leave the EC in less than a year the market will remain slow and potentially prices will drop further, there is no crystal ball.

After that for the following two years it will still remain sluggish until there is certainty about the future and things have settled. So what do the agents do, they increasing their rates to 1.5% to compensate as sellers are requiring multiple viewings to get one sale.

Which ever way you look at it, you have the choice of sitting it out for three years and seeing where the market is then or selling at a lower price knowing where you are buying is probably doing the same thing. Good luck, it was difficult, painful at times, frustrating but eventually relieving. ps. Surveyors and bulders are not helping as they to are taking ful advantage of the situation.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by JohnL 03 July, 2018 10:05

dbboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The market has been slowing down significantly for
> the last 18+ months, three years ago, the market
> was buoyant and booming. It took something like
> two years to sell a house, with a sizable
> reduction.
>
> Why - Estate Agents over egged the market and
> pushed prices up, now the chickens are coming home
> to roost. A lack of certainty in the market with
> prices dropping, people do not want to buy in case
> prices drop further, stamp duty is crippling the
> middle to top end of the market, which in effect
> is money down the drain, you never get back.
>
> Brexit is the Estate Agents answer to everything,
> however the last conversation with the Agent after
> selling went along the lines of, until we leave
> the EC in less than a year the market will remain
> slow and potentially prices will drop further,
> there is no crystal ball.
>
> After that for the following two years it will
> still remain sluggish until there is certainty
> about the future and things have settled. So what
> do the agents do, they increasing their rates to
> 1.5% to compensate as sellers are requiring
> multiple viewings to get one sale.
>
> Which ever way you look at it, you have the choice
> of sitting it out for three years and seeing where
> the market is then or selling at a lower price
> knowing where you are buying is probably doing the
> same thing. Good luck, it was difficult, painful
> at times, frustrating but eventually relieving.
> ps. Surveyors and bulders are not helping as they
> to are taking ful advantage of the situation.

Everything with Brexit is "wait and see" so I can understand the effect. We really don't know whats going to happen.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by char1i3 03 July, 2018 10:35

Estate agents don't push up prices, buyers do. The higher stamp duty on second properties and expensive houses has massively dented the market. This is not a new phenomenon - last year was bad too. There are far more properties available that are now much less desirable because of the huge stamp duty associated with them. To buy a £900,000 house requires £35k in stamp duty. A £400,000 buy to let costs £38k in stamp duty. Mortgage rates are so low that owners would rather borrow extra to extend or do the loft.

[www.thisismoney.co.uk]

[www.thetimes.co.uk]


Conversely commercial property is booming and prices are higher than ever - I reckon up about 30% in a couple of years.

Charlie

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by flocker spotter 03 July, 2018 10:49

all houses will sell if they are priced at a level that people want to pay - if your gaff is not getting any interest, then maybe there is a clue in there somewhere

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by Rubik 03 July, 2018 10:50

Ours has been up since the start of the year, without much interest, and we knocked a fair amount of the price not too long ago to no real effect.

The thing is lower prices are good - less fees, less tax; but it has to be that everyone follows suit. I still see new properties coming in that are very over valued (in my opinion), it makes the market look more expensive than it actually is and therefore more people cling on to the higher prices, creating stagnation.

I expect as interest rates start to finally go up, we'll see a sharper decline in prices.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by JohnL 03 July, 2018 12:18

Even Zoopla is now saying prices have been falling for 2 years.

That's about how long they fell for IIRC after the crash in 2008. You never see the downturn or upturn come until you've past it though and we've got Brexit.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by JohnL 03 July, 2018 12:22

Rubik Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> The thing is lower prices are good - less fees,

Not if you've got an inherited house to sell in Swansea with two sisters involved LOL smiling smiley

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by Jules-and-Boo 03 July, 2018 13:12

To be honest, it's about time housing dropped to realistic levels

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by JohnL 03 July, 2018 13:15

Jules-and-Boo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To be honest, it's about time housing dropped to
> realistic levels

At a guess it won't though if it follows previous patterns - it'll pause/fall for a little while then accelerate again.

To fall to realistic levels (I'll say that's 3 x average income) would require a society changing event

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by apbremer 03 July, 2018 13:15

The absurd and punitive levels of stamp duty have killed the market.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by Jules-and-Boo 03 July, 2018 13:18

and Brexit isn't?

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by JohnL 03 July, 2018 13:27

First time buyers are OK (they get relief up to 500K) - it's 2nd home owners and expensive properties that are hit.

2nd home owners have been hit hard - and the government is looking for money for the NHS this autumn too.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by JohnL 03 July, 2018 13:28

Jules-and-Boo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> and Brexit isn't?


LOL - perhaps smiling smiley

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by Rubik 03 July, 2018 13:49

JohnL Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rubik Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > The thing is lower prices are good - less fees,
>
> Not if you've got an inherited house to sell in
> Swansea with two sisters involved LOL smiling smiley


Ha, fair point.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by rendelharris 03 July, 2018 13:53

apbremer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The absurd and punitive levels of stamp duty have
> killed the market.

Stamp duty is currently £3,750 more on a million pound house than it was in 2011 (£43,750 against £40,000). On a half million pound house it's the same as it was in 2011 (£15k). That's neither punitive nor absurd, taxes have to come from somewhere. Just tell the truth, which is that rightwingers don't like taxes of any sort, and particularly ones that are weighted so that the richest pay a bit more. Was the housing market dead in 2011?

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by alice 03 July, 2018 14:02

About 50% of houses on rightmove (se22) between £650000 and £125000 are sold/ under offer. But prices are dropping between 10-20%

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by James 03 July, 2018 15:09

Alice, beware looking at websites with 'sold/under offer' properties on them... who knows how long they have been on there? I notice in slow periods agents leave these up for months on end to give the impression things are moving faster than they are.

>>all houses will sell if they are priced at a level that people want to pay - if your gaff is not getting any interest, then maybe there is a clue in there somewhere

And Flocker Spotter, this is an obvious point and not helpful. How would you feel if you were selling and I told you to discount your house heavily as the market was slow? Especially since our house is priced competitively in comparison with other similar properties. It is very unsettling when you do not know what your money will buy. And risk heavily losing out.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by JohnL 03 July, 2018 15:15

James Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Alice, beware looking at websites with 'sold/under
> offer' properties on them... who knows how long
> they have been on there? I notice in slow periods
> agents leave these up for months on end to give
> the impression things are moving faster than they
> are.
>
> >>all houses will sell if they are priced at a
> level that people want to pay - if your gaff is
> not getting any interest, then maybe there is a
> clue in there somewhere
>
> And Flocker Spotter, this is an obvious point and
> not helpful. How would you feel if you were
> selling and I told you to discount your house
> heavily as the market was slow? Especially since
> our house is priced competitively in comparison
> with other similar properties. It is very
> unsettling when you do not know what your money
> will buy. And risk heavily losing out.

It depends how desperate you are to sell. Those not desperate probably holding at present if they're in your situation I'd think. But you can't put your life on hold for ever I suppose.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by rendelharris 03 July, 2018 16:03

James Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> And Flocker Spotter, this is an obvious point and
> not helpful. How would you feel if you were
> selling and I told you to discount your house
> heavily as the market was slow? Especially since
> our house is priced competitively in comparison
> with other similar properties. It is very
> unsettling when you do not know what your money
> will buy. And risk heavily losing out.

That's FS's specialty I'm afraid, sneering putdowns of others while not offering anything helpful, informative or constructive to debate. S/he obviously enjoys it, it's rather tiresome for everyone else. That comment is a case in point - if you reduced your £500,000 flat to £250,000, you'd sell it at once. No, really?

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by flocker spotter 03 July, 2018 16:14

Outliers aside, UK housing broadly moves in the same direction, if you know where you are moving to, then surely it is not massively outrageous to take this into account? if you get less here, then the chances are you will pay less there. Talk of risking losing out heavily - assuming you are in the system and not moving to Chelsea or a sink hole estate in Middlesboro - does not make much sense does it ?

I may be dismissed by the foolish and vindictive poltroons with a grudge, but I am rarely wrong.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was 2018:07:03:16:16:57 by flocker spotter.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by rendelharris 03 July, 2018 16:23

You do realise that "poltroon" means coward? I just ask as you frequently mangle the English language in the giveaway style of the person somewhat lacking in intelligence, choosing the posh-sounding word over one which actually makes sense. Assuming that, in this instance, you've got it right, you really don't see the irony of a sad little keyboard sniper, who does nothing but put others down, hiding behind a username to try to make him/herself feel superior, calling others cowards? I do feel sorry for you - deeply irritating and faux superior as you are, there's clearly a significant lack in your life that you're desperately, transparently and inadequately trying to fill on here. It's awfully sad.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by Abe_froeman 03 July, 2018 16:27

You only really need to find cold hard cash to pay stamp duty the first time you buy. From then on it comes out of the equity you have built up in your home.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by flocker spotter 03 July, 2018 16:43

having an asset that is always assumed to increase in value is quite peculiar - most things do the opposite during their lifetime. But yes, one you are in the system &assuming normal services continues, then price/ value is relative - as difficult as it can be to take this on board.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by James 03 July, 2018 17:03

Thanks RendelHarris, appreciate you putting FS' comments into context smiling smiley

For the record, I do not assume my house will always increase in value. The difficulty is knowing what is a reasonable price to expect in a market like this - given the secrecy around sold prices. Hence my original post.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by JohnL 03 July, 2018 17:13

Abe_froeman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You only really need to find cold hard cash to pay
> stamp duty the first time you buy. From then on it
> comes out of the equity you have built up in your
> home.

Stamp duty for the first time buyer is 0% up to 300K and subsidised up to 500K in London now.

[www.stampdutycalculator.org.uk]

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by Abe_froeman 03 July, 2018 18:16

...and those first time buyers build equity by paying down their mortgage and having had a deposit in the first place. On a 500k property with a 450k mortgage you might expect to have 100k of equity after 5 years assuming no increases in prices.

On a 700k second hiome after five years you would pay out of you 100k of equity £25k of SDLT, £5k for the estate agent (!!) and have 70k left over for your 10% deposit on the second home.

In that scenario you don't need to find any ready money to move up a rung.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was 2018:07:03:18:17:23 by Abe_froeman.

messageRe: Are houses selling around here at all?
Posted by Blackcurrant 03 July, 2018 18:50

JohnL Wrote:
------------------------------
> To fall to realistic levels (I'll say that's 3 x
> average income) would require a society changing
> event

5x average uk income is the mean since the early 1980s, but the UK is currently at 7.5 and London is higher. Over the long term, UK houses always revert to mean price to earnings ratio.

I think we're now looking at mean reversion, following a large bubble. But hopefully slowly via a long period of stagnation caused by slowly rising interest rates.

Expect taxes on property to rise further. The government still has a deficit to plug and property is a gigantic sitting duck.

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