Are houses selling around here at all?

[flocker spotter]

having an asset that is always assumed to increase in value is quite peculiar - most things do the opposite during their lifetime. But yes, one you are in the system &assuming normal services continues, then price/ value is relative - as difficult as it can be to take this on board.

[James]

Thanks RendelHarris, appreciate you putting FS' comments into context :)

For the record, I do not assume my house will always increase in value. The difficulty is knowing what is a reasonable price to expect in a market like this - given the secrecy around sold prices. Hence my original post.

[JohnL]

Abe_froeman Wrote:

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> You only really need to find cold hard cash to pay

> stamp duty the first time you buy. From then on it

> comes out of the equity you have built up in your

> home.

Stamp duty for the first time buyer is 0% up to 300K and subsidised up to 500K in London now.

https://www.stampdutycalculator.org.uk/stamp-duty-first-time-buyers.htm

[Abe_froeman]

...and those first time buyers build equity by paying down their mortgage and having had a deposit in the first place. On a 500k property with a 450k mortgage you might expect to have 100k of equity after 5 years assuming no increases in prices.

On a 700k second hiome after five years you would pay out of you 100k of equity ?25k of SDLT, ?5k for the estate agent (!!) and have 70k left over for your 10% deposit on the second home.

In that scenario you don't need to find any ready money to move up a rung.

[Blackcurrant]

JohnL Wrote:

------------------------------

> To fall to realistic levels (I'll say that's 3 x

> average income) would require a society changing

> event

5x average uk income is the mean since the early 1980s, but the UK is currently at 7.5 and London is higher. Over the long term, UK houses always revert to mean price to earnings ratio.

I think we're now looking at mean reversion, following a large bubble. But hopefully slowly via a long period of stagnation caused by slowly rising interest rates.

Expect taxes on property to rise further. The government still has a deficit to plug and property is a gigantic sitting duck.

[ljrodgers]

My house has been on the market for a year or so (although I took it off last summer for a few weeks). I?ve had 3 ?buyers?. The last one pulled out only after I had found a flat, had an offer accepted on it and commissioned and paid for a survey. It is now on for ?140k than it was 12 months ago. All very frustrating.

[Jim1234]

Would appreciate a bit of advice: if we have a flat locally and are looking to buy a small house or larger flat (perhaps ?700k max budget, assuming our current flat stays approx ?350k), would you wait and see or try to buy?

[Calsug]

Definitely the prices have come off from last year, but houses are selling if they are priced to take this into account.

[rendelharris]

Jim1234 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Would appreciate a bit of advice: if we have a

> flat locally and are looking to buy a small house

> or larger flat (perhaps ?700k max budget, assuming

> our current flat stays approx ?350k), would you

> wait and see or try to buy?

If you're planning to settle down, work out what you can afford to pay in terms of mortgage and go for it. We dallied for ten years in a flat we weren't particularly happy with (our first buy, all we could afford), trying to work out where the market was going etc, before eventually taking the plunge and buying a flat we adore and plan to spend the rest of our lives in (barring lottery wins etc). We have mortgage payments we can (just about!) afford and which will be finished before we retire, so it really doesn't matter a damn to us if it's worth ?100k or ?1M. If you're planning to move on later on the back of profits it might be different, but if you're looking to settle down and find somewhere you love why wait?

[womanofdulwich]

Its usual for the housing market to die between June and early September. People are away - both vendors and sellers, and their minds are on other things.

[JohnL]

womanofdulwich Wrote:

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> Its usual for the housing market to die between

> June and early September. People are away - both

> vendors and sellers, and their minds are on other

> things.

what on earth wou "it's coming home" ld that be :)

[Jules-and-Boo]

this is hardly a seasonal adjustment because people are on holiday

[Mick Mac]

James Wrote:

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given the secrecy around sold

> prices. Hence my original post.

There isnt ultinatley any secrecy. Within a month of the actual transaction, sold prices are freely available.

Althouh the process from "under offer" to completion can of course take some time, if that is what you mean.

[alex_b]

JohnL Wrote:

> It depends how desperate you are to sell. Those

> not desperate probably holding at present if

> they're in your situation I'd think. But you

> can't put your life on hold for ever I suppose.

I think that's what we saw during 2008/9 (certainly in West London where I lived at the time), the only houses that were selling were 'distressed' sales at a significant discount. Those who didn't urgently need to move just waited it out.

The difficulty it for those trying to sell now is lining up a chain of buyers and sellers who all have a similar view of the property market.

[micromacromonkey]

We just exchanged on our house, for 15% less than we almost sold for 18 months ago. That time we had 2 viewings, this time we had over 50.

One lesson you learn is that it is only worth what someone will pay for it, not what you think it is worth. I am reminded of this every time I get a rightmove notification about another 3 bed terrace for 1.2 million quid. You aren't going to get an extra 200 grand just because the walls are tastefully done in Farrow and Ball Mouse's Arsehole grey or whatever it's called.

[dbboy]

Nope but you will dependant on location near transport links, schools, open space and of course depends on what you are offering and the condition of the property.

Some buyers move in and gradually make their changes while others from day one, arrive like a whirlwind and start making changes almost immediately, which actually depends on what your budget is you have for future works, personally I'd say don;t rush, take your time to make up your mind.

[womanofdulwich]

Mick mac. İt's usually 3 months to get sold price? Where do you get it in 1 month please?

[flocker spotter]

People cannot afford to move. Young people cannot afford to buy. It is the buy to let market that pushed prices so high by creating demand over supply. Buy to let is at last becoming less attractive which is a good thing for everyone who cannot afford a home to live in - let alone a second place to rent out.

It is terrible when people have negative equity, but I am not sure that is happening yet. People have very short memories - in the late 1980s/early 90's prices fell by over 25%. Another readjustment is probably happening now - and the younger generations will be greatful.

[Abe_froeman]

The younger generations have never been grateful!

[JohnL]

flocker spotter Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> People cannot afford to move. Young people cannot

> afford to buy. It is the buy to let market that

> pushed prices so high by creating demand over

> supply. Buy to let is at last becoming less

> attractive which is a good thing for everyone who

> cannot afford a home to live in - let alone a

> second place to rent out.

>

> It is terrible when people have negative equity,

> but I am not sure that is happening yet. People

> have very short memories - in the late 1980s/early

> 90's prices fell by over 25%. Another

> readjustment is probably happening now - and the

> younger generations will be greatful.

I'm surrounded by young people - they seem to buy 25% to get their foot in then staircase as fast as they can (I haven't in 10 years being me). Still requires ?50K combined salary though.

I lost 12% the very year after buying in 2008 - and should have increased my share then LOL. Didn't give two hoots at that time - still paid the same.

[JohnL]

The one thing I have noticed about house prices historically.

When they're going up everyone seems to think they'll go up forever and when they're going down everyone seems to think they'll go down forever - then it changes and everyone forgets there previous thinkings.

[Jules-and-Boo]

that's because -they're young and have different priorities, but that's a bit of a generalization.

I bought flats for my kids and I'm glad I did as they won't be able to afford one when they are working.

Just as our parents bought property which now they wouldn't be able to afford either.

[Lu]

I'm trying to sell in New Cross Gate and having the same experience. I'm looking to buy too and properties I viewed three months ago when I put mine up for sale are still on the market.

I thought the problem might be mine is a one-bed flat and the likely buyers are first-time buyers (who can't because they can't get the deposit together) or investors (for whom it's now far less lucrative to do buy to let). You say yours is a house though so maybe it's the whole market in the doldrums...

Good luck!

[Blackcurrant]

JohnL Wrote:

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> The one thing I have noticed about house prices

> historically.

>

> When they're going up everyone seems to think

> they'll go up forever and when they're going down

> everyone seems to think they'll go down forever -

> then it changes and everyone forgets there

> previous thinkings.

And the faster prices shoot up, the more people jump on the bandwagon, worried they'll get left behind.

[stephen509]

It's all relative isn't it?

If you lower yours down by ?100k then the one you buy should be lowered by ?100k.

Nobody loses and you are saddled with less debt.