WorkingMummy

But for HM the Queen scenario planning won't do (and anyhow she's not allowed to do it). She can't have no effective PM (or one who can only mow the lawn) for the next 4 months of crisis. And it is crisis. Constitutional crisis. It is way bigger than the collapse of two political parties. Sturgeon is threatening to veto, (Queenie may have to have a quiet word and say she hasn't that power). And MPs are likely to start debating how to respond to the referendum itself - ie whether to ratify. None of that can happen with a lame duck ex PM in waiting, a vapourised chancellor and no alternative government about to be formed. She can't tell the government what to do but she is going to have to identify who the government currently is. jaywalker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > well, could we not do some scenario planning? > > one possible course (all possibles currently being > a little difficult to get a grip on) is this: > > Tories in limbo next couple of months. > > Corbyn gets vote of no confidence this week. EU > leaders demand article 50 is invoked, UK refuses. > > Corbyn is re-elected by rank and file party > members, but does not have the support of more > than a rump of MPs (about 50 I think). > > Labour splits. Corbyn keeps labour party but > ceases to be leader of HM opposition. > > New centre left party, Umunna as leader if can be > persuaded, otherwise Cooper. New party almost > certainly becomes official opposition (no > elections necessary, MPs can and do just shift > party) and forms new shadow cabinet. Parliament > still has years to run. > > Tory leadership election: MPs give Teresa May big > majority over Boris. But final two candidates must > go to members: Tory members give Boris > overwhelming majority over May. > > Remain Tories refuse to serve under Boris. New > centre-right party formed under May. > > New government under Boris is refused supply by > parliament (or Queen cannot appoint him in first > place knowing no supply). > > EU begin to cancel opt-out privileges negotiated > by UK over past couple of decades. Very large > number of EU workers begin to arrive in UK before > we split. Signs of recession in real GDP become > apparent. Instability on financial markets. First > sign of significant inflation after collapse of > sterling: yet Bank of England feels forced to > print money wholesale to try to prevent recession > and preserve integrity of banking system. > Financial collapse threatens. > > > New govt of national unity formed by > centre-parties (Umunna, May) on condition of > electoral reform (otherwise centre parties, with > majority in parliament, would be swept away at > next general election). Actually of course, tory > party doesn't have to formally split here - the > new government can be non-party based, so Boris > would just be leader of a party and not himself in > government. New government says they will consider > invoking article 50 when the conditions seem > right.... but deteriorating economy makes it clear > that that time is not now. General Election > (possibly only in 2020). > > IF then General Election under new voting rules. > New coalition government announce they have no > immediate plans to invoke article 50 and begin > renegotiating the taken-away privileges. Economy > swiftly recovers if EU not itself in crisis by > then (significant elections there are in 2018). > > ELSE General Election under current rules. Huge > gains for far right in election. Centre MPs > squeezed out by first past the post. Capital > flight, inflation, chaos. > > I fear the worst. The big problem is that the rest > of the EU may start disintegrating. Then it is > Ruritania here we come.

...and Buckingham Palace is going to have to step in. Only question is if she calls a general election or simply appoints a new PM to get on with Brexit. She cannot leave an emasculated Cameron in place until the party conference, his successor (who will run Brexit) to be chosen by the whim of the Tory party. And she cannot leave her government without a rudder until the Autumn, when civil unrest is only one bad turn away.

Louisa Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > We have some breaking news. > > http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-pol > itics-36633244 > > The SNP is considering vetoing the entire > referendum result. > > Louisa. Brava! She is the only sensible candidate PM right now. I want to see what Buckingham Palace will do. Osborne has vapourised. We effectively have no PM. Almost all government has to be put on hold until this is sorted. Who does Liz treat as "her" PM?

LondonMix Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The reason they want to delay triggering Article > 50 is because the two year time frame for exit put > the UK at a negotiating disadvantage. Even during > the campaign this was openly acknowledged. > > What Leave hope to achieve is informal agreement > on trade and other key issues before trigger > Article 50. In total they acknowledge it will > take at least 4 years to put in place the > agreements Britain needs. > > What the EU wants is for Article 50 to be > triggered and to only deal with issues covered by > article 50: citizens rights etc but NOT trade. > They are proposing only negotiating on trade after > the UK is out of the EU. The EU has come out and > explicitly stated they don't want the UK to use > the rights of their citizens living in Britain as > a bargaining chip during trade negotiations and so > they want them to be two completely separate > discussion happening in sequence rather than in > parallel. > > Trigger Article 50 basically guarantees than the > UK will leave the EU without a new trade agreement > unless all 27 countries grant and extension or if > the government adopts the Norway model. Yes but LM what that doesn't factor in (but BJ knows and is just sick about), is that my Auntie Masie and Uncle Stan did not vote for a Norway style settlement. Which means no lower immigration, less control over borders, we enter Schengen, Calais camps move to Dover, no veto on future EU expansion, goodbye Maggie rebate on contributions. They really, really wanted imaginary out out (so we magically carry on with exactly the same economy outside of the EU with no immigration) having no idea what real out-out meant. They heard Gove say, "Norway rocks and it is out!" But that was of course a huge deception by Leave and my dear Aunt and Uncle refused to listen to my sisters and I when we tried to explain this. They couldn't answer any of our points to them. They just started to talk about the German bombing of Coventary and what chocolate bars and bathroom cleaner used to called in 1973. I had exactly the same conversations on this forum (except people here just kept reverting to Control Control while steadfastly refusing to get specific about the chocolate bar naming EU changes they disliked). Boris has no mandate to make us Norway. There is no mandate for any 1) achievable and 2) desirable alternative to our current position.

Yes - I really like that comment, Jah Lush. I am no Tory, but I think the cries of Brexit voters now turning on Cameron and saying, "You never told us it would cost us this!!! It's your fault I voted that way - you weren't clear!" is a irony rich, self-diagnosis of the problem of "the populace". It is classic infantile behaviour. You demand control, make a bad decision, can't handle the consequences and so turn in anger on those who gave you control. Classic self-sabotage of a child. That self-sabotage may be one stage of maturity ahead of my uncles and aunts whose comments on my FB page are to the effect that they are glad they voted out because the EU made us change the name of Marathons to Snickers. But only just. And it is a far, far cry from the level of maturity actually required. Which is not for Regrexiteers to come on social media and rant about how badly misled they were. (Yes Gove is a xxxx and Farage is a tool and Boris is an opportunist. I am happy for your too-late enlightenment but the signs were all there, the warnings clearly issued, WE TOLD YOU. But you dismissed our words, as boring or as conspiracies.) And what is required is certainly not Remain voters petitioning for a second referendum. That request is sterile. Remain already had its say and was outvoted. It is those who are now Regrex who should be mobilising THEMSELVES like GROWN-UPs and publicly voicing: "We made a mistake. Please don't follow that "advice" we formally gave our elected representatives last Thursday." That's all you need to say. You don't need to self-flagulate. It's self-indulgent and annoying. And don't waste your moment of self-empowerment but blaming anyone else; you just infantilise yourself again if you do. Referenda have now been proven to be the bad idea that they always were. (Imagine a referendum next month on bringing back hanging or flogging.) But if Regrex were to stand together and voice those TWO magic sentences (and nothing else, please) then we could all begin to regain our security, our public life, and our dignity in the world. We could also start to talk about the things that really matter. Like saving the NHS, investment of our tax revenues in stimulus and preventing further bad-brain education. (None of which are EU matters, nor ever were.)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-cornwall-issues-plea-for-funding-protection-after-county-overwhelmingly-votes-in-favour-of-a7101311.html

What blah blah said.

P.O.U.S.theWonderCat Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > What Jenny said. What you said has given me more > hope for this country than anything I have heard > in the past couple of days. Absolutely. I whole heartedly agree with Jenny too.

For the umpteenth time, L, clause 50 does tear up the bloody deals. FfS. We will need a trade deal more than they will. But even IF we were of equal size and weight, we have NO VETO. They DO.

That got a little snuffle of a laugh from me on an otherwise somber day. Ta xx

I agree with that too. Only thing I'd say is, EU is not planning to "punish" us, other than, it will have to allow the natural consequences of our decision to flow. It would be playing right into the hands of existing anti EU propoganda to call this punishment or vengeance. Any more that you are punishing a 5 year old who tantrums out of a party by declining to follow her from the room offering sweets. WM x

Also DF - there are already security and passport checks at our borders even for EU entrants. Because of Schengen opt-out. So that is not something you gained by voting out.

Thank you Loz and CS. Really helpful words. We are going to go for citizenship to try to regain the certainty we had last week.

DulwichFox Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I travelled to France... Switzerland.. Italy... > Austria ... Holland... Germany East/West .. > All before the E.E.C. / E.U. existed.. > > There is no indication that myself or anyone else > from the UK will face any restrictions after > leaving. > > There will be a need to show ones Passport and > some security checks but with the current threat > of terrorism across Europe, that's hardly a bad > thing. > > The Paris tragedies were thought to of been > possible due to no travel restrictions between > Belgium and France. > > > > DulwichFox Yes. Europe was never the USSR. Well spotted. You did not have the right to remain and your did not have the right to work. Which mine and so many other local families now depend.

Midivydale -solidarity. I have just started a thread on citizenship. I feel awful even having to ask it of you but would you consider it (please please please don't all leave!) and do you know how hard/easy it is?

Dear Forumites, Right to remain and right to work is obviously a big concern for many families in our area right now. And many people with big emotional and social (not to mention financial) investments in our community do not want to wait 2 years for ??? Boris or someone to sort out what their rights will be at the end of 2018. Does anyone have a reliable rule of thumb guide to applying for citizenship? Chez nous we have a Swedish national who has lived and worked as a member of our family (paying taxes etc etc) for 5.5 years. Her work and importance to our family certainly makes her feel irreplaceable to us. She has (culturally non european) extensive wider family here in London but she is not married and has no children of her own. We also have a Swiss national (so non EU, but bilateral border arrangement) who has lived and worked here for more than 10 years, has British children here, (but is not married and is not cohabiting with a UK citizen or anything like that). The details do not matter too much, but does anyone with expertise have any kind of gauge: easy, guaranteed, hard, not guaranteed? Peoples' lives feel turned upside down and many feel so shunned and insecure. In our household it would be so good to have something solid for us all to look to personally. Slightly ashamed that I do not know the answer to this question. But we never dreamed we would have to answer it when we started our family. WM x

Louisa, staying in the single market and accepting free movement of persons???? Then what the hell is this all about? That is what we already HAD. But we had it WITH a Schengen opt out WITH a fiscal opt-out and WITH a security opt out and WITH a 30% rebate. And now all other EU states have a VETO, not a negotiating position, not a strong hand, not a lever, an absolute VETO on our presence in the EEA and can use that to move us out of all the concessions we fought for over 30 years. You, Louisa, you and 17 million others just gave Romania - to name but one - the same right to VETO our joining (unless we accept Schengen, pay fair share, support Euro bail outs) that we used against the other EU states to ensure our already very special, unique member status. How do you think we got all those concessions for all these years? By using our frogging veto. Which you just GAVE AWAY. I have no words for the imbecility of this rudderless, goal-less, prejudice based movement that yelled for control and now shouts for the status bloody quo!!!!! All this pain, and anguish and division. Is for NOTHING that is good.

Oh for fussake. He is not a horrid man disrespecting the 48%. What are saying? That UK should be treated as ambivalent and another referendum held? He has been handed a decision by the UK voters and he is now acting in the interests of HIS constituency which is now everybody else and not us. Stability demands swiftness from the EUs point of view. It is a divorce. That is what Clause 50 exit is. It is not amicable because half of us don't want it and the EU certainly doesn't want it. It was not a close love marriage anyway because we opted out of Schengen, got a massive rebate on our contributions each year and never joined the Euro. Give the guy a break - every word he says is true. And he is doing what has to be done. Stop lecturing people on respecting democracy (which, btw I do! It does not mean I have to change my mind that this decision is idiotic!!) and blaming the EU for doing what it must now do. See, Brexit is so badly conceived, so ill planned, so rudderless, it is perfectly possible to vote for it, shout about it, clap and cheer, (while, you know, people who it affects immediately weep) and then when it all goes wrong blame everyone else either for not being tough enough negotiators or (in the case of the EU) for not donating us good enough terms.

Lovely. All so lovely.

Lovely.

Just so depressed to read that last post alone.

Ummm, so, unsure how to avoid upsetting already jangled nerves today but, er, obviously "everyone" that "controls" us both here and in Brussels is going to be a bit tied up trying to avoid calamity for the continent for the next two years and so may run out of time to form a new home nation from scratch. BUT I have signed the petition too because it does voice my sense of dislocation and it felt cathartic. And because I hope that a progressive SNP, labour, liberal, green, progressive coalition may actually have some chance of making something not too awful out of this god awful mess. And saying, "Scotland, this is not the UK we feel part of either, we'd rather have independence than this," just seems like the only way to express that today. Plus it may empower the mayor in his bid to have some say in how team Clause 50 (f'in hell) is constituted.

Louisa Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > WorkingMummy of course I have empathy for you and > others who have/will suffer as a result of this > decision. It was never going to be easy, and as I > have conceded multiple times on this forum, we > have a tough few years ahead for everyone and we > cannot underestimate the road ahead. I can only > imagine it is devestating for those directly > affected, but it's early days and we cannot be > sure what will happen so do not lose hope. > > The EU may well try and make brexit difficult, it > may have to prevent a growing backlash in other > countries tempted by the jump ship mentality, who > knows? Either way, we have to make this work. > > In terms of some people being cavalier, I think > you perhaps misinterpret the absolute feeling of > isolation and resentment in the poorest regions of > England. Stakeholders in this EU project, many of > whom have qualified for regional donations to > support deprived communities. They have a great > deal of personal attachment to this vote, some are > below the poverty line and have desperately been > waiting for this day to finally have a voice. So > as much as I respect and appreciate your > predicament, don't underestimate or dismiss the > similar position others have been in for some > years now. > > Louisa. No. As I said earlier in this very thread, I appreciate very well that my own sense of dislocation and isolation of course is what many leave voters have been feeling about "their" country for years. And now I feel it too: that is the pain of divorce for you. But I am not currently on a forum holding my jubilation about my "hot meal" up in the face of their grief. Or talking about their accute anguish as price they must pay for my dream. I empathise with their pain but do not expect them to swallow it for my or my family's comfort. In fact I feel awful today because I have no belief that divorce from the EU or exclusion of immigrants or supposed "control" of immigration is going to make them any richer or better served. I believe that they have cut off our nose to spite our face. Midivydale, your point about how many long standing members of our London community could not vote because of the extraordinarily discriminatory exclusion of resident EU citizens is a very powerful one.

A hot meal elsewhere??? Louisa, hold firm to your beliefs of course by all means. But some empathy for people facing huge personal uncertainty and anguish, and for people genuinely grieving the enforced loss of our membership by a very narrow margin, from Leave, would feel so good. The European family is a public and a personal idea which I support on so many levels. Today is a day of enormous sadness and confusion to those of us with multi national, European families. Leave does mean leave, Louisa. Just like divorce means divorce. Read clause 50. We say go. The EU decides the terms of our exit by a majority vote. We have two years to talk terms but any member state can veto any request by us for more time to agree our exit. Any new deal negotiated has to be reached separately. There is no provision for remarriage on within clause 50. All existing EU states get a right of VETO over any request to rejoin the EEA, let alone as to the terms. I can't help but think that those who are so cavalier about our future now must have very little personal at stake in this awful thing we now face.

Thank you LM. That is nice to hear. He is not my partner but he is a much loved father and co-parent. I have to say our neighbours are being great.