Rook

Hi All, just providing a (hopefully clear) summary on all this... Supreme Court Judge Neuberger delivered a clear and short statement that settles the legal case regarding the involvement of the parliament. By a majority of 8 to 3, the Supreme Court ruled that an ?Act of Parliament is required to authorise ministers to give notice of the decision of the UK to withdraw from the European Union?. Regarding the devolution issues, the view of the majority of justices is that ?the devolved legislatures do not have a veto on the UK?s decision to withdraw from the EU?, cutting short the possibility that a devolved administration could veto Brexit. This means there is no chance for example that Scotland could block the triggering of Article 50 which would have been a huge thorn in the side of the government and would likely have delayed their timetable for Brexit. Overall, the ruling turned out to be a non-event for markets. After the clear ruling by the High Court last year requiring the involvement of parliament, it was widely expected that the Supreme Court would uphold that judgment. Furthermore, removing scenarios involving devolved parliaments seems to be a balanced outcome as it delivers market-positive (clarity) among currently market-negative (Brexit) content. Speaking after the ruling, David Davis, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, said that the government will seek to submit relevant legislation ?within days?. He added that the government will aim for the bill to be ?as straightforward as possible?, suggesting that he is planning to submit a short single-clause ?Article 50? bill in parliament. The sole purpose of the bill would be to comply with the Supreme Court ruling and ask parliament to grant the government the authority to trigger Article 50. The bill would follow the usual ?5-steps? (first reading, second reading, committee stage, report stage, third reading) as well as travel through both chambers, go through the so-called amendment phase (iteration between both chambers) before qualifying for Royal Assent. Parliament will also be in recess between 9-20 February. It is now widely accepted that parliament will not stand in the way and allow the government to respect its March deadline. For that to happen before its self-imposed March deadline, the government has cleared parliament?s agenda and under a best-case ?fast track? scenario, could get Royal Assent (the last stage of the legal process) by mid-March. While the reluctance of some MPs to support such a three-line bill without concessions or amendments by the opposition might delay the process, MPs have not expressed their collective intention to block Brexit. Hence, this whole power struggle between government and parliament will not derail the withdrawal process and Brexit remains the widely held working assumption, and to the governments previously stated timetable. Just FYI - along the way, other court cases might lead to some headlines: in early February, the High Court is expected to rule regarding Article 127 (does leaving EU automatically mean leaving the European Economic Area?), while in Ireland, a case has been brought to the High Court in Dublin and could find its way up to the European Court of Justice (is Article 50 reversible?). None of these two cases, however, has the teeth to block the first stage of withdrawal, which is the triggering of Article 50.

Hi All Loads going on (some of it good!)but heres an update on France which I think could present outcomes that will be pivotal to either the survival of the EU project or the herald a brave new dawn Following Donald Trump?s surprise election, the market?s focus has def shifted back to Europe, given its crowded political agenda. France finds itself in the spotlight based on the fact that both executive and legislative powers are up for grabs between mid-April and mid-June 2017, and that the political landscape is significantly fragmented with the more extreme parties attracting material levels of support. Overlay on this the fact that France is the second-largest euro area economy, and jointly with Germany has significant decision-making power over the future of the euro area/Europe, and it is clear to see how material the outcome of the French elections will be to the wider political and economic outlook. Although the election of Mr Fillon (status quo) as The Republicans? candidate for the first round of the Presidential election has significantly reduced uncertainty, the potential outcomes of the election nonetheless remain numerous given : 1) the socialist primary candidates are not yet fully known (Prime Minister Valls has resigned and declared his intention to run, after President Hollande announced he would not run); 2) significant divergences have emerged from within mainstream parties; and 3) similar to other European countries, there is a growing fragmentation/polarisation of the French political landscape, including strong support expressed for the parties at the extremes Currently, all polls that have come out since the election of Mr Fillon however have predicted that he would qualify for the second round and win against Le Pen in the run off by a significant (c.35-40pp) margin . In this instance, a referendum on EU/euro membership is unlikely to be called as long as a pro-European President and Government/Parliament are in place. Furthermore, it is worth highlighting that polls (eurobarometer) have consistently pointed toward a majority of the population being in favour of remaining in the EU/euro area, although according to the latest YouGov survey (29 November 2016) shows the margin has narrowed So what is the risk? Most recent polls show Marine Le Pen looks likely to reach the second round regardless of the different permutations of other candidates, and it cannot be ignored that she scored very strongly..so there is always a risk of a surprise vs the poll predictions (sound familiar?)! Although it is yet to be fully specified in the 2017 election party manifesto, it is widely assumed that Front national (Marine Le Pen) is running on a platform that looks to remove France from both the European Union and the euro area. Her rival party Front de Gauche ( Jean-Luc M?lenchon), on the other hand, is closer to promoting an institutional change than an outright exit- although even that will fill the EU hierarchy with dread. In this ?unlikely? scenario, however it means that Marine le Pen?s party would have to achieve an extremely strong result at the general elections (it currently holds two seats). A survey in June 2016 by the OpinionWay institute has found that the Front National could win up to 60 seats, which would fall well short of the required 120 seat threshold. There is a possible risk scenario however that Front National and Front De Gauche parties will then decide to form a coalition as they are not too dissimilar, at least as far as the economy is concerned. This does mean that markets are cogniscant that the likelihood of a referendum ? via a popular initiative ? on an EU/euro membership has increased The stances of M?lenchon or Le Pen could also pose risks to the future of Europe, in that France would diverge further from Germany both in terms of domestic policies (fiscal policy, role of the government, wage increases) and its agenda for Europe. The current relationship is seen as strained and the last thing the EU needs is for the ?two pillars? of the Union to dislocate further from an agreed policy outlook. Even though currently markets do not expect French citizens (as per recent polls) to ultimately vote to withdraw from the EU or the EA, a strong showing by Le Pen or Melenchon would undoubtedly further increase disintegration risk of the EU project. In summary, Polls say le Pen wont win and not by a significant margin, but if she does (outright or by coalition), then expect a term like Frexit (or something more creative) to enter mainstream discussions

excellent post Robbin

Hello all - its me again ! groan......:-) Sorry its been a while, but Ive been overseas. Thought Id pop back on and give another update. Oh come on you all love arguing about this.. Id be happy to give broad economic update since the vote (data much much better than expected) but i see inflation is all over the news today so lets start there, as the data seems to have awoken a few anti-brexit negative ninnies from their 6 week slumber (dont bite! ;-) As ever Ill try to concentrate on facts.... the data... Basically UK headline CPI has surprised to the upside compared with consensus forecasts for September. The upward surprise was broad-based. The most notable upward inflation contribution came from clothing and footwear, which printed at +5.2% m/m and was alone responsible for almost +0.2pp of the increase in the y/y headline CPI rate. According to the ONS, this increase was driven by women?s outerwear in particular. Elsewhere, there were more modest upward surprises to alcohol and tobacco and other core goods; and despite the recent media focus on supermarket prices, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices DECREASED by 0.1% m/m . Downside surprises came primarily from core services, particularly air fares, communications and recreation and culture. Generally I would exercise caution at this stage in extrapolating too much on inflationary trends in the UK based on one print, particularly given that the clothing and footwear component can be notoriously erratic over the short term. Additionally, while GBP depreciation may have bolstered clothing prices, there was actually a sustained fall in clothing prices between March and July and price increases in August were modest at best. Therefore, at the headline level, the emergent picture is one of increasing core goods inflation pressure driven by weakening services inflation. However, it also appears that the September print has been influenced by erratic timing factors (for example in atypical seasonal patterns in hotel room price moves). As ever then, I would recommend paying close attention to the individual component drivers of inflation rather than reading too much into moves in the aggregate measure. There are some relatively useful articles on the BBC website re inflation ("Inflation not due to Sterling yet" and "Who wins from inflation").

Hey Lordship Todays fall in Cable was mainly due to USD strength, which hit a multi month high against a basket of currencies. This was on the back of data showing US housing starts surged 4.8%. Along with the latest strong US jobs report which was way above consensus, this has reignited investor sentiment of a stronger US economy and yield appeal. The move higher in Cable yesterday was on back of MPC member comments and Softbank deal - but I think today shows traders will use any excuse to sell higher moves in GBP in face of upcoming UK data, which as mentioned previously is likely to be adverse, and also widely expected to be accompanied by a rate cut. Market sentiment is still very negative for GBP, even in face of inflation numbers at 0.5%, and I expect that to remain the case during this period of adjustment/uncertainty Given these factors, i do think that GBP will likely go another leg lower (also as mentioned previously) ...most likely when we get those first full "post brexit" data reports in early August Many media outlets seem to now be reporting on GBP every day eg "GBP rises 1%, GBP drops 1.3% etc". I believe thats a pretty pointless endeavour given the current situation. Id be very surprised if we dont see 1.25 in Cable and that also seems to be consensus where I work/ the street

The Softbank deal is good news if you are worried that due to Brexit the UK will no longer be a good place to invest in or do business / would lose its standing for trade, commerce and or financial services. Maybe the title of the thread should be "the economy-post referendum" Its a different argument entirely if you look at it from the viewpoint that the UK is selling itself off to foreign ownership. Well, the truth is thats been happening for many years - property and industry

Also great news on BBC site who report that Wells Fargo (one of biggest banks in US) have just purchased a large office block in the City. Looks like they believe in future of London as remaining key to financial services across Europe Great to see some real events coming through with M&A and investment into UK to counter some of the overwhelmingly negative rhetoric/headlines weve seen recently

Agreed ??? Interestingly GBP got a jolt higher today as MPC member Weale has just made some pretty positive comments about future policy (or should I say far less negative). This is in direct contradiction to comments by MPC member Andy Haldane late last week which pushed GBP lower and got very widely reported on / jumped on I noticed that not one media outlet explained that Haldane is a known "dove" / negative on economy and has been callign for a cut for 2 years. All views welcome but balance is very important - otherwise the knock on effect is that you the start to see and hear lots of views cultivated purely on the back on only negativity which I do think affects sentiment. I almost think the Guardian in particular is purposely misleading and guilty of this. I cant look at it. Maybe it sells more papers or gets more click throughs. If it helps, I do believe that we will see a shallow recession in the UK to reflect the adjustment period/pullback but the fact is that markets are nowhere near armageddon.

Hi Henry The UK has been running a large current account deficit since the mid 80s, and I see you got some recent stats above Worth mentioning that there are various components to the deficit, but in a nutshell- the UK imports more than it exports, and pays more abroad in terms of coupons, dividends and wages than it receives. As Mark Carney himself put it, we have to rely on ?the kindness of strangers? to help plug this gap via foreign investment flows into the UK. Perversely, I would expect the deficit to actually narrow in a lower growth environment, as by virtue of this the UK will be simply paying less overseas, and the widely expected reduction in consumer spending should add to this. On the other side of the coin, given the referendum outcome, the real concern at the moment is that the crucial foreign investment into the UK will fall away with the uncertainty pre Brexit negotiation. Where currency fits in is that it acts almost like a pressure value in the face of this uncertainty as it gets driven lower.If the current account gets too large, there should be a depreciation in the exchange rate to restore the balance. I share the argument that a current account deficit is a bigger concern in a fixed exchange rate (like Euro) because there is no option of depreciation If capital / financial flows dry up, it could of course lead to further depreciation in the exchange rate with the key risk being a fall in living standards pushing up inflation and pass through costs to UK households Some also argue that a large deficit is also a sign of an "unbalanced economy". Osborne tried to mitigate this with his ?march of the makers? rallying cry in which he promised to increase UK exports, but alas exports from the UK actually dropped. realistically though, in era of globalisation, financial flows are easier to attract and therefore as the UK is no manufacturing powerhouse, it makes sense that that the deficit is financed as much as possible by these capital inflows. Also, for balance, countries with large current account surplus have not necessarily done better, e.g. Japan had a long period of stagnation, and the US is in a good place More generally, Id say that any large scale investment in the UK is really good news as it suggests British assets (and therefore investment into the UK) is still seen as a good bet. Good news here i see today is that Softbank has bid 24.3bn for ARM Holdings (which is 3 months of the UKs current account deficit in one swoop).

Hi all No change then, but minutes from the meeting were relatively cautious compared with market expectations, focusing on rising uncertainty and a marked decline in firm and household sentiment. (Remember that its sentiment that changes behaviours, and its behaviours that change markets) Committee members also focused on surveys not typically considered, given that only in mid-August will actual economic data reflect the post-referendum impact while it is late July for typically monitored surveys (CBI, PMI, etc.). 3 main things in the minutes to the meeting worth noting: INVESTMENT = On the back of the ad-hoc Institute of Directors survey, as well as the latest Deloitte CFO survey, it appeared very likely that business investment was to decline markedly. This was corroborated by approximately one third of the Bank of England Agents responding in a similar fashion, as well as by the Lloyds Business Barometer, where confidence fell to its lowest level since the Eurozone crisis. Equally, on the back of the June RICS survey, Bank staff had significantly revised down their forecast for housing investment. CONSUMPTION= The Committee noted that, while the special post-referendum GfK survey on consumer confidence showed a marked decline on the back of a pessimistic economic outlook, payment systems data had not shown any material decline. As such, the Committee claimed that household consumption could slow once broader economic weakness manifests itself in the labour market. The Committee did comment, however, that as a result of the June RICS survey, it had revised down the near-term outlook for house prices, which was expected to act as a gradual drag on household consumption. LABOUR MARKET= The latest REC Report on Jobs had indicated a marked fall in permanent staff placements in the run-up to the referendum, although Bank of England Agents had indicated that pre-referendum they planned to scale back recruitment plans anyway, which would be consistent with a general expectation that the unemployment rate will rise. The market now definitely expecting a rate cut in August - but I personally think they will use a range a tools at their disposal. More generally I would say that using the consumer confidence surveys as a benchmark the hard data will likely be adverse, so expect more market movement over next couple of months (most likely pound another leg lower again etc) Cheers

Hi all - quick update for ya Markets pricing in a 70 per cent (ish) chance that the Bank of England cuts interest rates tomorrow by 25bps. There is a chance of course that they hold off until August to coincide with when the bank will be producing a "full economic assessment" of the impact of the EU referendum,together with its inflation report. For those interested, the Financial planning Committee has identified 5 key areas it is monitoring following the result of the referendum, which Ive listed below. For those that aren't interested, your mortgage might just be about to become a bit cheaper from tomorrow (or August) but any savings will take another hit. The 5 key areas being monitored are.... Current Account: Even though the Bank believes the economy is more resilient than during the 2008-2009 crisis, further spikes in uncertainty could deter foreign investment and exert downward pressure on GBP and as well as funding conditions for UK borrowers. Its important to note that Britain runs a current account deficit pegged around 7 percent of GDP which is amongst highest in developed world. This certainly makes the pound vulnerable in medium term to changes in foreign capital flows needed to plug the gap. ? Commercial Real Estate (CRE): While the slowdown in the real estate market was already apparent before the referendum, further stress may trigger disruptions and amplify the required adjustment in prices. With half the investors from overseas, this sector is also particularly exposed to country shocks as we are currently experiencing given the referendum outcome. ? Household Indebtedness: According to the FPC, the ability of some households to service their debt would be challenged by a weaker period of employment and/or income growth. As a result, households could retreat and increase their savings ratio. Lower interest rates, if decided by the MPC, would help households maintain their spending patterns. ?Subdued Global Outlook: According to the FPC, the likely prolonged period of uncertainty as a result of the EU referendum will adversely impact the global outlook as there is an increase in risk aversion, but with the euro area hit particularly hard. ? Fragilities in financial market functioning: These could be tested during a period of elevated market activity and volatility. In particular, financing of banks and corporates, or disruption such as the withdrawal suspension announced last week by some open-ended commercial real estate funds, need close monitoring to avoid threat of knock on effects. Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was july 15, 08:47am by Rook.

While the You Gov poll released on 5 July in The Times had put Theresa May comfortably ahead of Leadsom, a ConservativeHome survey, published on 4 July, put Andrea Leadsom marginally in front Since then, support for Andrea Leadsom appears to have gained momentum (according to the website ConservativeHome), and a membership rally took place in her favour in Parliament Square yesterday. However, Im sure youve seen Leadsom has also come under increasing scrutiny of her background and CV, with some former colleagues rebuking career claims she has made, according to The Guardian. While this may deter some members from voting for her, it could equally be seen by some as tactics to call into question her reputation, and therefore in fact strengthen membership support for her. More importantly, given the grassroots members are typically regarded as very eurosceptic, and have historically chosen the most eurosceptic candidate on the ballot, it would therefore not be surprising to see Theresa May emphasise her eurosceptic credentials over the upcoming campaign period to garner support among a group of people who could otherwise be expected to opt for the more eurosceptic Andrea Leadsom based purely on precedence

Shaunag there is no perfect answer Im afraid when it comes to the relative value of GBP. There are always people on either side of the market. If its expensive for importers/ its cheap for exporters etc Id also argue that MOST expats living in the EU are actually paid in the home currency of EUR. This is about majority benefits/disadvantages rather than individual.

Well for me re the pound - its CAN look bad but it isnt always. For example, exporters are enjoying current levels as it makes their product pricing far more competitive. Also many countries have always looked to weaken their currency to attract inward investment. This was known as a "race to the bottom" in currency markets when all central banks were beign especially dovish during the recession as they were all fighting to attract trade -mainly by cuttign interest rates which always weakens a currency . Therefore ist important to note that the pound being "weak" doesnt suggest its always bad news and a drain on the economy, but I appreciate headlines such as "31 year low" look terrifying. Alternatively, it can in fact be a boon to the economy and either way- with perspective- you can see that some of that immediate alarm is unneccessary. To be fair, with a weaker GBP yes products might become more expensive for those on the other side who are importing products which in turn may have a knock on effect to consumers, but this is ONLY if the pound stays at these levels. Even then, with any negative effects of a weaker GBP you wouldnt see the effects until the end of the year at the earliest and only then if Retailers for example choose to pass on costs (or need to!). Many of my clients (high st names) have said they can negotiate a revision to pricing with a marked move in currency ,this is typically built into contracts to avoid this exact situation- as they all want to avoid invoking price rises (its bad for business!) The main drivers of currency markets are also investment flows, so of course GBP would weaken because investors - as of now- have no idea what the lie of the land will be ...they dont know what they are investing in so seek short term returns elsewhere even if they are punitive! This is why you see volatility - because as news filters through suggestign progress, investors who have parked funds in safe havens such JPY or CHF reverse that position and buy back into the pound. Long term gilt yields suggest clearly that there is clear confidence in the long term prospects of the UK economy (priced with minimscule risk). Our banks are well capitalised and right now there is no financial crisis- but a political one. In summary, Investors have sold out of GBP because of uncertainty of policy (get on with it government please!) and the markets have priced in a very very high chance that there will be at least one rate cut (probably will be cut to zero). Just like you and savings account, why park your money in an account that will offer nil return in short term or hasnt told you yet what the benefits are. If Im honest this rate cut will affect the pockets of consumers as itll make things cheaper re mortgages etc- but usign the same balanced argument I dont really see that as a victory as such (although Im sure good news for many) - but instead as a temporary result of a necessary action to see us through this uncertain period. I think we will see a shallow recession due to this, but a temporary one (the uncertainty wont last forever, they HAVE to get on with it) Re UK Commercial property, well its being affected due to same uncertainty. Investors will hold back or pull out because the level of business investment is bound to drop durign this period. Most funds hold good cash reserves but its a sensible measure given these open ended funds can be "called" immediately and they fear a "run". These schemes are not ideal because calling cash out which is 'liquid' but is invested in non liquid assets such as property creates a clear disconnect which creates a worry that these funds will be forced to sell property at way below real market values just to meet the calls, which then causes them to fold and might have knock on effects etc etc. This is why all stocks associated with housign are down. These funds are very well cash covered and the move is a sensible one - it avoids panic which is poison to markets. More geenrally these funds attract huge investment because?...property is a no brainer in London and makes a killing, Im talking huge returns as Im sure you can imagine. Investors "leavign in droves" actually means all those investors who up to now have been on a very nice gravy train thankyou. Its a popular investment and so therefore potentially has a crucial knock on effect in the UK economy as its popularity has grown so much. Again, therefore sensible to kill any panic by mitigating any run (although the news itself might cause panic - they cant win!) Ill bet my own house on it thats its short lived. Investment will flow back to the UK. Finally- why will they do it quickly? exactly for the reasons above, and the knock on effects into Europe and globally- ...because they have to. The UK economy is intrinsic to the efficient functioning of global markets and its in everyones best interest to deal with the UK on the most efficient basis. We have a deep liquid markets, are key to the financial heartbeat of the global economy and there is will to deal AND invest. Again they just need to get on with it Sorry for length of this, but Im finding a good debate is better than a mundane train journey!!

No Im not saying it means we will definitely be fine, Im arguing that it doesnt mean we definitely WONT be fine -which is clearly the suggestion/expectation/conclusion already made by Remainers who are posting the kind of content I responded to. Thats my point. That shouldnt stick in your craw, as we are in agreement re not knowing yet. Maybe it means some are just more positive than others, or understand it better ( which i think shows evidence of being true of both sides)

What lies are you referring to? That they would spend 350m on the NHS? I didnt believe that I also didnt believe from the Remain camp that it would be impossible to strike a new trade deal, that there would have to be an emergency budget , that interest rates would immediately go up, or that we would be ostracised from Europe, or that everyone would fry alive etc etc There seems to be a curious expectation that many who voted leave are now certain to be head in hands, crying at their stupidity. Ummmm no, not here or with many others I know (yes educated professionals too!) Maybe you are all spending too much time laughing at silly memes on facebook. You do know that Facebook is not exactly a true reflection of fact or understanding ? Thats certainly my view given the stuff Ive seen on there - way wide of the mark. What made me laugh was comments like "I cant believe Farage is in Brussels now" (17 years now is it?) OR "They are all resigning they dont know what they are doing" (when Boris didnt resign he withdrew from nomination as he didnt have enough backing for nomination -and Farage was not official part of Leave campaign, is not an MP, and so was never going to be part of Government anyway). Markets are reflecting uncertainty yes but i think this is normal no? Im telling you it is as I work within them. Im very much looking forward to the negotiations getting started. Brexit hasnt happened yet. Have a nice day!

Eughh- ANOTHER thread related to the Referendum!!. yes yes I know (sorry), but for those interested here is a factual update in terms of the early ballot results for a new leader and - just for clarity - their stated intial outlook on some of the key issues BALLOTING HAS BEGUN, AND ONLY 3 CANDIDATES REMAIN STANDING= Basic update first : Theresa May came out top in the first ballot among Conservative Party MPs to find Cameron?s successor, as was widely expected, with support from 165 MPs. Andrea Leadsom was in second place with the support of 66 MPs, despite previously being seen as an outsider in the race. Michael Gove, previously seen as second favourite, came in third place with the support of 48 MPs. Liam Fox came in last, with the support of only 16 MPs, and has been eliminated from the race, while Stephen Crabb, attracting 34 backers and coming fourth, decided to withdraw. Although both Liam Fox and Stephen Crabb have thrown their backing behind Theresa May, it is yet to be seen whether their respective supporters will follow their lead. In particular, while the policy stance of Stephen Crabb was more akin to Theresa May?s, Liam Fox?s policy stance was more akin to Andrea Leadsom?s, so it seems likely that some of his backers could support her instead. The next and final ballot will be held on Thursday 7 July before the final two candidates are put forward to the 150,000 Conservative Party members. SUPPORT AMONG CONSERVATIVE PARTY MEMBERS HAS CLEARLY CENTRED ON THE TWO FEMALE CANDIDATES A ConservativeHome survey, published 4 July, puts Andrea Leadsom marginally in front at 38%, with Theresa May just behind at 37%, and the remaining male candidates all below 15%. A YouGov poll released 5 July in The Times, meanwhile, puts Theresa May comfortably ahead of Leadsom were they to both face each other in the grassroots membership ballot (May: 63%; Leadsom: 32%; Undecided: 5%). If either female candidate were to face Michael Gove in the membership ballot however, the female candidate would comfortably win ALL REMAINING CANDIDATES HAVE COMMITTED TO ENDING THE FREE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE This is at odds with gaining access to the European single market given EU27 leaders? comments of late. However, Andrea Leadsom who is gaining popularity among the grassroots membership, has stated that she is less concerned about the UK gaining access to the single market, while Michael Gove wishes to end EU budgetary contributions, suggesting he too is less concerned about access; as non-EU member states are still required to provide budgetary contributions to access the European single market. Even though Theresa May has committed to maintaining free trade of goods and services between the UK and the EU, she has stated that ending the free movement of people is ?non-negotiable?. Moreover, May has refused to guarantee rights of EU citizens in the UK unless EU counterparts commit to guaranteeing rights of UK citizens in the EU. The other candidates, however, have unconditionally guaranteed the rights of EU citizens already living in the UK. Conditional on EU27 leaders and Conservative Party leadership candidates not giving way with regard to free movement of people in order to access the European single market, then it appears that an EEA-style agreement is seemingly less and less likely. THE TIMING OF WHEN TO TRIGGER ARTICLE 50 REMAINS IN CONTENTION Theresa May does not believe it should be invoked until the UK is sure of its negotiating position with the EU, and hence does believe it will be invoked before the end of this year. Andrea Leadsom, however, believes the process should be as short as possible, and has committed to invoking it as soon she becomes PM (i.e., September). The position of Leadsom would likely cause the least tension among EU27 leaders who seem to wish for the UK to not unnecessarily delay in triggering Article 50 and beginning the negotiation process TIMING OF ARTICLE50= Tmay= Not before the end of this year ALeadsom= As soon as she becomes PM (ie Sep 16) MGove= No later than the end of this year POLICY POSITIONS OF THE REMAINING CANDIDATES - All candidates have stated a committment to exit the European union - None of the candidates are in favour of another referendum or snap general election - As above, all candidates have expressed a committment to end free movement of people - FISCAL STANCE= =TMay has pledged to end the gov committment to a fiscal surplus by end of parliament, and intends to avoid any tax rises. =ALeadsom has committed to reducing the gov deficit, and pledged that the focus of any tax cuts will be on the poorest in society =MGove will not contribute to the EU budget, instead allowing the UK to spend the proceeds -NEGOTIATING STRATEGY= =TMay wants to end free movement of people, maintain tariff free trade between UK and EU, will not guarantee rights of EU citizens in the UK unless the rights of UK citizens in the EU are guaranteed, and will create a new department to deal with exiting the EU and focusssing on trade negotiations =ALeadsom wants to end free movement of people, is not concerned about access to EEA, insists we push for Northern powerhouse project, pledged to focus on poorest in society, will guarantee rights of UK and EU citizens, will use some of EU budgetary contribution in NHS, and also promises a simpler tax system. =MGove wants to end free movement of people and introduce an australian style points system for immigration and bring numbers down Right thats it. Id like to sincerely congratulate you if you made it this far

I thought id get a bit of gentle relief* from the referendum threads and came in here to have a look.....and Quids and Rendel are goung at each other on here too!!! Made me laugh. Youd probably be best mates if you met in the pub.... *stop it

Ah hello Louisa! Im not sure that arguing that markets are now reflecting uncertainty post vote (and pre negotiation, pre brexit) are grounds for anyone to claim that someone is "wrong". I would have thought this market reaction was widely expected? Not helped by the government playing politics with the decision when they should be getting on with it mind you..

Lordship wrote: "Yes, as they will need to source an alternative source of supply & they will factor in the future issue of tariffs in their pricing Models as well as the increased customs issues. This will lead them towards hedging their bets, not totally cutting UK supply off but taking product from elsewhere also - this also puts price pressure on the UK supplier" Lordship I work with large multinationals and many clients within the EU who currently deal with the UK and none of them have even hinted at this. It doesnt make sense on an economic or practical basis. Where did you get it from pls or are you just musing? Thanks

Wow there is so much hysteria at the moment- please everyone calm down I find it especially curious that those who are suddenly preaching love and tolerance are displaying anything but! I think the media (and Facebook) have a lot to answer for. I think if they spent half as much effort educating as they do stirring (The Guardian, Telegraph, Daily Mail) and misleading then we'd all be kind of on the same page Back on topic, and just for BALANCE....there has been no "Brexodus" really has there... Boris Johnson WANTED the job - he didnt resign from anything, he withdrew from the leadership contest because of the effect of all the internal politicking and the fact he knew he didnt have enough backers for nomination. Clearly the PM and his cronies wanted "anyone but Boris" and Gove was a snake and went for personal gain to take advantage of this. Nigel farage DID resign, but HE WASNT AN MP. He wasnt a part of the official Leave campaign and was never going to be part of a new Government. In many respects you blame the current government for dragging us through all this period of protracted uncertainty as they are clearly playing politics with the decision when they should be getting on with it Lets avoid the abuse and try and think things through rather than simply reacting angrily without doing so. There is real risk of a self fulfilling prophecy filtering itno the wider economy with all this hysteria. maybe a few on here should avoid the afore mentioned newspapers and try to seek a calm, balanced look at the situation via another source We all want the best for the country and each other

"So you admit we just voted away stability for an 'unknown quantity'? You admit we had no idea what was going to happen? That's a big chance to take given that no one had a plan. I disagree strongly with the idea that the Leave campaign didn't need to have some kind of strategy - they wanted it, they should've been ready for it. " = Its a fact that its an unknown quantity because its a new future. (crap analogy warning....)= You might decide to trade in your partner for a better model. Lets say you are a fresh singleton from today. Much of your new relationship, and what its like will depend on your relative attractiveness and if you are out there actual meeting people and er, talking (!) Sitting in your bedroom crying will get you nowhere, and breed negativity. It doesnt mean you wont enter a fantastic relationship (or that you are due a terrible one)and its the same for the UK. The plan was to "get out there" immediately but given internal politics (from the Remain camp!) that has been pushed back to Sep time. Political uncertainty is the current drag! "And somehow people think we will automatically get trade agreements within two years?" = We just dont know. There is so much sense in striking a good deal for the UK (with Germany for instance given we are a huge market for them). Much of the speed will probably be driven more by politics than anything else. Disintegration risk in the EU is high so they want to deter others, but dont want to cut off their nose to spite their face. Theoretically we could strike deals quickly IF we accepted free flow of people, but this seems very unlikely given immigration was such a huge issue during the referendum. Operating under WTO rules with special dispensation is also an option. This is all why a delay to invoking article 50 looks likely. The powers that be want to "sound out" trade deals to get the vital elements agreed prior to official exit. Even Teresa may said of course the EU will need to accept tariff free terms for the UK. Many think they will have to! "Are you so sure we won't have just replaced them with home-grown power crazy loonies?" = Yeah we probably have! In my mind this whole thing has been around choosing the lesser of 2 evils and the same goes for politicians. Has there ever been one the public has truly loved though!

I think he was referring to the drag on the political uncertainty given leadership elections etc. The plan was to get on with it and negotiate asap. He is recognising the damage a delay to this has on the UK and the EU (and globally). We dont know the outcome yet as negaotitations havent started. Brexit hasnt happened yet. Its just this uncertainty which affects everything. In short, markets are reflecting huge political uncertainty at the moment, and not an economic crisis.There is a big difference. As for your airplane analogy. yes thats one way of looking at it but Im not sure it helps with any understanding. You could apply the same logic to those who wanted to remain by saying its like being in a relationship with someone you didnt really like but being scared to leave because you were worried youll never find anyone else! It was a very negative campaign for remain and contained lots of lies too. Both sides had cringeful aspects. What are the half formed ideas about what happens next that you refer to? negotiations havent even started yet and cant while the Conservatives continue to play politics with the decision

Amen to The Cat!

Exactly. Its served us very well as globalisation has taken hold but its not fit for purpose anymore. The reality of this is there to see. Your opinion is clearly that it is however so fair enough