Rook

Root I dont have an issue with the concept of renewable energy or better working rights but I do have an issue of paying for these directives on an ongoing basis when they are a net drag on the UK economy (especially when soem of them were on proviso for things that didnt even materialise). My whole argument is not to cancel everything and sit there draped in a Union Jack - my argument is that there is a better way to operate with our European friends...that doesnt mean screwing everyone else, or beign racist etc(!) it means beign at the forefront of alot of this (we were anyway) and being sensible about the key issues and how we control and tackle them directly. I dont think there is a price for freedom and democracy (so much chat around trade deal tariffs) but Im just showing that you should see both sides of the economic argument - even more so when you dont even know if we can agree new trade deals which I personally am very sure we can. What we do know now is that the EU experiment is not working. Look at the respective economies and unrest. Everyone conveniently overlooks those facts which again I think is because it seems alot of those who want to remain are voting on Idealogy as opposed to reality (or fear of unknown). You wouldnt vote to Join the EU in its present state surely?

Hi Root- sure - for starters, please can I defer to an article from Open Europe.. Top 100 EU rules cost Britain ?33.3bn.. Open Europe estimates that the top 100 EU regulations cost the UK economy ?33.3bn annually (2014 prices). Source: Open Europe, UK Government, Financial Conduct Authority Based on an analysis of UK Government Impact Assessments (IAs), Open Europe estimates that the cost of the 100 most burdensome EU-derived regulations to the UK economy stands at ?33.3bn a year in 2014 prices. This is more than the ?27bn the UK Treasury expects to raise in revenue from Council Tax in the current (2014-15) financial year. The top five costliest EU-derived regulations in force in the UK: 1) The UK Renewable Energy Strategy ? Recurring cost: ?4.7bn a year 2) The CRD IV package ? Recurring cost: ?4.6bn a year 3) The Working Time Directive ? Recurring cost: ?4.2bn a year 4) The EU Climate and Energy Package ? Recurring cost: ?3.4bn a year 5) The Temporary Agency Workers Directive ? Recurring cost: ?2.1bn a year According to the IAs, these regulations also provide a total benefit of ?58.6bn a year. However, ?46bn of this benefit stems from just three items, which are vastly over-stated. For example, the stated benefit of the EU?s climate targets (?20.8bn) was dependent on a global deal to reduce carbon emissions that was never struck. In fact, Open Europe estimates that up to 95% of the benefits envisaged in the impact assessment have failed to materialise. Taking the regulations individually, the impact assessments show that Ministers signed off at least 26 of the top 100 EU-derived regulations, despite the IAs explicitly stating that the costs outweigh the estimated benefits. These regulations include the UK Temporary Agency Workers Directive and the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive. A further 31 of the costliest EU-derived regulations have not been quantified. Between the over-stated benefits, the regulations that come with a net cost and the ones with unquantified benefits, it remains unclear how many of these EU-derived rules actually come with a net benefit in reality, showing that there is plenty of scope to cut regulatory cost to businesses and the public sector.

A national government overruling a local council in the same country is democratic An institution making laws and decisions imposed on a country that has not voted for those laws or has no ability to vote against them, is not

@ Rendelharris, who said ... "despite the myth that we are governed by an elite of EU civil servants, they are answerable to the European Parliament and we vote for them. You might not want to share democracy with Europe, fair enough, but if we vote for the parliament that governs Europe then that is democratic." Well.. On a practical level we have clear evidence of the negative effect the EU has on the interests of the UK, in terms of policy and our ability to veto it - and indeed therefore in democracy itself. Before the referendum was called David Cameron promised sweeping reforms on the key issues that he acknowledged were key to the people of the UK. You cannot deny that that he largely failed to do this and the net result was a set of watered down solutions (and he was probably only given that under the threat of the referendum risk on the EU). This is a fact, not open to spin or special rose tinted EU glasses. So you have a situation where people in the UK want (and vote, and elect) a government on the key issues, only for the EU to veto or overule or disallow it. How is that democratic? This vote is about Idealogy versus Reality!

Scare stories! Its really working for them isnt it! markets will react to uncertainty but will recover - its complete guess work to say it will be years of economic doldrums if there is a vote to leave. In fact, markets can be counter intuitive. When the EZ introduced "the big bazooka" of more QE and cut in rates markets recovered very quickly on view that it was "positive action" to solve the economic issues Alot of remainers think they are voting for the status quo but a week after the UK result Spain go to the polls and then Italy- where it looks certain that current governments have lost out to the centre right...who guess what...want a referendum. = uncertainty! A remain vote for me will be opting for our inclusion in many years of further euro scepticism and the drag on the UK economy will be long and drawn out because the EU experiment hasnt worked. Id rather take positive action and vote Leave to help pioneer a new way to work with our european friends on a more effective level - including free trade without the threat of fines for not beign part of an exclusive club which favours only the wealthy Anyway - time for a cup of tea :-)

I only mentioned james Dyson to say that he called the notion of us not being able to negotiate trade agreements "cobblers". Its a view alot of my clients share too. I dont think I said he would be a great trade negotiator and I dont really care what he predicted in the past. If you are looking at past predictions then all the scaremongering around how "if we dont join the Euro" is a better example of how looking through those threats/worries does not exactly equate to a life of fire and brimstone. People make predictions and people can be wrong, but its up to you to decide with reasoned thought - rather than beign pushed into an "easy/emotional" mindset that means you find its "stupid" to want to leave. In my experience anyone with too much of an emotional affiliation to either side is most likely to get a eureka moment and change their mind after challengign themselves a bit (me included) Anyway- to my friend London Mix I just wanted to come back on your earlier query....yes I do believe there is a very high "disintegration risk" with the EU if we vote to Leave. I only mentioned this as the issue of trade seems to be a huge concern for you, so in combination with the likes of Chairman of British Chamber of Commerce, clients direct etc sayign that we could actually prosper outside of this "club" (post a short term period of uncertainty yes)- I am also just sayign there is also the possibility that your fears might be further mitigated by the notion that I have become more unsure of the EU and do not believe that "Remain will mean relief" at all - I think we enter a period of more worry and uncertainty about the EU which will have a long and protracted detrimental effect on the UK economy and Id rather accept short term uncertainty than choose to endure this. I believe if we vote to Leave then the rule book gets re-written and I view it as a positive that we take our chance to do something about it rather than remain in something that does not work. Elements of it do work of course, but I think businesses should be able to trade freely with any country in the EU directly and not have to be part of the EU club to do it. This referendum asks whether we should remain or leave. I look at the economy now and all other issues and answerign the question directly I have to say Leave.

LondonMix- absolutely...markets dont like uncertainty and if there is a vote to Leave the market will react for sure. its just my view that this will not be as long term as people fear

Root- Good luck haha! however your glib comment hits upon a very valid issue- do you vote for yourself, or for the good of the country / all? Ive wrestled with this Ill tell you London Mix - youve raised a very valid, crucial issue on trade but the harsh truth is that no-one knows how it will play out. The key consideration is if you are willing to take that "risk". I will state however that a great fire or flood will not immediately envelop the UK with all business run into the ground overnight.If we vote to Leave we do so under article 50 which states that we have 2 years to negotiate our exit (or sooner). It will be BAU for a long while. Any extension to this is only by agreement of the member states, but my own view is that Germany, france etc will want to move very quickly indeed to strike up trade agreements with us, and I also believe that we will be very good at negotiating them too. Trade will not just stop. No country will just price themselves out of business - and I find it hard to beleive that the EU will introduce "punish tax/ tariffs" onto the UK in spite of us leaving. I think that would be very hard to implement at the top table so Ive filed that one under fear tactics. I totally recognise that others will have an alternate view but Ive based my conclusions on 2 things 1) What Im hearing from senior people in very large organisations. James Dyson also called the notion of not being able to negotitate trade agreements "cobblers" (my clients all share this view) but the really interestign view for me was John Longworth who until recently was head of the British chamber of Commerce. He had the interests of british businesses at heart and surely knew the intracacies of dealign with the EU better than anyone. He HAD to speak up (and it cost him his job). He was massively well respected. 2) Secondly, I have my own views which link back to my thoughts around a new world of Euro scepticism. I genuinely feel that the EU is a failed experiment. Even if we Remain investment will still stall and the economy will enter a long protracted position of low growth/recession anyway. I genuinely feel that if we vote to Leave it will be the end of this system that is not working (look at all the economies now) and there will be a wider move and renegotiation on trade in Europe. I have alot of confidence in Britains ability to lead not be led, and I wont be surprised if there was a leave vote to see Cameron et al step forward immediately with a concrete plan. For me the question is do we recognise all this now and plan /regrow/invoke positive change or do we put a sticking plaster over it and remain simply afraid of an unknown. For me the unknown can be positive not just negative

Absolutely ????. Big jump in markets today on back on a suspected swing back to Remain in ICM poll- but it turned out to be bogus. I genuinely think the result will be Leave - Leave is ahead, has the momentum, and generally I think there seems to be a groundswell in understanding with people looking through the fear and negativity that initially worked so well in remain campaign (admittedly though some good examples of that being used on both sides). Cameron et al obviously "disaster planning" in case of Brexit and rumours breaking hes stepping that up. He'd be mad not to. Its very close to call but I think if there is Brexit youll be amazed how quickly the gov comes forward with a sound plan. Undoubedtly markets will react initally to uncertainty as thats what they do- but they will recover quickly with a plan. With Italy and potentially others lining up even if we Remain I think the EU will be more of a long term drag for the UK economy. Remain will not equal relief and I think many agree we now face a new world of Euro Scepticism. Some of my clients (inv banking) are now comign around to the notion of short term pain for long term gain, as opposed to long term protracted pain! Its a tough call and I dont want to preach, but the "no brainer" for Remain is anythign but- the counter argument is definitely there

Sorry London Mix- wasnt trying to "light the firework and stand well back", but I do have a fair amount of battle fatigue now when it comes to people introducing "facts". I think the key issue for the referendum- and a key source of confusion for many - has not necessarily been the facts themselves but the interpretation of them. Your post contained some facts but alot of what you have written is purely circumstantial eg "?The time it will take it renegotiate trade deals with each of these countries should not be underestimated. Also, without the scale of the EU trading block as a prize, the UK will certainly get a worse deal with those 50 countries than is currently the case". I could genuinely write a full page on each and every point you have made but Im cautious to get drawn into that as I dont want to come across as preaching. Im very keen that people do not swallow "facts" when they are not thats all. Reading your posts I think a good question for you (and all of us actually) is whether you are still open to changing your mind? Can you even imagine changing your mind and voting Leave irrespective of any counter argument you might hear?

Correction London Mix - there are SOME facts in there, but the majority of your 'conclusions' around them are purely circumstantial "After looking at all the facts, this is the bottom line for me. ?By leaving the EU, Britain will its current free trade agreement with the EU unless it accepts the continued unlimited migration of EU citizens to the UK. No country, including Switzerland as recently as 2014 has successfully been able to get full tariff free access to the trade zone while limiting EU migration. ?The new trade deal will take a long time to negotiate (it typically takes 5 years when everyone at the table is willing and eager to reach an agreement). The EU only exports 16% of its goods to the UK while the UK exports 44% of its goods the EU block. The EU will have a much stronger negotiating position in light of this. The idea that the UK trade deficit with the EU is a negotiating advantage is incorrect. In fact, it further weakens the UK. While its export sector is contracting simultaneously the cost of its imports will be escalating causing a recession and inflation simultaneously. ?Not only with the UK lose preferential access to the EU market, it will lose all the trade agreements the EU has negotiated with 50 other countries that the UK currently benefits from. ?The time it will take it renegotiate trade deals with each of these countries should not be underestimated. Also, without the scale of the EU trading block as a prize, the UK will certainly get a worse deal with those 50 countries than is currently the case. ?While deindustrialization is a serious issue impacting the economy, its source is not the UK but rather the ability of global capital to develop industry in the cheapest global labor market. This is something that impacts the US and other advanced economies that have no ties whatsoever to the EU and leaving the EU won?t have any impact on this unfortunately. ?The financial services sector will be significantly impacted by the UK?s departure from the EU as legally they will no longer be able to carry out certain services within the EU. For this reason, all the major non-EU banks will have to reduce head count in London (which will still serve as a smaller center ) as they will need to create a EU headquarter within the EU. ?The period of uncertainty following the vote regarding trade, immigration, changing laws, the new government (as Cameron would certainly resign), a new Scottish referendum (which would now more likely vote to leave the UK) etc would exacerbate the negative impact of a reduction in trade as investment into the economy would completely freeze (probably for 18 months to 2 years based on the feedback we are hearing from our investors). These are the real costs of leaving the E.U.What is there to gain? ?In total only 5% of the UK?s population is EU citizens and that includes a significant amount of Irish who will still be able to come here irrespective of the outcome. ?Most immigration to Britain is from non-EU countries. This illustrates the UK (despite EU migration) still needs to import skills for fill critical roles. EU migrants are employed at higher rates than British citizens, which means that in addition to filling critical roles, they absolutely pay for the services they use via tax contributions. The strain on public services is due to a lack of investment rather than a lack of funds generated from migrants per-se. Therefore significantly reducing immigration cannot be done without further worsening the economic situation of the country. ?A recurring point has been that the poor have been impacted the competition from EU migrants from Eastern European countries. I really don?t understand this argument. Circa 2% of the UK population is from Eastern Europe. How is this 2% influx having a significant negative impact on the working class? They are such a small part of the population that its hard for me to understand. ?Sovereignty?this is an abstract value that each person prizes differently. If this is your reason for leaving, I can respect that as long as you are aware of the true costs involved."

Definitely voting to Leave

you can def expect a two tier entry system (eg one for main entrance then another for eg gym). No more getting waved through. Im personally quite excited by the new ownership and can only see upside / improvements. I might even join again if they deliver - bring it on!

what equipment or services did you have in mind?

yep - try the goodlifecentre or the building training centre in Croydon who run home maintenance courses OR if youre desperate to get your pictures up a half decent book on Amazon will help, as would a web search. You could even engage the services of one of the fine local handymen* who frequent this very forum *check them out first!!

take it down and replace it with a mural like on the wall behind EDT

From the mouth of the horse... More info on launch date but new equipment yes (if not immediately then very soon) Few changes to offerings (hot yoga anyone?) Unlikely swim only or gym only membership but more likely single site membership Def address maintenance All existing memberships will carry over New membership packages being costed now Full comms on all this at contract live

"So you walk through a park and you don't expect to encounter dogs? How utterly ridiculous " - the OP didnt say that?? "I think you are making it worse for the kid to be honest, in my opinion it is the adult who has the fear and then this gets taken on by the kid" - They dont sound scared of dogs to me. clear references to having owned one and beign ok with friendly approaches. Sounds like they were just comforting their frightened child "Dogs are aloud to run about in most parts of Peckham park, I think people need to remember that dogs are unpredictable just as much as little kids are" - isnt that their point?? "Seriously I think you are making things worse for your kid" - how on earth are they doing that?

The newly vacant site on FHR is going to be a solarium - owned and managed by Beauty Plus

Evans Cycles is opening up in East Dulwich

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I'm sure most mums and dads, including myself, cringe at similar memories in the days before babies, so don't feel too bad! ...along with thinking agghh itll be easy!!Guess its just one of those things you have to experience before you can ever really gain any true understanding or empathy ( as with lots of other things no doubt) Lovely post though, very well meant.....good luck!!! Ps. Now i only hate my baby crying but I'm fine if it's someone else's !

Hi They put air conditioning in over the summer and changed the layout slightly ( for the better I might add). I've been very recently and didn't notice any vomit on the balls or smells and all the kids there were enjoying it and making friends etc. It looks, sounds and feels exactly like any other soft play.....mental! Which I guess is what's its supposed to be like. I noticed no issues at all with cleanliness if that helps

Hi I'm looking for a great museum to take a lively 2 year old. Would appreciate any recommendations from anyone who may have been recently ( eg perhaps somewhere with good areas for younger children etc) Horniman is great, but in your view do any one of the major museums cater particularly well for toddlers? Thank you !

Yep- another one. We had a bay tree stolen from our front garden, which was in a large pot. We were pretty amazed that someone had the audacity to stroll in through the gate, and just help themselves! Clearly someone is making a tidy profit by selling all these on! No doubt they drive around looking for easy targets...