Domitianus

I always get TJ mixed up with a bunch of other female Blairites who came to power a number of years ago. I know it's cruel but they all seemed to be intense, faintly bitter-seeming (but, oh so carefully hidden!), turkey-necked women who gave off this sad impression of being tragically desperate to succeed. Could all be my misogynistic projections, of course, but they just all seemed to blur one into the other so much so that I can't even remember the names of the others - they are just some frightful female New-Labour gestalt in my mind. I only remember TJ by name as she is the local MP.

Asset Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > "I am chuffed to think I could have such > influence, I must say. smiling smiley ". > I didn't mean you specifically, I meant 'one'. > Downsouth - so people started predicting the > recession not that long after we were coming out > of the last one then? It's only really in the > last year that it has been discussed with any > seriousness which is one reason for the lack of > confidence in the economy, prior to that we were > all being told how great the world economy was. > Are people being made redundant in any greater > number of late? > > Indeed, I don't think ED will be immune if it > happens, which looks likely now we are all talking > about it. I bet quite a few people - especially > first time buyers - have been tempted by interest > payment only mortgages on the assumption that the > value of their property will pay off the loan. > These are the people who will find themselves in > extreme difficulty if there is an increase in > interest rates and loss of value in property. > Karter may know people who own their property > outright but I reckon it is still a minority of > owners in ED that do. Saying that I don't think > ED will suffer a dramatic loss in value, maybe > just less of an increase. I think that Asset's summary of the situation is well-articulated. Only place I differ is that I think the situation might become a little more extreme than a mere slow-down. Point he/she makes that justifies this thread and doom-and-gloom talk is that there are naive and desperate first time buyers etc who are absolutely crucifying themselves financially at the moment to get a property with the view that there is a guaranteed upside and that the worst that can happen is you fail to buy a house when it is (just about, if you tighten the belt until it hurts and gear yourself to the limit) possible, and have to watch prices soar further and realise you have missed the boat and will NEVER be able to afford a house EVER again. That is not a balanced perspective for people to be making investment decisions upon, particularly when there is a distinct possibility that the boat might start sinking before it even leaves the quay. I think it is useful for people to know that this is a far from certain scenario and that the urgency and desperation with which they approach house-buying may be inappropriate. If the market does correct itself significantly then there will be good deals to be had and people may be glad they have waited. Obviously no-one knows which will happen for sure but I think it useful for folk to at least be aware that there are different potential outcomes.

I kind of like the squishy feeling when it goes between your toes.

Perhaps that also was an unreliable memory. Perhaps I never actually had a childhood! I like to think that I emerged full-formed and perfect like Venus from a shell.

I said that the good-times "may not last", not that business won't. Also there is no reason at all why ED should be immune from the forecasts of experts despite what you say. Repossessions strike at every level of financial status, poor, middle-class or more affluent. Indeed, poor areas tend to have more social housing that mitigates against the repossessions etc suffered by more affluent areas where there may well be a higher proportion of owner-occupiers with crippling mortgages. And whilst there may be some in ED who own their properties outright for some of the reasons you suggest, I suspect they are a small minority. I quote figures from people in the City as that is where the folks who look at these types of things tend to work. When might we see this crunch? Well, the figures from a few sources are as follows: Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors - zero percent house price inflation in 2008 and a one-in-ten chance of serious falls (revised from earlier forecast of 3% inflation). Nationwide - 3% growth in 2008 at best. Savills Estate Agency - zero percent inflation between now and New Year and perhaps as much as a 5% downturn in same period. Other figures who have seriously questioned stability of UK housing market include (as mentioned before) Alan Greenspan and ABN Amro. I am sure there are more. We have also seen serious decline in value of buy-to-let (40%) and, overseas, big problems in property prices in the US, Ireland and Spain. From these forecasts I think we could expect to see a very dramatic change in UK property prices between now and end of 2008 (Savills see things getting worse within three months).

On an associated note - am I the only person who can remember the days when dog poo would lie in the street under the summer sun so long that it became dry, white and dessicated? I remember this clearly from being a young child yet am starting to wonder if it is just an unreliable memory.

I am chuffed to think I could have such influence, I must say. :) Whilst I agree that there is the possibility that constantly discussing something can lead to it happening, there is also the danger of not facing adverse possibilities. I think that over the last number of years there has been an almost euphoric belief that property is inevitably going to make the owner money and that is equally dangerous. I think maybe some balance is needed.

VERY early days!

It is early days!

My observation would be that so many people have mortgaged themselves absolutely to the hilt in order to get on the property ladder just when the rungs are starting to crumble. In order to see any sort of upside or way out they have relied upon continuing house price inflation which may no longer continue. Increases in interest rates may well stretch beyond breaking point people who have already been encouraged to take on plain silly levels of debt. If people are struggling (or even if they are managing to get by but are in the negative mind-set of negative equity) then they may well tend to cut back on 'luxuries' and avoidable expenses. LL, in my view, sports many businesses that proffer exactly the type of businesses and services that people only really spend money on during the good times. I am not sure if they are likely to last.

Sorry to sound like a harbinger of doom again here but we should be thinking about the implications for house prices in general. Current inflated prices have, to an extent, been driven by demand from the one-trick-ponies who think that house-prices only go up and that buy-to-let cookie-cutter businesses are a sure-fire way to riches. Once that business model is exposed as dubious, or at least far from a sure thing, a source of demand for housing could dry up with subsequent negative impact on all house prices. This, if it happens, will inevitably affect the value of the assets of those who have bought property to actually live in. I re-read a newspaper clipping I quoted from a few months ago in which ABN Amro economists predicted that the global housing market is set for a major price correction (inevitably downwards, I'm afraid). I had forgotten the fact that the same economist considered the UK housing market as over-priced by FIFTY PERCENT!!!! If there is a price correction reflecting even a fraction of that percentage there are many people who will end up badly burnt and that will not just be the buy-to-let crowd. Incidentally, Alan Greenspan, until recently Chairman of the US Federal Reserve and a highly regarded central banker, went on record recently as stating that he thinks the UK housing market is in for trouble. Gordon 'Smoke and Mirrors' Brown was apparently entertaining him at Chequers last night. I am sure that was an interesting conversation.

From Bloomberg today: The buy-to-let market is in crisis as 40 per cent has been wiped off the value of new purpose-built investment properties in the past year, a survey by The Daily Telegraph has found. Investors have been left facing losses of thousands of pounds on their properties. A study of nearly all the new-build flats that have come up for auction in recent weeks shows they are selling for, on average, just 60 per cent of what property investors paid for them. While official figures suggest that the UK property market - including buy-to-let - is in fair health, there are growing numbers of new-build flats being repossessed in cities such as Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham, Norwich and Nottingham. The prices being achieved by the auction houses are invariably well below the original prices. Last week a two-bed flat in the canal side area of Bingley, West Yorkshire, fetched GBP105,000 - a far cry from the GBP179,995 that it was originally sold for in July last year. Others have been sold for similarly large discounts. Many investors who have had their fingers burnt claim that they were duped into paying too much. Meanwhile, property experts warn that the problem could get worse, with local authorities granting planning permission for hundreds of blocks of flats each week and developers still offering generous incentives to potential investors. Matthew Loades, an investor who is losing money from his buy-to-let properties, said: "I think there are tens of thousands of people out there who like me jumped on the apartment bandwagon thinking they were on to a winner. Now they are feeling the pain." Recent research also suggests that two-thirds of buy-to-let investors are not making enough from their rental income to meet their mortgage payments. This is because the interest rate hikes over the last year has left investors, who generally take out variable mortgages, facing much higher monthly repayments. The Association of Residential Letting Agents, which represents buy-to-let mortgage lenders, said 67 per cent of all landlords were making rental returns of five per cent or less in August - much lower than the very best buy-to-let mortgages of 5.5 per cent. Supporters of buy-to-let say most investors should not be hit by the mortgage squeeze because they are sitting on large profits made in the boom of the last couple of years. Official Government figures show that purpose-built flats have climbed in price by 16 per cent over the last two years. However, in Nottingham 10 flats are on sale in Brook Court, Nottingham for GBP89,950 - a sharp fall on the GBP139,000 that the developer was selling them for as recently as December last year. Oh dear!

Sorry to disappoint you but Sharon Stone is a rather dim and unattractive shelf-stacker on work experience. On the other hand, when I was in Tesco on Old Kent Road recently there was an announcement "Would Harvey Keitel, film actor and screen legend, who has taken some time to join us in the roll of a humble in-store janitor to research his latest film role, please go to aisle 7 where a child has vomited." And guess what.....

Perhaps they were standing by in case they were called upon to evict mothers and children from Le Chandelier?

I remember encountering a rather odd chap, middle-aged, bald and bearded, on New Oxford Street who was distributing photocopies of a tightly-typed document he had apparently written detailing how wrong it was of the authorities to object to the fact that he was attracted to women oriental origin and naming the various forms of harassment he had experienced from the authorities that had caused the break-up of his marriage to one such lady. The rambling, repetitive, incoherent style made it quite clear that he was mentally disordered but, let me tell you, if I had half his passion about anything as he had about his particular bug-bear, I would set the world alight.

bawdy-nan Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Dom - have you thought about approaching CH4 / 5 > about your own child-rearing show. You could tour > the nappy valley hotspots pointing out good and > bad child management .... > > Have to say the scene you describe sounds lovely > .. children chatting instead of smearing food in > their hair,/ fighting, grandparents keen to engage > in conversation, relaxed parents ready with a > Julie Andrews style firm but fair discipline - do > you think they're available for lessons? I'd > certainly be in the market for a bit of light > happy family training! Since this was a comparatively rare incident I just don't know if there would be the material to stretch it out to a series. I have, however, considered a show featuring the flip side of the coin, along the lines of 'Police, Camera, Action' or 'The World's Wildest Police Videos' featuring snippets with accompanying commentary from CCTV, police response vehicles and camera phones, revealing to all the true horror of the under fives. I was thinking of 'Brat, Camera, Distraction'. Any other thoughts on possible titles?

How about 'Say No To Unwanted....stuff!' That is a campaign that is so loosely phrased that everyone can buy into it (except masochists who like to have irritating stuff...like hair shirts and bondage clothing with the studs on the inside. Yeeaaahhh!!!

Why, 'tis John, of course. John of the Glen who has come down from the hills for market day!

I am equally confused, but this little story might confuse people even more. On SUnday I had a lovely experience in a public place with a family with young children (stop it!!!) It was in a local hostelry that does smashing Sunday roasts. I was sitting at a table enjoying my lamb when a family of what appeared to be three generations sat at the table next to me (I say 'seemed' as the couple I took to be the grandparents were quite youthful still). In tow they had two kids, one little girl of about three and a baby of about one. I had a slight feeling of dread due to previous experiences in close proximity to ungoverned children but the whole affair was delightful. Why? Because the adults present paid attention to the children, involved them in conversation and on the only occasion when the three year old started to get a bit raucous, she was calmly but firmly admonished to behave - and she did. The whole group seemed to have a wonderful time as did I just sitting at the next table as my fears of ear-piercing and unchecked childlike screeches did not materialise. My surprise was not that children can behave quite well in public whilst still enjoying themselves (I know this from experience with my own nephew and children of other friends) but that I was sitting next to a group of responsible adults in ED who seemed to have discovered the same thing and made it happen. My observations seem to suggest that it simply comes down to simple, basic, traditional child-rearing techniques of balancing the child's desire to explore and express itself with the need to set behavioural boundaries. It really shouldn't be rocket science but it is a skill that seems to have skipped a generation in much of ED. I dearly hope to see more examples of such balanced and responsible parenting and the delightful, well-adjusted children it seems to produce.

Only if I can snog you after we get pissed at the Reception. Louisa is bound to b****r off to the ladies at some stage of the evening.

Louisa, may I marry you? Nice to have someone else on here who can draw off some of the bullets :))

Jeremy Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > There's definitely been a slowdown... but talk of > negative equity? This seems rather premature. Maybe not. In today's Times, the estate agent Savills has apparently stated that it expects central London property prices to be at best completely flat and are preparing for as much as a 5% downturn between the end of the month and the New Year alone!!! Simple maths shows that as being a decrease of up to 20% per annum if it continues! And that is coming from an estate agent whose livelihood depends on people buying!!!! If they are projecting those possibilities publicly I think we can assume that they are privately expecting much worse.

An alternative would be to recycle one's condoms. I do. Simply simmer in clean water with a little salt added. Make sure to thoroughly rinse afterwards, however, otherwise the salt condenses into lumps which can be quite painful when rolling over one's John Thomas.

If your post was simply tongue-in-cheek then I apologise but I detected a barb in it and responded in kind.

Hey, you were the one who had to dig up old threads that were long-since buried and start to imply that my opinions are based on some sort of irrational response rather than a difference in opinion. What do you expect me to say?