macroban

Excellent re-dedication service today. Very good that the Roll was read as part of the service. Thank you to all who organised this. MacRoban

Admin/Chair is having a bad day.

Why has the "Chair" deleted its last post? A second bad move.

Bad move "Chair".

x

Yes, I used to buy my puncture rubber patches and glue from them.

> buy to let portfolio... Borrow-to-let portfolio...

I referenced the NIESR graph because I think it is a useful visual tool. The NIESR report also has tables which undermine the commentary. The widely used definition of a recession started life as a political fix in the USA. Two consecutive quarters of falling GDP is a recession. One quarter of falling GDP followed by one quarter of GDP growth is not a recession. That is self-evidently silly. The point of the NIESR graph is that it shows the cumulative fall in GDP. I don't agree that one quarter of GDP growth leaving the cumulative fall in GDP at about 5.4% means the recession has ended.

Have another look at the data points ????.

I think this chart is useful in tracking: Declines in UK GDP I am aware of the arguments about how GDP is calculated. The blue line is the minor reduction in GDP in 1990-1993 which some young people call a "recession". Anyone born after 1959 has not been through a real recession as an adult. I don't know how well prepared these young people are for a continuing recession. My gut reaction is that the GDP reduction may trough at -10%. Thereafter that black line may wobble along the horizontal for a long time. I hope I an wrong.

Pseuds' Roof-top?

> 1. Person can be nearly dead, dying, or easily pass for dead, as in obscure. Silly rule. All of us are dying. Some of us are closer to death than others and know it. Some of us are closer to death than others and don't know it.

Raise your eyes, jester, and look at the phantom.

!!!! I almost agree with ????. I'd add three supplementaries: [1] Do you have a target retirement date? [2] Do you want to be debt-free by that date? [3] How risk adverse are you to not achieving [1] and [2]? And now back on topic... For ????: You've opened the can of worms of interest rate and inflation differentials - a subject for another thread. Based on your quoted 4% differential do you think that the current base rate would be 3.25% or 6.5% without the current aggresive market manipulation?

Apologies for going off-topic, PeckhamRose.