Lordship 516

Jeremy Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Like I say, I am making assumptions. That EU > citizens settled here for any length of time are > not going to get booted out. That EU residents are > not going to be subject to arbitrary immigration > rules, more stringent than current non-EU rules. > > I'm not denying that there is a lot of > uncertainty, and things are going to get > complicated and difficult for many. Currently one of those rules is that if you currently have no visa to live in the UK [like a spouse visa] you have to apply for your visa from your home country and cannot return to the UK until that is granted - a lot of grief & uncertainty.

WorkingMummy Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Jeremy - there are affordability-of-dependence > checks on those types of visas too. Which many > people are worried about and may not pass. Mays > record of heartlessness in that regard whilst HS > was awful. > > Anyhow, how do you think it even feels to suddenly > have to think this way about your own family - in > your own country. In app of this mess it is the uncertainty that is distressing people, further exacerbated by there being no plan for anything. Political uncertainty made worse by politicians squabbling & a timeline for resolution not even in sight. Economic uncertainty mainly due to political inaction & deteriorating conditions. Social uncertainty further fueled by destabilizing statements from the very people who ought to promote stability. My wife & step-daughter are Chinese with indefinite leave to remain and now they have more residency security that most of the EU citizens that are in the UK. Next year they can apply for citizenship if they wish and as they both have passed the 'Life in the UK' test already, they can become citizens more or less for the asking. It would be a great injustice to EU citizens if their status was to be held any less than this.

Funny story about the wife of a certain PM - she went to a very specialist silk emporium in Suzhou that closed the shop so she & her companions could shop for rare silks. She loaded up a trolley with a lot of beautiful silks & marched to the checkout not expecting to pay. The owner had to be called but he politely requested either cash or credit card. Feet were stamped but no hope - she paid the bill. That day the UK lost a lot of face with Chinese people as this story was shared all over. These people are just in it for the money & don't care about little people. They have gotten away with the loot & will brazen it out.

From the manner in which the great Bliar operated in concert with the US authorities without reference to the legitimate governing structures of the UK government, he has shown himself to be the agent of a foreign power & as such is guilty, not only of war crimes, but also guilty of high treason.

The number of signatories signing up has slowed somewhat but if it keeps up at the slower rate of yesterday & today it could reach 100,000 by 18th July - there might be a further falling off but hopefully it will reach the 100,000 point by the end of the month. Currently it stands at 13,059 UK based signatures up from 10,434 at 6:40 yesterday. Can we all refresh our sharing & linking; contact all the people previously and ask them to make a fresh push.

Hi WM The following might help you with the records http://www.census.nationalarchives.ie/search/ [this covers the 1911 census for the whole island including the six counties of Northern Ireland. https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/family-and-local-history-records http://search.ancestry.co.uk/search/db.aspx?dbid=2573 The Irish Dept of Foreign Affairs & Trade [Passport Office in London] don't care if you have other passports - if you have an entitlement to an Irish passport they will be very helpful to you to achieve that - I found them their attitude is welcoming & encouraging - almost like welcoming a long lost relative back home. However, at the moment they are swamped & it might take a bit of time to process all the new enquiries but they will get them done. They also have a Passport Card that is very useful for use traveling within the EU/EEA & Switzerland.

Let's not forget that just 2 years ago, Cameron vociferously opposed the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as President of the EU commission. He did this all at the last minute when he ought to have foreseen what was happening much earlier and 'oiled' [like a good little Etonian] among the EU electors much earlier & stronger to get someone else nominated. There were plenty of countries not happy to appoint Juncker but Cameron & his buddies left it too late to marshal their opposition. Before the vote Cameron told EU leaders they may live to regret the appointment, warning them of the grave consequences for public opinion in Britain. This was the man that he had to negotiate with to get concessions which he then based the referendum. Juncker owed Cameron no favours & he got precious little to bring home. Also Cameron bounced himself into the referendum because he was trying to outflank Farage - that wasn't a problem. But he ought to have refused to hold the referendum on the grounds of national interest & also the timing not being conducive. Then when he lost, he flounced out of No. 10 like a kid that has had his favoutite blanky stolen. Not really PM material - all mouth & (no) trousers. I think all of the UK may live to regret the appointment of Cameron as Prime Minister as it certainly has had grave consequences for everyone here & Europe also. Quentin Davies MP, who defected from the Conservatives to Labour in 2007, branded him "superficial, unreliable and [with] an apparent lack of any clear convictions" - how correct he was. The primary candidate that must bear responsibility for this debacle is the Rt. Hon David William Donald Cameron MP

WorkingMummy Wrote: > > Thank God - from a completely selfish point of > view - I have today had it confirmed that my > maternal grandmother was born in Ireland in 1900, > entitling me to an Irish passport. But I know > other British mothers of European families who do > not have this comfort and it is awful for them. > > I am seriously considering paying the 227 quid to > renounce my BRITISH citizenship, once my Irish > passport is sorted. I feel I have very little > connection left with this land that I have lived > in all my life. Hi WM Do you have all your grandmothers details - where born etc ? If you have any certificate [birth, marriage, death, old deeds] these can help. Sometimes Irish records can be difficult to obtain as the Customs House in Dublin was partially destroyed in 1922 [during the 'Troubles']. See link for more info - www.gov.ie/en/essays/genealogy.html I'd say - Keep both passports - I have both and it's quite useful. Good luck !

DaveR Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I don't think we disagree about definitions, but I > think you have missed my point. You make a > comparison with tsunamis, but modelling tsunamis > is ultimately about the application of the laws of > physics to inanimate materials. Economics, > however, as you observe "is a social science and > subject to all the vagaries of human nature..". > It's just not the same, which is why when > seismologists press the red button we all head for > the high ground, but when economists do the same > we are entitled to be sceptical. FWIW, my own > view is that the medium - long term economic > impact of Brexit is very likely to be negative but > unlikely to be catastrophic - in particular, I am > dubious about the stagflation predictions. Apart > from anything else there appears to be a key > assumption that 'the EU' is an institution whose > behaviour is likely to be consistent and > predictable over time - a very weak assumption > when, just as a single example, there is a Frenchreal estate, sharee > presidential election less than a year from now. The reference to a tsunami was allegorical only. What happens in France or anywhere else will not influence our current situation unless they give us a lot of financial support. We have opted to go it alone for the moment. Everything so far points to stagflation being a distinct possibility & the political uncertainty is not helping. This will continue for a long time and will make people & companies very defensive & hesitant to invest & spend. We have already had one of the major elements of stagflation inflation due to currency depreciation - this has yet to come through in prices as vendors will try their best to hold off as long as they can out of self interest but the next six months are crucial for employment. Carney easing lending may or may not have any effect but it depends on people & companies being able or willing to borrow. Much borrowing is against tangible asset classes such as real estate, shares, stocks, etc all of which may already have been used or devalued. Even if the borrowing facility is taken up, it offers little by the way of addressing the demand side of the equation & is certainly not enough [even with the mooted interest rate reduction to 0.25% & increased quantitative easing] to keep us out of a serious recession from early 2017. Tough times ahead. Unfortunately stagflation takes time to embed & when it does it is too late to fend it off.

bsand Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I've just pulled out of putting my house on the > market as we wanted to downsize and were going to > go with Winkworth's. They are saying that buyers > are expecting 5 - 10 % off what they regards as > "fair price" and houses under offer have buyers > asking for a similar discount. Who knows where > this is going but as we can sit it out for the > forseeable and are doing that for now. Could > regret this 2 years down the line if prices are > down 30% or so - truth is nobody knows could > easily go the other way. Hi bsand Your decision will probably replicated many thousands of times and also a lot of sellers will refuse offers for some time. It is too soon for anyone to offer any advice as there is not enough data on what unemployment is going to be and we also have to wait to see who the new PM is & who her government will be. The Autumn statement will display a lot but until early next year and it won't be possible to see a way forward probably until after the budget - by that time there ought to be some sort of feedback from the EU & parliament so housing & construction will be in the doldrums. What you say is the simple truth - no one knows. New house sales were in decline before the referendum anyway so there will possibly be a very flat period for the forseeable future 1 to 2 years [or so - no one knows] That's what political uncertainty does, i'm afraid, & more to come with the induced economic uncertainty.

Hi Rook Much of my work is with clients across various countries including South America, China & Europe & from both buyers & suppliers. Someetimes they will provide me with parameters & other times they are requesting us to provide likely outcomes. All of the companies are forever looking at alternative sources of supply in normal times & I have a few enquiries from a number of different countries to keep a watching brief an what the consequences of each factor [energy costs, currency, duties, taxes, admin costs, shipping, security of supply etc]. They do this for their own peace of mind. No company will ever disrupt a relationship for notional reasons but they have have this knowledge in reasonable time to protect their interest. Most Chinese money has gone flat for all of Europe at the moment but especially flat for the UK. They won't sell out as they are never jumpy but they will wait to evaluate again at each waypoint in the scenario.

miga Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Lordship 516 Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > who program in Fortran > > like it is our mother tongue - sometimes we > strip > > out redundant lines of code or insert routines > of > > our own. > > This made me chuckle....that's kind of what > programming is. Yep - but I was simplifying my answer so it wouldn't have too much techno rubbish in it. You are very familiar but others might not. To answer you directly - our main model is written using Fortran and was first set up about 40 years ago. We have kept the basic shell & refined it to a block tructure over the years [i belong to the 'goto' era - early 70s !. For our purposes it is superior to so-called modern Fortran developments. 'nuff about software. No one really wants to know.

Apologies again if you feel patronized - not intended, mea maxima culpa. Your definition of a model is reasonable but there is another take on what a model is - a model seeks to provide a representation of the environment which the client is seeking to understand and should be capable of interrogation to display variations of that environment in response to the client's queries. The second part of your definition is something that every modeler ascribes to In good faith I responded in the same manner as I would to friendly neighbours. Its a fair question to ask what our data might be & also fair for me to refuse to share it as this is our stock in trade. Carney displayed a little data today & has kicked off the information trail that will eventually display more or less what I and others have been talking about. I never predicted doom & gloom - what I have indicated is a certain reality that is unfolding and will further unfold daily/weekly/monthly/yearly and a lot of people will suffer due to this awful political impasse. The quants didn't get anyone into any mess. Quants merely show consequences & options - its the policy makers that screw it up by not testing their policies in a robust manner. Every policy move has a consequence [intended or unintended] & usually can be measured but often ideology takes over & politicians either on the left or right plow ahead because they feel they know best. Most often the quants will then inform their clients where the gains will be much like tax accountants & lawyers will inform clients about how to take advantage of certain tax laws. The facts are simple - we are heading for the rocks & badly need saving by some intervention that doesn't appear to be on the horizon yet. Its like a tsunami - we know the earthquake has gone off somewhere deep in the ocean & can even see little ripples appearing on the surface of the water - it will grow and grow as the wave progresses unless it is stopped in its tracks by a superior force or if the energy is absorbed by the distance of travel. Not all will be fortunate enough to make it through the storm. During the last couple of days someone made a comment about the people in his workplace making a comment that it would be best not to spend at this time & just pay down debt if you can. This is good personal advice but it will be bad for the economy as it will depress already stressed markets & cause employment. To fix our economy now we need everyone to go out & spend like crazy but people's defensive nature & herd instinct dictate otherwise. We have already entered the cycle & I'm sorry but all that is visible is doom & gloom. Economics is a social science and subject to all the vagaries of human nature & the natural world. Sometimes 2 = 2 can equal less than 4. If we could apply the Hegelian Dialectic it would be wonderful - Thesis, Synthesis, Synthesis [Mark went down that route & failed] - however trying to resolve economic systems & expecting large diverse groups of people to respond accordingly really is like herding cats. My hope is that with all the chaos in play at the moment, both sides - UK & EU defer Article 50 & will work together to seek a middle way that will keep the relationship more or less like it is - not really remaining but not leaving either. Face saving all round should be accommodated not the current chest beating, bombastic, adversarial posturing that is currently underway.

22:08 Signatures 10,002 This can reach 100,000 by the end of Monday 11th July More links, shares, push..............>

rahrahrah Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I think I see what you mean. EU companies may be > put off importing goods from the UK due to > uncertainty about future trade deals (despite the > weaker pound making such goods cheaper at least in > the short term)? Yes, as they will need to source an alternative source of supply & they will factor in the future issue of tariffs in their pricing Models as well as the increased customs issues. This will lead them towards hedging their bets, not totally cutting UK supply off but taking product from elsewhere also - this also puts price pressure on the UK supplier. There is also another effect - much of the items that will be priced in ?s will have components within the cost that will be denominated in foreign currencies such as energy which prices will increase. So the goods will not have a simple reduction linked to the reduction in the ?, whereas imports prices will be directly linked to the reduction in the value of the ?.

rahrahrah Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Lordship 516 Wrote: > > > When inflation rises, purchasing power is > > diminished. > > The resultant drop in consumer spending has a > > negative effect on stock and bond prices that > will > > be further affected by a resistance to exports. > > Unemployment will rise, for sure. > > @Lordship 516 - That all makes sense, expect the > bit about resistance to exports, which I don't > think I've quite grasped. Would some exports not > be boosted at least, by the falling value of the > pound? Unless & until we have an agreement with the EU & other treaties in place then there will be a resistance to exports [resistance to imports to other countries] This is an uncertainty factor as well as an actual effect & will affect stocks & bonds.

15:40 signatories 8,777 with 108 from Dulwich & West Norwood. 235 from France !

???? Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Still amazed that your models and analysis can do > so much on now 12 days data ( including none on > economic growth, employment, inflation, consumer > spending at an aggregate etc etc) on a scenario, > Brexit, of which we have no precedent and your > modelling is based on no assumptions. Mmmmmmmm. You continue to misunderstand what modelling is - it is not a model like a mathematical or scientific proposition; there is no final result as the criteria are being refined continually. Sometimes all we have available are interpolation [Matlab] & extrapolation [different from assumptions] that are very sophisticated tools in the right hands but these are further interrogated & refined. What we get is not a best guess of a model of the economy but a set of options or brackets that can be used for further discussion & analysis. If you look for a finite result it is rarely available but policy makers might opt for a set of assumptions that are then inputted into the model for simulation - this informs them of the likely consequences of their policy decisions - people often blame modelers but the old adage obtains - rubbish in, rubbish out. Companies will opt for their own assumptions with the resultant being options that they can use as a reference when implementing their policies or decisions. Unintended consequences can also rear their ugly head if the wrong questions or inputs are utilized. This is where the experience comes into play. As to sharing data - this is confidential commercial information but there are lots of data coming out every day & plenty of statements that can be quantified, not in an accurate finite manner but we can put a cap & collar on them; so that is good data that can later be refined, narrowing our interpretation. None of the current statements being made by candidates are reliable as they are making statements for purposes that are not relevant to the real economy. The point I would make is that the Treasury & BoE have as much data [& more] and they can see exactly what I can see. I can guarantee it scares the poop out of them. When all these party shenanigans are over, you will hear the harsh truths & the language will change.

Loz Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Lordship 516 Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Loz Wrote: > > > -------------------------------------------------- > > > > Lordship 516 Wrote: > > > > > > -------------------------------------------------- > > > > > I haven't used a spreadsheet since the 90s, > very rarely get excited about economics & have > access > > > > to a SPARC T4 midrange computer [64 bit] > linked to a SPARC M7 minicluster [256 bit] > running > > > > customized software. > > > > > > You bought servers with a 256 bit processors? > > > > That would be special. Like the only ones in > the > > > world... > > > > Not bought - that would be silly & a waste of > good money - access, read the post. > > Actual 64 bit per processor in a cluster that > performs at 256 bits. > > Word sizes really don't work like that. And > anyway, would be entirely unnecessary (and very > wasteful) unless you are dealing with more than > 16.8 million terabytes of RAM. > > > & yes it is special - even the highest > performing PCs couldn't run data near fast > > enough to produce output that is meaningful > > No, it's a pretty bog-standard, off-the-shelf > piece of kit. Yes, it will be much faster than a > PC, but most servers are. Reuters, for instance, > would have kit that makes that look like a > development rig. > > The software is probably more impressive than the > hardware, but you have said little about that. My hardware guys are very happy with the kit, it is specifically set up to crunch numbers & large datasets - it runs 24/7/365 with a lot of redundancy to ensure virtual 100% uptime. We switched from UNIX to Linux years ago and are always refining that. We looked at leasing time on a Cray but it didn't offer any advantage except parallel processing & eats up money. We now have parallel processing available within Fortran 2008 using extensions. Of course Reuters & any enterprise would have much more robust kit but ours is very dedicated - lean & mean. We use many suites of software, some of them doing specialised work but all feed into a customized program that we have developed over 40 years in FORTRAN. We use Fortran 2008, C++11, Julia, Matlab, Mathematica & Python; if we were starting out again we would probably still commit to Fortran 2008 but that is mainly based on the fact that we are older guys who program in Fortran like it is our mother tongue - sometimes we strip out redundant lines of code or insert routines of our own. We are looking at Trilinos as a possibility for specialized work in the future but that's a decision for younger guys & girls. It also depends on what you are modelling. Macro models require many inputs & blocks that might be resolved using a different program - our approach is incremental & modular; we generally use naive programming strategies but will also use a preprocessor to generate some FORTRAN statements[repetitive or complicated]. For corporate work we would use a different approach as might suit the circumstances. Thats enough technical rubbish - too boring for EDF readers.

miga Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I don't know about you guys, but I'm very wary of > getting into any kind of major house project or > large purchase at the moment, and this is a > sentiment echoed by colleagues, who are talking > about whittling down debt rather than spending. > That's exactly what snowballs into a larger > slowdown. Not only you & your friends & colleagues but also most companies will go risk averse & delay/cancel spending and investment, hitting demand and employment levels. Bank liquidity could improve but for all the wrong reasons.

miga Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I don't know about you guys, but I'm very wary of > getting into any kind of major house project or > large purchase at the moment, and this is a > sentiment echoed by colleagues, who are talking > about whittling down debt rather than spending. > That's exactly what snowballs into a larger > slowdown. Not only you & your friends & colleagues but also most compamies will go risk averse & delay/cancel spending and investment, hitting demand and employment levels. Bank liquidity could improve but for all the wrong reasons. Balance sheet good, P&L crap. Share prices ?

WorkingMummy Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > "wrong belief that everyone is going to be > deported". > > Yesterday, May confirmed that the status of EU > citizens in this country is not guaranteed and it > is one of the things that will need to be > negotiated. Contrast this with Angela Merkel's deputy... Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel suggested that Germany could offer citizenship to young Britons, saying they shouldn?t be punished by the majority that voted to leave the European Union in the U.K. referendum. ?They wanted to stay in Europe because they know the world is changing and the U.K. can?t go it alone", Gabriel said in a speech to a Social Democratic Party conference in Berlin on Saturday. ?So it?s a good sign that young people in Britain are smarter than their strange political elite.?

Seabag Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > This 'grey' period we're in is damaging, in that > the effect will be corrosive beyond measure > > And the thing you can't buy, trade and or quantify > is momentum. And we're loosing ours rapidly I'm > saddened to say > > I'm still reeling from the fact that the > government (bunch of c-nuts) even considered a > vote at all > > But here we find ourselves Seabag - couldn't agree with you more. Also, it will be more than loss of momentum [deceleration] but a decline. General level of prices in an economy increases = Inflation, not quite hyperinflation but abnormally high Production of goods and services in the economy slows down or even starts to decline = Stagnation Both at the same time = Stagflation Prolonged stagflation = Depression When inflation rises, purchasing power is diminished. The resultant drop in consumer spending has a negative effect on stock and bond prices that will be further affected by a resistance to exports. Unemployment will rise, for sure. Impact of unemployment = reduced revenue. Reduced revenue leads to more borrowing. Antidote to depression is more government debt More borrowing leads to demand for repayment which leads to more borrowing or increased taxes Increased taxes leads to reduced demand which leads to slow down in production which induces stagflation Its a vicious spiral, a perverse result that will run contrary to what was originally intended by the Brexiteers. These little Ingerlanders [scotland & NI voted the other way] appear to have imagined that they were embarking on a new golden age for the UK. Many innocent citizens will pay dearly for all their lives for their ill thought out escapade. We will have our 'freedom' back - free to enjoy lower incomes, lower standards of living, less mobility - we will have lots of freedoms - enjoy ! Timing to recover from stagflation - 10 years ? Certainly not 2 to 4 years.

Politicians are like the packaging on food, the message needs to be clear & the attitude positive & certain. The real work will be carried out by civil servants with contributions from other experts including diplomats & lawyers. Politicians can sometimes act as facilitators & negotiate logjams & points of principle that civil servants cannot agree on - this requires the politicians to develop a good rapport with politicians from other countries. Markets are sensitive to every little nuance so Politicians ought to be careful about their language which can sometimes spook markets that will watch for any little clue about anything. Managing Johnson would have been a nightmare, same with Gove; Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom would be very good for this role.

Moving quite nicely already this morning - definitely 10,000 by end of day Then on to 100,000 & beyond