Lordship 516

The Chancellor is reporting that he abandoned plans to balance the government's budget by the end of the decade, blaming uncertainty surrounding Britain's exit from the European Union. This is totally false - this plan had long ago failed. In the 2015 Autumn Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published forecasts that allowed the Chancellor to declare his policies had been a huge success. The ?27billion windfall that he reported appeares to have evaporated. These forecasts are long gone and of course Osborne is now looking to place blame elsewhere. In April, before Brexit became a prospect, this year and every year of this parliament, growth was expected to be a lot lower and borrowing to be higher. Osborne then admitted he had broken his fiscal rule that debt as a share of GDP would fall this year, and admitted there would be a higher debt burden in every year of the forecast. He expected to borrow ?56billion in 2016-17 compared with ?50billion that was forecast in November. ?39billion in 2017-18, up from the ?25billion forecast earlier and for 2018-19 ?21billion, up from the ?5billion originally forecast in November. The deficit was supposed to be zero by 2015. On top of all this failure, Osborne took money from the disabled to fund tax cuts for the rich. Over half a million people with disabilities have lost over ?1 billion in Personal Independence Payments, with Capital Gains Tax being cut ? Osborne had raised raised this in 2010 saying it was necessary to create a fairer tax system. So he redefined his view of a fairer tax system, with a third of savings he finds coming from cuts to the disabled. I watched him during the debate on this and he was actually laughing openly - no gravitas, no compassion - disgraceful ! If this smug grinning carapace is allowed to continue the UK is doomed to failure. His brand of austerity has resulted in deflation which has depressed the UK economy. Now we will have high unemployment, significant reduction in investment, spending, general level of priceS rising due to the purchasing power of currency-money falling, instead of price inflation due to a general increase in demand - this will develop into stagflation for which there are few levers available either to the Bank of England or the Exchequer to correct. Now Osborne has found a convenient hook to hang his failures on. He is madly tweeting, twisting in the wind about how he factored all this into his plans and how he can lead us out of this unholy mess - this is total ****ocks ! This man has zero integrity, zero scruples to tell the truth to the UK population - dissimulation is his stock in trade. He has no shame and I sincerely hope he will not remain as Chancellor. In fact, I hope the new PM, whoever they might be will rule him out for any office of government as he has shown himself to be a sociopath devoid of any feelings, honesty or morality - a fitting fellow traveler for Gove, Johnson et al.

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Hi ???? I am not suggesting that the EU or individual countries will want to shut out the UK or be unnecessarily tough with us; however, those people who are saying that the UK has a stronger card are in cloud cuckoo land. The other problems we will suffer more from than the EU are uncertainty & time. The macro conditions are against us and the volatility will affect us more than the EU. The politicians appear not to understand this - no point in playing hardball with people who have most of the cards. Even if a deal is done that is suitable to both sides, the timing will hurt the UK much more than the EU. They have much more critical mass & flexibility. Their GDP 10 trillion Euro; ours 2.6 billion Euro. There is a need to engage in a mutually advantageous trade deal without histrionics or side issues. Movement of people, goods, capital & services will have to be on a mutual basis also & this will be difficult to square with the aspirations of the Brexiteers. I was at a private event today where a very eminent lady [EU committee chairperson] participated and her take was that what will transpire in the end won't be anything like what the Brexiteers imagine, hinting that the UK will end up with what we have now but with the immigration element moderated somewhat and applying to all of the EU. However, the UK will cease to have influence in the various institutions for the future.

Hi ???? Am personally very cheerful & comfortable - however, it is always a given that things will improve, even after 1929 - it's just a question of when, some people can wait it out but many people will suffer in the meantime. I don't see any conditions whereby this will improve anytime soon & I am talking about 2 to 4 years & up to 10 years. Many people, including dealers & politicians appear to think that the only cost of money is the interest rate. For an economy & even a company there are many more costs involved in borrowing. There is a risk of depreciation [both physical & financial] once that money has been converted into goods or intangibles. There are also exchange losses that can result. Uncertainty will exacerbate all these. Stimulus coupled with rising unemployment & inflation is a toxic mix and this is where political uncertainty is the detonator that will cause stagnation. Once stagnation takes hold it takes years to shake off - ask anyone who was around in the 70s or any Japanese banker. I think this is where we are headed for in the medium term and it was entirely avoidable. No point pumping if the banks won't/can't lend, companies won't/can't borrow, households stop spending - this all spells disaster for growth. Without growth there will be a contraction. All economists bar the looney ones will tell you likewise. The UK is a significant market for Europe but they can get by without us, they'll catch a cold [nominal GDP 10 trillion Euro, EU exports to UK = 3% of their GDP or 12% of their exports, not negligible but not so dramatic either. Individual countries & companies might suffer but here are support mechanisms to cover that - we cannot get by without them in the medium term,the EU takes about 45% of our exports & most of it can be substituted from elsewhere - we will have a bad dose of the flu. We export $501million of bovine meat to the EU but Ireland can make that up easily as they export $913million of bovine meat to the UK & they will chase these markets aggressively [probably doing it now], with support of the EU & the Irish Government. Any traditional markets lost are usually lost forever. Politicians need to examine the practical detail before they face up to the EU. We don't hold such a good hand as people might like you to think. We need a deal & we need it sooner rather than later. Unfortunately for us all, it appear that it will be much later. Was it worth it ? Only time can tell, but I think not.

Finished tonight on target 1116 On to tomorrow - forecast for 2,750 by midnight. Share - link - push.............>

Loz Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Green Goose Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > > Nothing much will change after Brexit. The stock > market has recovered completely from the dip this > > week and Sterling is coming back up nicely > also. > > The FTSE100 has. The FTSE250 - which is a better > reflection of UK companies - is still well down. > > > The pound is still in the toilet - at a 30 year > low against the USD. On what planet is it 'coming > up nicely'?? Planet Farage with its two moons Borisconi & Gove Minimus

None of the usual economic guru suspects are saying anything about the economic outlook. Carney was very reassuring but didn't give any forecasts as he has no basis at this time. He knows that price inflation will occur; he also knows that production will fall and employment will be affected; he also indicated that he MIGHT engage in more quantitative easing but defined it as making sure BANKS had easy access to credit - doesn't follow the banks will lend it on to businesses. Increasing money supply coupled with slowdown in growth of goods, due to reduced demand & increased unemployment, will bring inflation. Uncertainty is the enemy of economic stability - we have policy-related uncertainty, rather than economic uncertainty but policy uncertainty is common and often transitory - however if it persists, it may induce greater economic uncertainty than we have had already. We need to create policy stability quickly which looks to be unlikely - if not maybe we are heading back to the 1970s - stagflation, who knows ? It's an unholy mess. By the way - I'm an optimist !

Impossible to evaluate the issue of house prices because the data is always imperfect in real time. It takes 3 to 6 months to get real information from house completions via the Land Registry & the regional variations are quite different also as are the different areas of London. The Nationwide & Halifax indices are skewed indices & whereas they show a trend they are not accurate as they don't compare like for like and their samples are too small. Estate agents & even chartered surveyors never tell the actuality as they are forever trying to pump the market for one reason or another so their immediate feedback must always be suspect. What matters at the moment is lenders' attitude or sentiment towards lending & I would suggest that this is negative at the moment. Bankers are chappies who will give you an umbrella if the sun is shining but they want it back if there is a hint of rain. Valuers will also be very cautious and they will mark prices down just in case. So prices will be depressed, probably until early next year at least. The Eurostat HPI is not useful for consumers as it compiles statistics as a feed into Macroeconomic models to provide early warning to flag up possible imbalances. By the time the information is available the market has moved on - up, down or flat. This is what I do for a living. Houses are for living in, not for investment. Property investment needs particular conditions in order to thrive - now is not the time to move or invest unless you can afford to lose money or wait out the downturn - this is normally referred to as gambling - property roulette.

It gets worse - as 5 jobs will result in greater income for the exchequer through income tax, National Insurance & extra Vat on goods & services [from increased spending], there is also the added premium of less welfare being distributed or leaving more money available for more needy services such as the NHS. This has a serious effect on the national budget. Most of the spending is distributed locally which adds to the feelgood factor and this reduces crime, improves education, health & general welfare. It all documented, so no need to dismiss this issue as a temporary blip that can be recovered from - every FDI job lost is usually gone forever - at least 25 years.

Yes GG - this affects us all. Every job lost means 4 more jobs in total unsupported. Read the multiplier principle in your economics text book & you will learn about direct impact, indirect impact & induced impacts, not to mention what is known as 'stickiness' - once you attract the right type of jobs they tend to stay long term as they don't wish to leave well trained staff behind. Other countries are hunting as we chat ! Once gone they can never be attracted back, mostly due to stickiness at another location. Not sure what to call this Brexit economics - Borisonomics, Govenomics or Faragonomics - ignorant louts the lot of them ! I have another word for it but I fear I would be banned on here if I used it - it ends in 'x' with two 'o's somewhere

You cannot combine both trade unions just to get a result that suits your argument 22.47% voted to go on strike 75.51% exercised their freedom not to vote Total electorate Dulwich & West Norwood 113,754 Voter Turnout 51,362 Helen Hayes 27,772 % of electorate that voted for her 24.41% Much the same for most MPs but no one claims they are not legitimately elected Abstension = acceptance of result

I think she is just playing to the conservative right wing gallery to peel votes away from Gove, knowing full well this would be impossible

I have only a very small sample of data to go on but if this keeps developing we will reach 1,100 by midnight tonight, 3000 by midnight tomorrow night, 7,500 by midnight Saturday & over 15,000 by midnight Sunday I was correct about the 45/hour figure earlier - These figures may be wildly out as the sample is small but I will keep sampling the numbers every three hours to collect more data & refine the projections each day. The current progression would give us over 100,000 by next Wednesday & over 1 million by next weekend [midnight 9th July]. If we get to that point it will be noticed & a different dynamic will kick in. More sharing - more links - more push...

..or wildlife

Of course with links & shares ED users will have a broader reach than just locally

Click on "Show on a map" & scroll to expand it Scroll down to "Get petition data (json format)" at the end of the main page You have to search for the number under "GB" For the last three hours it has been running at 45/hour - hopefully this will grow to 60/hour this evening as more people are at home.

Dulwich & west Norwood is showing 16 signatures - very little since this morning's 6 :(

They would have all sorts of rights that they can exercise during the next couple of years & also their dependents so this would get very complicated. Its not a bananna republic...yet.

Now 842 with 802 from UK - running at 48 per hour now ! Keep sharing please !

How could anyone depend on any promise that Gove will give. He made many promises during the referendum and has backed away from these & is now trying to give a different version of events to the country. He gave his support to BJ & walked away because he couldn't get the assurances he wanted - to me it is quite clear he wanted his preferred job most of all. Nope - his promises are just political chaff - will be dispersed in the winds of time whenever it will be expedient to do so. "Events, my dear boy, events." Another Brexecution is on the cards, hopefully.

Currently 746 with 708 from UK - still running at 30 per hour

Maybe Gove is simply placing himself advantageously so he can negotiate a good position - he has form with Theresa May over the Trojan Horse schools episode in Birmingham so he couldn't expect any favours from Theresa May without some leverage. Also Gove had to apologise for comparing EU economic experts to Nazis - they won't forget that in Brussels. He appears to have a loose tongue - maybe he ought to have stuck with the comedy ?

Anyway, it was Osborne who ruled himself out. Theresa May is ideally placed to negotiate an immigration policy that will be suitable for the UK. She did a reasonably good job under difficult conditions & now she can put that experience to good use during discussions in Brussels & elsewhere.

Yes, I agree; This is the wrong forum as there will be many that will feel sensitive and be offended. If someone need this then there are other places to engage with people of similar attitude. I apologize if my [unnecessary] comment caused any offence - it was flip & unthinking.

It also depends on the subject. My son is a maths teacher & he concentrates on stretching his students individually. He has less preparation to do as his subject is very structured & defined and teaching plans can endure for years. However he spends a lot of time marking & analyzing where/how each pupil is going wrong & then has to work out how to correct this across a class of 30+ students whilst still progressing with the normal syllabus load. Other subjects have their own challenges and are subject to constant changes & CPD challenges - no easy at all.