Lordship 516

???? Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Where I agree with you entirely Lordhip is on the > uncertainty - I don't think we should even have > an election yet because of this just get on and > get some heads of agreement on Brexit negotiated. Sure ???? - this is the single most destabilizing factor that we have in play at the moment. An election would only fuel further uncertainty. For a developed economy like the UK/EU, in the current circumstances it doesn't matter a great deal which leader or which party will be in place - what matters in economic terms is as you say - get on with it. Cameron ought to have stayed in place & got on with it - his resignation has caused further uncertainty.

Loz Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Lordship 516 Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > I haven't used a spreadsheet since the 90s, very > rarely get excited about economics & have access > > to a SPARC T4 midrange computer [64 bit] linked > to a SPARC M7 minicluster [256 bit] running > > customized software. > > You bought servers with a 256 bit processors? > That would be special. Like the only ones in the > world... Not bought - that would be silly & a waste of good money - access, read the post. Actual 64 bit per processor in a cluster that performs at 256 bits. All I care about is results that are fast &reliable. & yes it is special - even the highest performing PCs couldn't run data near fast enough to produce output that is meaningful

:)) stay well ! As I said there is a lot of data spewing out every day from many sources, plus we have some more advertised public statements. Interest rate, QE proposed, currency trend developing daily, unemployment, price rises, energy models which are reasonably predictable, etc. etc... If you have the feeds & know where to look there is plenty of data and all modelers have alliances that mutually share data in a similar manner like the BoE poll banks & financial institutions. No man is an island, not even the Treasury. Models are not single outputs but multiple iterations that are then reduced to more intelligent scenarios - this is where the skill, experience & expertise comes into it.

Blah Blah Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I'm with you Lordship. What we need is someone > with the balls in government to say the price will > be too high, and send it to parliament for a > deciding vote for the good of the economy. I am > also pretty sure this is why there is all the talk > of agreeing a plan with the EU before triggering > article 50 (even though the EU are not so keen on > that). But people like Gove have wind in their > sails and are determined to take us down this road > to who knows what. And note, that yet again, > contenders for the Tory leadership are making > promises about how Brexit will go, without any > evidence to support that. > > Of all the interviews given the morning after the > result, Mark Carney looked the most troubled - and > there's very good reason for that. We all know that a politician's promise is as sincere as a kiss from a lady of the night. They will promise anything to get the vote and turn later "after serious consideration & wide consultation" HAH ! Carney does look troubled, said little of substance & besides the weather here is pretty lousy. During the last global meltdown he anticipated the difficulties & engaged in a dual expansionary policy of low interest rates with increased liquidity in the system and outperformed all the G7 with Canada returning to pre-crisis levels before any other G7 country. This will not work here under the conditions that currently exist in the UK. Maybe the best bet would be to distribute a Citizen's Dividend where the quantitative easing money would be distributed evenly to all citizens/residents with NI numbers. This would be a direct injection into the economy but the weakness would be if most people would just save it. Strange times ahead.

00:40 - 6854 [average 341 from 09:41] It will probably reach 10,000 by tomorrow night & 100,000 by the 12th We need a few more shares like you arranged today to expand it.

I presume they are using some form of SQL database & using .json to migrate the data to the web in HTML format. SQL will filter out duplicate email addresses. I presume that they will allow a number of signatories from the same IP address/post code - a family or numbers of workers from the same company.

muffins78 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I can see your splitting something out but I can't > see where you are getting the data :) > > I assume the non uk ones are not allowed even if > expats? > > We are going between 300 to 400 a hour now! :) I'm assuming foreign IP addresses will be filtered out as we need to ensure that we are talking about a qualified population of signatories. Scroll down to just under the deadline date to [Get petition data (json format)] and find the GB data - that will give it to you.

muffins78 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Why are your numbers different to mine? Hi Muffin - I only record the UK signatories & take a reading every three hours. End of my day is 00:40 Reading at 21:40 was 6,073 currently 6,352

???? Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Anyway, see the other thread. I don't understand > how you've done any modelling on 11 days data on > which the only hard data you have is the exchange > rate. It's a bullshit model or has massive heroic > assumptions - what are your inputs? Just your > assumptions I'm presuming as we've no hard datA > yet on anything ( other than the ?) There is a plethora of data - no point in discussing this with you in detail & besides this is how I make my living so why would I display my data sources or hard analysis. All I suggest is that we are heading for a very, very hard landing if we continue with Brexit & should be more accommodating in regard to our attitude to negotiating with the EU. Best option for me is to break out of the Brexit straight-jacket. Parliament vote to stay in and let The Brexiteers squeal. Some MPs will lose their seats but they will have fulfilled their oath of office and patriotic duty to defend the UK - history will applaud them.

???? Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > So where's your data to input for the last 11 > days? How have your models calibrated anything > other than guess work to come out with these > scenarios? We don't know do we? We have no > meaningful data yet? So you have made heroic > assumptions or you haven't actually used any > models? Any sensible model - and I think that's an > oxymoron - needs data. The only conceivable way > you could have done this is by making massive > assumptions on say interest rates, trade levels, > the value of the ? as 11 days gives you no > meaningful data does it? There's plenty of meaningful data, some of it finite, some structured, some unstructured - the skill is to analyse, interpret & quantify it. Your concept of a model is too narrow. A model doesn't define actuals like you might imagine, but what models can do is define limits & options, even if some of the data is imperfect. any model might have hundreds of iterations and this is where the analytical skill comes into play. The tracking of the pound and other currencies over the last 11 days has been quite useful in providing us with limits might be and what options are open and what options are closed. That is what a model can provide. To go further - sure, we need more data but this will be collected on a real-time basis whether we are asleep or awake and analysed by algorithims that will then be interrogated as to their integrity so the resultant data is fed into the model & analysis will provide a reasonably robust result. The result is not real life - the mistake is to define it as such. I never use assumptions, except when asked by a client to do 'what-if' scenarios & then test all the data ab initium.

???? Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I think you and Jaywalker should be on the MPC > forthwith - your talents are wasted on the EDF. > > In other news, two blokes with a spreadsheet and > "The Dummy's Guide to Economics" get very excited. Now who is the patronizer. I haven't used a spreadsheet since the 90s, very rarely get excited about economics & have access to a SPARC T4 midrange computer [64 bit] linked to a SPARC M7 minicluster [256 bit] running customized software. Our group can outgun any university except for MIT. Sorry to boast a little but you provoked that. What does get me excited are incompetant, unfeeling & negligent politicians and those that run with them. People are not statistics but bad statistics can ruin people's lives.

???? Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Ok try this > > We have no real negotiation strength - we do > The EU can fix individual members problems that > occur as a result of Brexit - on what evidence? > Greece? > The world can be explained by models.......oh yes > Trade deals can't be put together quickly - they > can actually > The EU doesn't want to get to a workable > compromise - of course they do > A 'Brexit' type scenario has never happened so how > do your models build that in? > > I've said we are going to have economic hardship, > largely as a result of uncertainty, my point is > that if we get on with it, things won't be as bad > as your models suggest Everyone around a table has negotiating strength, otherwise they wouldn't be there; however, ours is not as strong as some suggest. The EU did provide a fix for Greece but they didn't accept it. Ireland accepted it even though they were treated despicably by the German banks but they accepted the bitter pill and exited in 2012/2013 with more local recovery being worked on. The solution was provided by the EU that had the critical mass to provide it. Modelling cannot explain the world - it is merely a tool that can be used to inform options & aid risk reduction. People like politicians & even some economists that try to use their favoured iterations of a model do so at their own risk - they will have been informed of this in advance by any responsible econometrist. Trade deals cannot be put together quickly - we will just have to disagree on this. The EU will want to get a workable compromise - we can agree on this but it may be very short of the mark that the UK will want under a Conservative government. Knowing the Brexit result informs the model, various iterations can show the effects of the various shocks, currency values, price rises, unemployment, timings etc etc. From this we can derive options that can inform strategies & decisions. We are in agreement in regard to the economic hardship that is unfolding; unfortunately 'we' are not getting on with it as politicians have decided to continue political uncertainty, so the models [not my models] show that it will be quite a lot worse than you suggest. We are entering into a time of stagflation with the compponents [as always] unknown so it is difficult to fend it off.

???? Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Was that the modelling that failed to predict the > financial crisis in 2008 - whereas as some more > observational economist called it right? was that > the Modelling that in the late 80s said the Yen > was about to become the global currency and Japan > would overtake the US in the early 90s. Modelling > is flawed because it tries to rationalise > irrational behaviour, tries to simplify the > complex and basis future predictions on past > outcomes. Economics is dismal as a science and > there's plenty of empirical evidence to back that > up. > > Where does my attitude mirror Gove's? you are > confusing an argument that things might not be so > bad with a dogma, never what I was trying to do. > Remove the red mist. I VOTED REMAIN - take that > in. ???? You didn't read my comment with a clear mind. Modelling does fail when you interpret the results as gospel or dogma. Modelling takes place after observation & deduction to test hypotheses and the results of the model have to be tested in order to reduce the risks inherent in the model itself. This is why more than one model has to be used. A madel cannot be tested in real life like you can within engineering or science so you have to run many iterations before you can eventually arrive at a set of options or sometimes reject a set of options. What modelling cannot show or forecast are disruptions in the normal market. What you categorize as irrational behaviour is a subjective view. No one can forecast what another government or central bank might do whether it might be Japan or the US. Any econometrist who uses historical data is going to fail. You have to use the most up to date data that you can get and sometimes have to evaluate missing micro data inputs by using other mathematical tools such as topology which is a uniquely revealing tool when used discretely. There has also been advances in handling Big Data, both structured & unstructured. Modelling has moved a long way since the Yen in the 90s & the melt down of 2008. Both of these crises [crimes] were caused by rogue bankers that thought they could magic money from thin air. Current modelling has these elements factored into them and that is why stress testing is so important for all financial institutions. I apologise if you felt I was patronising you - I was criticizing you because, like Gove et al, you appear to think we are in a strong position because all the available evidence points to the opposite. We are entering into uncertain territory for an undetermined length of time and have no treaties in place so in the interim we have to trade with the rest of the world on WTO terms - this will hurt companies revenue, unemployment will increase, the pound will further devalue, prices will increase by 7% to 8% [energy by even more], local demand will reduce to the level of necessity. 2 to 3 million unemployed is a bit high but 1.5 million extra unemployed is on the cards by the end of three years. I called the troubles of the early 80s, the 90s & even called the problems for the mid noughties but couldn't tie it down as to its quantum or year. But my clients used my strategies and avoided greater losses than many others. On negotiation - this is where I spend most of my time with clients who won't make any decision without weighing up the consequences. It is all about risk reduction & knowing when to say yes & when to say no. I provide options, both positive & negative - others do the deals. I describe it as me [& my colleagues] providing the box - the dealers put the lid on it & the lawyers tie it up nicely with nice ribbons. UK PLC need to fashion the box, send competent people to fashion the lid and then the lawyers can tie up the ribbons.

jaywalker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > One of the problems of the vertical 'Phillips' > curve we are about to ascend is that it is a > one-way street: every time we have had stagflation > before, the 'natural rate' of unemployment has > shifted out (further attempts to move back just > shifting it further). So you get an increase in > unemployment of 1.5m, then the policy response > shifts that to 3m. That is because when you get to > the top (inflation in double digits) interest rate > panic ensues (Carney sacked, Treasury takes back > control, interest rates in double digits). This > time I fear the financial fragility is such that > it could be rather more than 3m (of course you can > then take the Zimbabwe route if you want). At last someone sensible - I concur with Jaywalker on the scale. My numbers are a bit different but not so far apart. I think the Treasury will know this as will Carney. To sack Carney would be an act of vandalism and only cause more mayhem. Carney didn't cause the problem but the MPC could make a big mistake and he would be blamed. The biggest problem for now is political uncertainty. Stagflation is a dangerous condition - a bit like a rogue rocket; if you try to steer it it usually ricochets off in a direction you don't anticipate or want.

6:40 signatures were 5,040 running at 307/hour for the last 3 hours [19:40 - 5,333] End of day 12:40 for my data collection - I forecast about 6,200 signatures Much of this will be from the initial push + the Sunday day-off effect. Lets see what tomorrow will bring - this will help me evaluate the rest of the week So, now I expect 10,000 by Wednesday - I hope to provide a forecast for 100,000 by midnight tomorrow [guess Tues 12th ?]

???? I take it you are not an economist ? or, if you are, you haven't done much modelling ? If you had like I have been doing for the last 10 days you would get quite a fright - no scenario looks too pretty & I have run many using the treasury model, the Oxford model & the LSE model. I ignore the CBI model as it is not comprehensive enough. I have tested these upside down & inside out running models 24 hours a day & in particular for existing clients who have already made business decisions or narrowed options using the analysis. Modelling is not the be-all & end-all but it does give reasonable indications about what will happen under differing scenarios. When you factor in the time-lag due to negotiation the result looks very ugly for the UK but the scenario for most of the EU is not as bad as that for the UK. Your attitude parallels Gove & Co's and is not conducive to good business or negotiation. Sure 'they' would miss us but not as much as we will miss them. They would find it difficult to find substitute markets for the VWs, BMs & Mercs but so also would we for the Range Rovers & Jags etc. They have their trade treaties in place, we do not. Of course the US, Australia, India & even Ireland have already approached the UK making nice noises but treaties take time that we cannot afford the luxury of. Take the case of Ireland - the UK exports about 6 billion Euro of goods & services to Ireland & imports about 20 billion euro worth of good & services. On first examination Ireland looks vulnerable but when examined in detail you will see that many of the exports from Ireland are unique - pharmaceuticals, software, orthopedic & medical instruments - the UK needs these and cannot source them elsewhere. On the other hand most of the UK exports can be sourced from within Ireland or the EU. If we lose even that little market it will be gone forever whereas Ireland will have a bit of a tough time but as they have shown since 2008 they are a resilient bunch and will prosper without us. I know these people well and they will just buckle down and work their way through the problem. Just look at the German attitude to young Britons in Germany - they are offering full citizenship; on the other hand UK politicians are threatening to deport EU citizens. The nasty party at work again. We need to get off our high horse & either relent to remain or else do a mutually suitable trade deal with Europe fast. We have a little over 2 tears but in the meantime it will be hardship for many - not Armageddon but many will suffer and this was avoidable. However, stagflation will happen - all the ingredients have been put in place by default and there is little that can reverse that.

red devil Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Going by your earlier prediction Lordy, are you > sure you don't work for the Treasury?... Hi RD - didn't cop the irony at first - my prediction last night was spot on but today we had a welcome disruption so I have no reliable data set that I can use. Impossible to calculate any rate of change - I can only evaluate by interpolation [hopefully intelliegent !] but I will be able to preict more by the end of Monday & firm it up by the end of Wednesday. If we get more positive disruptions then that will change it radically and make us all a bit happy. My next read is at 18:40 so lets see what that will be.

???? Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Lordship I'll get back later more considered but > just one Cut & paste about the trade thing as an > EG: > > The U.K. is by far Germany's most profitable > export market. Last year, Germany's trade surplus > with the U.K. came in at 51 billion euros ($56 > billion), accounting for 34 percent of the German > surplus with the EU. That surplus was also 42 > percent higher than the German trade surplus with > France, Berlin's largest European trade partner. > > With its 89.3 billion euro worth of exports to the > U.K. last year, Britain is Germany's third-largest > export market, after the U.S. and France. > > Will Germany give this up by shutting the U.K. out > of a free-trade agreement with the EU? Of course > it won't. > > And here is another interesting story. You > probably heard the Germans boasting about their > booming China trade. Here is how booming that is: > Last year, German exports to the U.K. were 25 > percent higher than its sales to China. The big > difference being that Germans made a huge surplus > with the U.K., but their China trade recorded a 20 > billion euro deficit ? a fourfold increase from > the deficit in 2014. > > No wonder that Chancellor Merkel keeps saying that > there is no need to be "nasty" with the U.K., > while reassuring her compatriots that she would > negotiate the U.K.'s exit from the EU with a great > attention to German interests. Segments of industries in individual countries will suffer but this is asymmetric. For these issues in EU countries it will have a limited micro effect but got the UK it will do macro damage. Europe has many ways out and has trade treaties already in place - the UK has not. Individual EU countries can substitute UK supply with supply from within the EU whch will at the same time absorb cut-off UK demand for another UK country [see bovine meat example above] & also supply & demand possibly at a better price from third countries. The UK will be in survival mode for many years, making do with whatever they can get by way of either supply or demand. So there is more pressure on the UK & grandstanding like Gove & co are posturing just will not work. The EU is a very organized, sophisticated operating organism and it will just roll over the UK if we adopt a tough stance. The fact is we are in trouble & we need as many friends as we can get, including the EU.

Would never work for that lot - I am just a simple numbers guy & wedded to the truth so I wouldn't find favour there , I afraid !

jaywalker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Blah Blah Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > We've shut down racism before and we can do it > > again. In a few months time, when nothing > towards > > brexit has happened and the news is about > > something else, some of those who feel > confident > > now will fade away. And the rest of us should > > carry on challenging descrimination where we > find > > it, just as we always have. > > The problem is that the brexit vote HAS happened. > In a few months time the rapidly deepening > recession will be visible (together with inflation > from the falling pound). Stagflation. Do you think > this is avoidable now? Really if you do you are > trapped in some kind of 'business as usual' > mindset. Why do you think the BofE has announced > monetary loosening and the Treasury a fiscal free > for all? Those who felt legitimated by this > dreadful referendum to act so appallingly will > then have not just the 'insult' that the > government is (rightly) not actually going to > implement the immigration controls they fantasised > about but also further economic repression. I am > personally in despair about all this. See my commentary under post "MP Details please" Stagflation is inevitable & I think Carney knows it. Reducing interest rates can only fan the flames & make it worse - the MPC are unlikely to sanction this & I think Carney hinted at that also. He only said this to gain space in the short term. Unemployment coming up with an increase of 1 million+ over the next two years - many immigrants will just want to leave as they will have no jobs. Price increases due to money devaluation coming at a rate of about 7% to 8% accompanied by a depression of sales as there will be less spending as people & companies save for a rainy day. Yep - stagflation like the 70s is about to hit & hopefully not an awful depression like the 30s. Stagflation for an economy is like a paralysis - almost impossible to eradicate. Everything a government might do will be on a wing & a prayer based on best guesses and probably on the backs of the poor & less abled as before. Capital will take flight to other currencies leading to further devaluation which will lead to further price rises which will lead to further job losses which will lead to reduction in demand which will lead to reduction of supply..........................& on....& on...& on to goodness knows when & goodness knows where. In the meantime people's lives will be blighted, opportunities missed, FDI will disappear elsewhere never to come back. This IS how serious it all is and MPs are squabbling about whose ego should dominate - greedy 'tards [any prefix will suffice]. Already there is political uncertainty that will turn into political stagnation as talks & posturing with the EU drag on & on and that is what will screw the whole world economy - it will be tough in the EU but it will be God-awful here in the UK. These Brexit burglers that Cameron allowed into our homes think that treaties & reciprocal arrangements will spring out of nowhere just to suit them at a time when most countries will become very defensive. With stagflation/deflation the UK will not look very appealing to any foreign country which will look to their own best interests and abandon the UK without as much as a backward glance. The membership of the EU cost approx ?2.80/head per week. The Brexit dash for sovereignty will cost many, many multiples of that for years to come - it is immeasurable for now but will mostly be measured by misery & unhappiness for lost generations. Acknowledgements to Johnson/Gove/Farage - thanks a bunch !

I worked in China for 7 years until 2012, my wife is Chinese. At that time a foreigner who wished to buy property had to have lived & worked in China & be in possession of a Registration Certificate for one year before they could purchase a property. This was relaxed last year but a foreigner is still restricted to buying one property in Beijing & Shanghai & then only to live in it. In other cities where there are plenty of vacant houses there are less limitations - the Chinese are not stupid, they just want your cash & they are likely to change the law at any time, so no security there. We ought to have restrictions in place. I was at a meeting where there was a director of a HA who refused to rule out selling in HK, Singapore & elsewhere. There is a slight restriction whereby properties have to be offered [advertised] first in the UK but the developers merely play a game with this and it is essentially not a restriction - only window dressing. Much of the time the agents sell off plan in Singapore, China, HK & Taiwan and you can see signs of 60% presold all over London. These are sometimes let out but quite often left empty. At 0.5% interest rate, these purchases are regarded as safer & more profitable than bank deposits. The Chancellor could bring in a restriction on foreign buyers that would limit their purchases to properties over ?2million or even ?3million. This would release quite a few lesser priced developments for UK purchasers & curb foreign purchases but developers would be unhappy as they want inflated land values & house sales. This won't happen as too many of Cameron/Osborne/Blair & co's mates & families are in the property 'game' which will continue in play. There is the annual ATED & CGT but the Chinese & other foreign buyers merely shrug their shoulders at that and keep buying - the annualized growth is more than they pay in Council Tax, ATED & CGT. For CGT they are happy to pay as this is only levied when they have realized a profit. Their play is security for their capital & capital growth. Up to now they have been happy to pay the Council Tax, often pay a managing agent to oversee security on empty properties and may swan over a couple of times a year to shop in Bond Street, attend Ascot or Wimbledon, attend Opera and/or hold the properties for their kids or relatives that will attend university here. I know several Chinese kids who are living in multi-million properties close to their university - no problem. I did consultancy work over there for FDI companies and also lectured in econometrics for a time at a Fudan/MIT program in Shanghai but it only lasted one year. I asked my wife's cousin who was a student what he reckoned the problem was and he told me that they thought my analysis was too "political"; they didn't like the truth to be too blatent - so not much different to the West or Westminter where you can only be favoured if you will pander to their ideology. I couldn't be bothered to deliver their message so I resigned. The City of London & the Barons of England have traditionally controlled land supply & values since the Middle Ages - this runs diametrically contrary to providing decent housing for all at a price that a normal worker can afford either to buy or rent. Until this issue is addressed in an enduring manner there will always be a housing shortage. There is also the parallel problem of immigration that puts further pressure on housing supply - immigration has largely been driven by a need for willing & trained workers. Skills training has been dumbed down for the last 25 years or so with the result that the Polish & other Eastern workers are now dominant not only in the construction industry but throughout the UK where skills are in demand - engineers, bakers, printers, hospitality etc. We need to get back to the traditional apprenticeships [not these 6 month & 12 month courses] and this will go a long way towards substituting immigration and also addressing young men's training that has been identified as a social problem.

uncleglen Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > How could you forget the Danes Lordship... Sorry Uncleglen - I left out lots, but I think people get my drift...

15:40 Now it is at 4118 - since this morning 9:40 it is running steadily at 396 per hour but I expect this to fall of this evening & also to run at a lower rate during the week. It all depends on the level of sharing & linking. The best projection I can give for 10,000 is by midnight Friday 8th & 100,000 by midnight Sunday 17th If we could ramp it up to millions this should be the target !

CORRECTION - I only count GB signatures Between last night & 12:40 pm we have seen exactly 1201 ADDED signatures to total 2930. Yesterday fell of a little but hopefully after all your good work it will pick up again. It's important that each signatory shares & links - this will give us exponential growth. Cheers !

Jah Lush Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > That's a superb summation of Osborne's failings > and reads like a furious letter to The Times. > Perhaps you should send it to them. Bravo. I am an analyst - an econometrist and generally try to reflect reality from the facts & statistics that I am presented with. I dislike most economists as they invariably talk down to the rest of humanity and usually get their forecasts wrong but have all their reasoning finely polished as to why they got it wrong. I dislike most politicians as they usually confuse the connect between microeconomics & macroeconomics, usually in an effort to justify their ideology that is always as fluid as the wind that they cast their words into. My work is always carried out dispassionately - if I do otherwise then I will get the wrong answer. Where my feelings & emotion come into it is when I see vulnerable lives devastated by cavalier politicians & the civil servants who implement uncaring policies and cause social divides in any country. If anyone wants to learn more about the rich & poor divide then read anything published by Thomas Piketty - he is not perfect but he is more rational than his detractors. The poor have only their labour which is taxed always. The rich bury their savings/profits into forms of capital that are sheltered from taxes by various methodologies until they decide to cash it in, usually at a very low rate of tax. The tax on labour is high & the tax on capital is very low - so the rich get progressively richer & the poor standstill or get poorer. There is also the divide between the secure versus the poor - that is workers at various levels who have security of tenure in their employment as opposed to those who are in unstable contracts and account for a rising share of workers. This is the opportunity that Cameron, Osborne & Gove et al pontificate about. The opportunity they offer is merely for the poor to be more useful to the rich in order that the rich can work less & gain more & more. There is an old economists joke - there are two types of statistics - "Those that you LOOK up & those that you MAKE up". GiddyGO belongs to the latter club.