Green Goose

Lordship 516 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > GG > > I note you 'had' a career with a major European > car manufacturer. I have a career in major > economic analysis across many industries > globally. > M'Lud, Since you have asked, I can confirm that I had a long, enjoyable and successful career with a major European car manufacturer and reached director level. It covered 4 decades, mostly spent outside the UK and I am now retired. Hence my interest in car exports/imports. Having negotiated major commercial contracts, I may just have a better appreciation of negotiating strategy than your average Joe. GG

Which one is the more likely to morph into another Thatcher?

Your Lordship, Please don't give up on a very interesting topic. It's close to my heart as I had a career with a major European vehicle manufacturer. In the absence of hard figuers rather than percentages, I did some Googling and turned up some interesting info from two reliable resources. They both put Germanys unit exports to the UK at around 810,000 pa and the UK is its biggest export market. Their "sales" are slightly bigger in the USA but they manufacture BMWs and Mercs there. The the two articles clearly support my view that the German car industry are terrified of a major upset to their UK market. https://next.ft.com/content/f6cda050-20bb-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79 About a fifth of all cars produced in Germany last year, or around 820,000 vehicles, were exported to the UK, making it the single biggest destination by volume. The German car industry has the most to fear of any sector. A study by the Bertelsmann Foundation in April forecast a 2 per cent fall in German car sales to the UK in the 12-year period following any exit of the UK from the EU. _________________________________________ http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661255/Carry-trading-beg-German-car-bosses-Manufacturers-demand-Britain-allowed-continue-trading-EU-without-barriers.html Germany sells more cars to Britain than to any other country, with 810,000 exported last year, Mr Wissman said. And half of the 2.6million cars made in Britain last year were built by German-owned firms such as BMW, which runs Mini and Rolls-Royce. Mr Wissman said: ?We should do everything we can to ensure that this success story will be continued. Now it is up to Brussels to take action.? That progresses the matter of German car exports. The French export heaps (appropriate??) of Peugeots and Citreon Renaults to the uK and they have no manufacturing prescence here.So they would be very vulnerable if I was leading the negotiations. Turning to the wine trade again, do I take it that my argument there has been accepted as that line of thought has gone without response. GG

Anywhre in the USA west of Denver would be my choice. Done it several times. Car hire cheap. Petrol dirt cheap. Motel accomodation cheap and widely available. GG

Hi Lordship, Again you rattle off lots of percentages in relation to JLR ans Europe and you avoid providing hard numbers on (1) Unit sales by JRL into Germany and France. (2) Unit sales by Merc, BMW, VW and Audi into the UK. Until these are to hand then percentages mean very little. GG

Apart for the 110,000 units for ALL of Europe in 2015, you quote only percentages. Germany was up 28% but from what to what? JLR sales to the China region (China=HK) were 122,010 in 2014 some 10% behind all of Europe. During this same period, Europe was 86,310. http://www.jaguarlandrover.com/gl/en/investor-relations/news/2015/01/12/jaguar-land-rover-december-1415-sales/

rendelharris Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Green Goose wrote: > > >Germans dont drive many Jags and RR's > > In 2015 Europe was Jaguar Land Rover's largest > market with over 110,000 sales, representing over > 25% of total global sales, and sales in Germany > rose by 28%. So, basically, you're utterly > wrong. > > http://www.jaguarlandrover.com/gl/en/investor-rela > tions/news/2016/01/08/jaguar-land-rover-reports-st > rong-full-year-global-sales-for-2015/ Look again. Your link says that sales to Europe was up 28% last year. No mention of Germany! My turn to say "Do keep up" Again. Also, also up 28% from what quantity to what quantity? Tell me please. Believe me, JLR sales to Germany are very modest. BMW, Audi and Merc export far more to the UK than JLR sell to Germany. Forget Europe overall, just think France and Germany and put the squeeze on them. The rest will follow their lead.

Lordship 516 Wrote: Now they are left with > no one in control & the EU will never compromise > on the four main principles including free > movement - that will have to be on a mutual basis > also. It will either be all in or all out. The EU is in terminal decline. Brexit was the first step. It will take time but other nations will exit. The EU will compromise on free movement in due course. It will eventually revert to a "Common Market" for trade.

Loz Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The problem you face with that strategy, GG, is > that - AFAIK - each of the 27 EU countries has a > veto on whatever trade deal is settled. And, as > we know, you have to do the trade deal with the EU > - not each individual country. Sorry Loz, but effectively the EU doesnt work quite like that in reality. The EU Commission is the most powerful entity there and they are effectively controlled by the innerr clique of 6 ie France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands , Belgium and Luxembrg. Out of this 6, France and Germany hold the clout. If Merker doesnt want it, then it doesnt get through. The other 22 are just marginal players.

rendelharris Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Green Goose wrote: > > >Germans dont drive many Jags and RR's > > In 2015 Europe was Jaguar Land Rover's largest > market with over 110,000 sales, representing over > 25% of total global sales, and sales in Germany > rose by 28%. So, basically, you're utterly > wrong. > > http://www.jaguarlandrover.com/gl/en/investor-rela > tions/news/2016/01/08/jaguar-land-rover-reports-st > rong-full-year-global-sales-for-2015/ Read my post please. I said "Germans dont drive many Jags and RR's" but you have said ""EUROPE" was Jaguar Land Rovers largest market". There is a big difference. Remember, France =wine whilst Germany = cars when it comes to targetted negotiations. Please keep up.

Lordship 516 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > GG > > "The UK does not export much (apart from whiskey) > to either France and Germany. So, we have nothing > much to loose but they have. Scotland wishes to > stay in the EU so let the Scots do it their way on > their own and negotiate with whiskey. " Agreed. That's exactly the point I was making. Let the Scots do their own thing. > > Whisky & hard liquor exports to Germany account > for 0.82 of UK exports. We export more ink 0.94% > than we do hard liquor. Cars 7.7%, Aircraft Parts > 6.4%, Car Parts 2.7%, Various types of engines > 4.6% & so on.... OK , you have good statistics, so what might I ask is, what is the UK's biggest export, by value, to Germany and France respectively. > > Its not possible to source French wine except in > France... Stuff the French and their wine. There's plenty good wine made outside France Australia, RSA, Chile, USA etc. We could take more Spanish and Italian just as long as it is not FRENCH. and you cannot get BMWs, Mercs or Volks > except from Europe... Stuff the German cars too. We can get more cars from Japan, Korea, Turkry, USA etc etc. They are just as good if not better. The common folk here dont drive Mercs and BMWs so why accomodate the elite? > UK buyers will want these & > no government will stop the demand. Look, we are facing austerity, so stuff the Mercs, Audis and BMWs. Lets go Toyota and Nissan- both built here. > is also true - Europeans will also want Range > Rovers & Jags. Germans dont drive many Jags and RR's > > Besides, do you for one moment think that adopting > the traditional bullying attitude of the City of > London will faze the Germans or the French [& > others] ? I think not. They will have many > positions of their own that they can counter hard > ball positions from UK negotiators and they will > have more substitution options from within Europe. > You strategy will merely drag out the > negotiations. > > Exports to the UK are important to the EU but are > only 12% of the overall exports & 3% of their GDP. > Exports from the UK to Europe constitute 45% of > UK exports - I think the EU negotiators might be > aware of these facts. You miss my basic point. We should only target France and Germany. Forget your EU wide statistics. Hit the two countries that export most to the UK. Divide and conquer! > > We do need tough negotiators but they also need to > be realistic and pragmatic. We need stability as > much and more than the EU. Sooner rather than > later. WE need to make deals - not history. Sorry, but I think you are one of those down-the-middle, win-win people. Meeting in the middle is plain stupid. We have alternatives elsewhere to Germany and France. Tell them to take a hike and find another market for their exports. Then they will wake up and smell the coffee. Merkel faces an election next year and she doesnt want to be seen as the one who gave up a huge export market for their cars. Same with Hollande and French wine.

Loz Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > But, GG, negotiations don't go like that. The > Germans know what their car industry is worth and > will negotiate a deal for one or two of our > exports that come to a similar value. We'll end up > with a deal with Germany for their cars and, say, > our steel. Sorry Loz, but that is rubbish. The UK does not export much steel to anyone as the UK steel industry is on its knees. UK steel is costly because our energy costs are higher because we have gone overboard on green energy and carbon levels. In this situation you dont go for the usual gentlemanly Win-Win situation. No, you go in hard and get your punches in first. Make them aware of what they have to lose. Target them individually where they are most vulnerable. Divide them, make them fearful and dominate the discussion. The UK does not export much (apart from whiskey) to either France and Germany. So, we have nothing much to loose but they have. Scotland wishes to stay in the EU so let the Scots do it their way on their own and negotiate with whiskey. Seriously, the UK must play hard ball with France and Germany. They have more to loose than the UK has. This is a classic case where compromise is NOT best. The UK has a strong hand compared to France and Germany. We can get wine and cars cheaper from plenty of other countries. Going for a negotiated compromise ( ie win-win) just results in a wishy-washy pathetic outcome and the UK will miss out. We need tough negotiators who have worked in industry and commerce- not career politicians who always want to go down the middle path of compromise. Cameron, Osborne, Johnston and the others from the Oxbridge elite etc have never worked outside politics. They have no idea of how business operates and know no other way than compromise. They all came up as SPADs - out of touch with real commercial life. It was the politicos (then Labour) who did not give us the full facts about the implications of the Lisbon treaty. We were all conned. Same as the conned us on Iraq WMDs. That's why people voted for Brexit- it was a protest vote againstt the system be it in Westminster or Brussels The UK was always a fringe player in Brussels. We never got accepted by the inner clique of France, Germany, Begium, Italy, Luxemburg and Netherlands. If we negotiate strongly, we will come out of this stronger than before,

Pleased to see that Merkel is taking a more concilliatory position that the other EU heads of state. She knows what side the German bread is buttered on. The UK is the German's largest market for car exports. The total for VW, Audi, Mercedes etc is around 430,000 units per annum. At an average of say ?25,000 each that is ?10,75,000,000. Now that is BIG money. If the UK was to slap an extra 15% duty on thes eimports, that impact massively on volume and would be seriously painful financially to Grmany. We can easily get more car s from Japan etc to compensate. The value of French wine exports to the UK is around ?1,100,000,000 pa. The UK is the second largest importer of French wine after the UK. Slap extra duty duty on that and it would make them sit up and think. Targetting these two countries I feel would produce real leverage in the forthcoming negotiations. Belgium and Luxemburg are not worth wasting time on even though they are the most enthusiastic about having a Federal Euro State. Once Germany and France see how it might affect them then they negotiate pragmatically.

Otta Wrote: > > > Yeah, thinking and talking about hating different > people. > > The man is scum whether you wanted to Leave the EU > or not. That's bigotry if ever I read it . Just because you don't agree with him , you call him scum.

miga Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > That doesn't make any sense to me. Have you got > some specific roles in mind in the EU machine that > you think are unaccountable, or is it just the > "vibe" of the thing? > Unelected - there are elections. The Commission, which is the Executive ie makes all the decisions ( headed by Junker) is unelected.

Mischa Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Waking up again to a long list of large companies > looking to relocate out of the UK, and both the > Tories and Labour in meltdown with nobody stepping > up to fill the huge void, I feel I need to do > something to feel less powerless and I know I'm > not alone. Businesses can't wait for months, they > will be filing applications to relocate as we > speak. > Does anyone know the best MPs to contact and have > any email addresses? Calm down Dear. No need to try and stir up panic. Nothing much will change after Brexit. The stock market has recovered completely from the dip this week and Sterling is coming back up nicely also. Here are two questions for you........ 1. Do you have a business? 2. Did you actually vote in the referendum/ GG

Had five sash windows done in double glazing four years ago and it came to ?11,400, so not cheap.

First of all, you have to reclaim "your territory". Foxes are quite territorial and mark their territory with urine and poo. You have to do the same to reclaim your garden. Yes, that means doing it yourself (after dark so as not to offend the neighbours) or do it in a jar and spread it around. Also, there are various commercial products available that are based on garlic that do work temorarily. If you dont want to do DIY, then search Ebay for cat repellent. It's pricey but does work for a while. DIY is cheaper! If/when that stops working, make up a chile/mustard sandwich. Should all these measures fail after time, you HAVE to relocate them. They will get bigger and bigger. Someone I know offers a relocation service but it is not cheap. To do it humanely requires real skill, equipment and time. GG

richard tudor Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Why delete the truth. Mr foxy Don't be a Liberal prat! Foxy is not "deleting the truth" as you say. He is contributing to the topic by providing relevant supplementary information.

Phil. Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Ease up on the BBC-hate. If it wasn't for the > likes of the Guardian and BBC we'd all be thinking > Farage is Jesus reincarnate! BBC - packed full of over-paid socialist luvvies who will retire on gold plated pensions. The Gruniads are saints by comparison - allbeit misguided, naive idealists, but well-intentioned. As for Farage, he is the only one who says it like it is ... unlike the other politicians who are gutless wimps out to line their own nests.

aerie Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > or a tory government aerie, that is a pathetic comment. Kindly take a more considered assessment prior to posting. GG

philosophie Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > It was brilliant, such a warm and positive vibe. > This is about where the cuts are targeted. 120 > billion in corporate tax avoidance and yet the > poor and vulnerable always incur the penalty. Can you name and shame some of them with the amounts they avoid/evade. That way I can target my protesting.

Marcus Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Anyone going? Thought about it then I looked at this "Austerity" thing. Soon realised that it's like having over-binged on a credit card and then having to pay off the debt later. Brown and Balls binged on borrowing from 2002 to 2010. This debt doesn't even start to get paid off until the budget balances. So more austerity to come whether we whinge or not. One way to reduce the effects of austerity is to slash overseas aid and spend the money here in the UK instead. The UK will spend ?11.4 billion in overseas aid this year! Now that is real money. I'd much rather protest about that.

C'mon folks, you worry about glyphosate? It's only Agent Orange from the '60's.

From a technical aspect, the squatters could be controlled by a time limit on their browsing based on the MAC identity of their laptops. That the coffee shops choose not to do this is a different issue. Perhaps they reckon that if spaces are limited their offerings appear to be in demand and are sought after. And maybe those customers who came in for a sit down coffee might just opt for a take-away coffee. Either way they win. GG