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Also got this re the UK election


Looking at the prices on Betfair for the coming UK General Election there are a few interesting insights that can be drawn:


1) May 6th is nailed on as the date: (staking ?100 @ mid mkt prices)


Before May 6th => ?715

on May 6th => ?24

After May 6th => ?2,125


2) More interestingly, a Majority Tory Government is 3 times more likely than a Hung Parliament, with a Labour Majority being faded aggressively: (staking ?100 @ mid mkt prices)


Conservative Majority => ?65

No Majority => ?198

Labour Majority => ?1,600


3) Digging further into that you can see the likelihood given to the different following outcomes: (staking ?100 @ mid mkt prices)


Cameron/Majority => ?77

Cameron/Minority => ?350

Brown/Minority => ?430

Brown/Majority => ?1,825

Marmora Man Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The fall is mostly in response to uncertainty

> about forthcoming election - encourage everyone to

> vote, in my opinion for Conservatives but at least

> for anything but a hung parliament.


Why anything but a hung parliament? I was kinda hoping for one to see party leaders grovelling for support. I don't see either main party as inspiring. Surely a coalition could keep whoever the main party is, honest, to a certain extent.

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