Trains cancellations - latest

[KidKruger]

Trains are running peeps

[OutOfFocus]

6 trains an hour today.

And if you want to get to Sutton or Dorking 2 through trains an hour.

Engineering works possibly in your favour.

[Sally Eva]

BBC blog on the politics behind the dispute:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38572334

The final line should resonate with people here

[mikeb]

To be clear, I'm not making a political point here, just recording what I've been told by some friends of mine in the industry (not at Southern). Maybe this is already well-known though I've not had it spelled-out to me so clearly before.

Apparently what is at stake here is RMT's status within the system: at the moment, no train can run without a guard (RMT union members) and so RMT has a very strong bargaining position. Drivers are represented by ASLEF which has apparently historically been less militant (though maybe this is changing e.g. Tosh McDonald).

If the Govt gets its way then although they will *aim* to run all trains with an onboard customer service operator (or whatever they're called), trains will still be able to run if no customer service staff as available e.g. if RMT has called a strike. This would weaken the RMT's hold over the system which presumably would lead to lower wages and / or changes to operating models.

I still don't know who is right or wrong in this dispute, though almost my whole commute is generally on trains without guards (overground, tube) and sometimes without drivers (DLR).

However, if this really is a fight over the position / future of RMT then we could be in for a very long haul - the miners' strike lasted for just under 12 months. Particularly given the intransigence of this government (see jr doctors) and that it involves 2 fairly militant unions.

[d.b]

There's another point here really.

Southern could end this strike tomorrow if they just gave up the fight and let the unions keep things "as is". But, they don't need to for two reasons:

a) The contract they have on this franchise does not appear to require running any actual trains. They get paid and make profits (e.g. increased profits last year) irrespective of performance.

b) The government are backing them up to try and break the union stranglehold. The transport secretary also does not seem to put a very high priority on running trains and serving passengers.

So we end up with the current ludicrous situation where local people with any alternative at all no longer bother even trying to use their local rail service. Rail companies nevertheless get paid big bucks and the government 100% back up the underperforming, overpaid, and incompetent franchise operators.

I'm sick of the unions and I think they are being intransigent luddites, but ultimately we need these guys to go to work.

[JohnL]

Thameslink trains were on time during the Southern strike - back

to 10 minutes late now :)

[Jeremy]

I think most of us are on board with the importance of unions and the right to strike, but it's being abused, and I do not believe the claimed safety concerns are sincere.

But I'm not sure what choice there is, other than for Govia capitulate and give them what they want (I imagine either backing down on D.O.O or guaranteeing no job losses long term). Either that, or the government does a "Ronald Reagan", which seems unthinkable.

[mikeb]

@ d.b. this is quite interesting : http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmtrans/64/6406.htm#_idTextAnchor013

Govia receives about ?1bn from the government to run Thameslink, Great Northern and Southern franchises (but none of the ticket income) which is apparently sized to cover all costs of operating the service and provide a profit margin of "about 1.5% over the life of the contract" (p19 of this http://www.go-ahead.com/content/dam/go-ahead/corporate/documents/Investors/Presentations/2016/FY-16-FINAL-02-09-1559.pdf.downloadasset.pdf).

However, for the year end 2nd July 2016, GTR "did not contribute to profitability" and Go-Ahead only expected the franchise to "begin contributing to rail division profits once the Thameslink programme is complete and that's in 2018".

If you've got a spare year, the full franchise agreement is here: https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjNheC858bRAhXnKsAKHT5EAE8QFgggMAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gov.uk%2Fgovernment%2Fuploads%2Fsystem%2Fuploads%2Fattachment_data%2Ffile%2F525766%2Ftsgn-franchise-agreement.pdf&usg=AFQjCNHvHWRMPp_7Yb6yd6mc3pKoKTcSqw. All 672 pages of it. Which makes me think the only winners out of this whole situation are Eversheds.

[Cardelia]

The thing is, if the RMT/ASLEF win then it'll have a knock-on effect on the train services which are already DOO. So the Underground, Overground, some suburban metro and long-distance Thameslink trains (plus others nationally) will be subject to strikes and disruption as the unions force their position onto those franchises which have already won the battle on DOO. Not only will those people suffer disruption in future, but everyone will be paying higher ticket prices to pay for all the new staff which will be 'needed' to open the doors.

I can't see any way in which the Government are going to back down on this issue. With no general election until 2020, the opposition in complete disarray and most of the public's attention focused on Brexit, they see it as a golden opportunity to break one of the last union strongholds without causing too much of a national fuss.

[JohnL]

Cardelia Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The thing is, if the RMT/ASLEF win then it'll have

> a knock-on effect on the train services which are

> already DOO. So the Underground, Overground, some

> suburban metro and long-distance Thameslink trains

> (plus others nationally) will be subject to

> strikes and disruption as the unions force their

> position onto those franchises which have already

> won the battle on DOO. Not only will those people

> suffer disruption in future, but everyone will be

> paying higher ticket prices to pay for all the new

> staff which will be 'needed' to open the doors.

>

> I can't see any way in which the Government are

> going to back down on this issue. With no general

> election until 2020, the opposition in complete

> disarray and most of the public's attention

> focused on Brexit, they see it as a golden

> opportunity to break one of the last union

> strongholds without causing too much of a national

> fuss.

Just hand it off to TFL

Government won't though as it's a Labour mayoralty.

[Sally Eva]

We're running one of our monthly Bike Trains up to central London and points north, this Wednesday Jan 18th.

full details, times, etc are on the What's On bit of the forum or on the Southwark Cyclists website. You can pm me for further info or text/phone me on 07842 640 207.

The weather forecast is pretty good at the moment. Cold but sunny. Should be light going up and we can arrange return rides (with warning) but you would need lights to come home and a lock to make sure you have a bike to come home on

[JW]

The strike is suspended, so one train an hour still instead of no trains. Lucky us!

[coreilly]

Interesting article for those who buy season tickets with credit cards:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/17/southern-rail-credit-card-refund-season-ticket-amex

[TheCat]

Question for those that have still been braving the train.....on the non-strike days are they still only running one per hour because of the overtime ban? and is it even worth trying for a train about 7am from ED?

I've been driving, but am wondering if its worth dipping my toe back in the water....

[JohnL]

JW Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> The strike is suspended, so one train an hour

> still instead of no trains. Lucky us!

Southern have stated they're going back to a full timetable

(next week)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-38663331

[Jules-and-Boo]

London Overground had two trains to Dalston cancelled without notice or announcement today (9.29 and 9.44).

No explanation.

[cerv]

TheCat Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Question for those that have still been braving

> the train.....on the non-strike days are they

> still only running one per hour because of the

> overtime ban? and is it even worth trying for a

> train about 7am from ED?

>

> I've been driving, but am wondering if its worth

> dipping my toe back in the water....

Check the National Rail journey planner for what's running, they do update it to reflect the current situation. To answer your question yes we have been back to one train an hour recently. I think at the moment there's a train just before 7 and then the next is 7.30 but you should always check before you set off in case there's a last minute cancellation

[TheCat]

cerv Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> TheCat Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Question for those that have still been braving

> > the train.....on the non-strike days are they

> > still only running one per hour because of the

> > overtime ban? and is it even worth trying for a

> > train about 7am from ED?

> >

> > I've been driving, but am wondering if its

> worth

> > dipping my toe back in the water....

>

> Check the National Rail journey planner for what's

> running, they do update it to reflect the current

> situation. To answer your question yes we have

> been back to one train an hour recently. I think

> at the moment there's a train just before 7 and

> then the next is 7.30 but you should always check

> before you set off in case there's a last minute

> cancellation

Yeah, thanks....can check the trains no problem, but more keen to know what the level of crowding is on these irregular services around this time of day...

[lavelle72]

Yeah it has been 06:55, 07:30 and 08:30 from what I've seen in recent days. The 06:55 is usually a short train, so busy but not overwhelmingly so. I would assume the 07:30 is worse.

[cerv]

TheCat Wrote:

> Yeah, thanks....can check the trains no problem,

> but more keen to know what the level of crowding

> is on these irregular services around this time of

> day...

I get the 8:30 - you can still get on it but odds on you'll be standing and might be a bit of a squeeze. I'd have thought the 7:30 wouldn't be any worse than this but can't say for certain

[rjsmall]

London Overground also cancelled the 11:29 Dalston Junction train at very short notice today so not sure if they were having problems.

[Zebedee Tring]

Were the cancelled Overground trains to Dalston Junction travelling from Denmark Hill or from Forest Hill? I ask this as I intend to catch a northbound Overground train from Forest Hill tomorrow morning.

[SoozieW]

Electrical failure today. But they were running from Denmark Hill earlier today.

[charliebubs]

TheCat Wrote:

---------------------------------------------------

> --------------------------------------------------

>

> Yeah, thanks....can check the trains no problem,

> but more keen to know what the level of crowding

> is on these irregular services around this time of

> day...

They are both rammed - the one around 7.30 and the one around 8.30. Very squeezed, standing room.

I'd keep driving!

[bargee99]

National Rail website shows 4 or 5 trains an hour from next week. Wonder how many will actually run!