8 June

[Louisa]

The bookies have got it right more times than the pollsters have, AND YET people on here are using the narrowing of the polls (despite 2015) to talk up some dramatic outcome. It won't happen. UK bookmakers have not always got it right, but when it comes to GE results, they've not missed out on the majority party since 74. Ignore them by all means, but they're considerably more reliable indicators than any other. Nothing is of course full proof.

Louisa.

[JohnL]

Louisa Wrote:

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> The bookies have got it right more times than the

> pollsters have, AND YET people on here are using

> the narrowing of the polls (despite 2015) to talk

> up some dramatic outcome. It won't happen. UK

> bookmakers have not always got it right, but when

> it comes to GE results, they've not missed out on

> the majority party since 74. Ignore them by all

> means, but they're considerably more reliable

> indicators than any other. Nothing is of course

> full proof.

>

> Louisa.

Even so.

Let us have our moment. It's crushing when that exit poll comes out

if you're not a Tory.

[red devil]

Bookmakers don't solely predict as such, their odds are also a reflection of what's already been bet, so for instance if a series of large bets were placed on a Labour win today, the odds would immediately be shortened to limit their pay out on a Labour win...

[Borky]

A bookmaker does not have an opinion after a market has initially been made, they are neither right or wrong. Anything suggesting the contrary in the bright sparkly light of knowledge is utter stupidity and show a basic lack of understanding of how things work.

[Borky]

rendelharris Wrote:

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> Ladbrokes were offering 3/1 on Trump and 1/5 on

> Clinton the day of the US election, and 3/1 on

> Brexit with Remain odds-on, so they're not always

> the best indicators.

Go one step further, what do those probabilities mean - what is generating them and why ?

[JohnL]

Borky Wrote:

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> A bookmaker does not have an opinion after a

> market has initially been made, they are neither

> right or wrong. Anything suggesting the contrary

> in the bright sparkly light of knowledge is utter

> stupidity and show a basic lack of understanding

> of how things work.

It's a free market surely the bookie wants people to bet - but also must make money. So sets the odds in order to do both.

Do betfair have odds - that's a slightly different system ?

[Borky]

a free market does not trump basic maths

[Borky]

red devil Wrote:

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> Bookmakers don't solely predict as such, their

> odds are also a reflection of what's already been

> bet, so for instance if a series of large bets

> were placed on a Labour win today, the odds would

> immediately be shortened to limit their pay out on

> a Labour win...

This is indeed the case. Once up and running and assuming a level field of information dissemination, the bookmakers has no interest in the actual outcome of a wager, he crunches numbers and reflects this in the price. To suggest that a bookmaker is somehow ahead of the curve is erroneous. He has no skin in the game if he chews his numbers correctly.

[titch juicy]

Borky Wrote:

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> a free market does not trump basic maths

Yes, and irrespective of how things work, basic maths shows that bookies odds are right more often than not.

[titch juicy]

robbin Wrote:

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> Each of you middle class lefties and keyboard

> warriors should put your money where your mouth

> is. I'm particularly talking about those of you

> who over the last few days have been whipping

> yourselves into something resembling teenage

> schoolboy arousal about the 'closing' of the gap

> in the polls.

Always name calling from the right wing. Delightful.

[titch juicy]

robbin Wrote:

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> As well as those of you who have spent the last

> year slagging off Jezza and now appear to have had

> a road to Damascus moment about him and are

> praying he becomes PM.

It's about removing the tories

[JohnL]

Borky Wrote:

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> a free market does not trump basic maths

I don't bet so I wouldn't know :) but I suppose the customer gambles the bookie doesn't.

[Borky]

titch juicy Wrote:

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> Borky Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > a free market does not trump basic maths

>

> Yes, and irrespective of how things work, basic

> maths shows that bookies odds are right more often

> than not.

Yes/No

They are right in that they are able to profit from either outcome. The odds are not a reflection of anything apart from what people are putting into the bookies. The odds are condensate of other peoples opinions. Those opinions are driven by an infinite numbers of potential drivers This is what is not being taken on board by some.

[Borky]

Thank you for your input titchy.

[Borky]

robbin Wrote:

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> Each of you middle class lefties and keyboard

> warriors should put your money where your mouth

> is. I'm particularly talking about those of you

> who over the last few days have been whipping

> yourselves into something resembling teenage

> schoolboy arousal about the 'closing' of the gap

> in the polls.

I have placed small bets on a number of outcomes across a range of bookmakers. I only gamble on politics .They are now squared with a little bit of wriggle room I have a minimum profit of ?150 or so and a higher one of ?1000 for fat tail outcomes.

I firmly expect to take at the lower end of the range if that helps.

[steveo]

It sounds a bit Reaganite but it would definitely save us a few bob

Borky Wrote:

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> lets nuke ourselves and do the world a favour.

>

> You utter coward Corbyn, give us a straight answer

> on this - would you nuke the country and ease our

> suffering ? its what the people want. They have

> spoken.

>

> Nuclear winter means nuclear winter, A red white

> and blue self inflicted Armageddon. let us be

> clear on this.

[JohnL]

I loved Fallout 4.

Will there be Zombies after this nuclear apocalypse ?.

[Borky]

We should not rest until lily livered corbyn has assured us he is more than happy to press to button to lead to our nuclear immolation.

The people have spoken and we are utterly seething about non specific / tangible things

[Louisa]

If there's any positives for Labour, it's that the bookies are offering much shorter odds on them retaining more seats than was the case a month ago, and if you believe all this stuff you'll also notice Labour are highly likely to increase their share of the vote following the last election.

Individual constituency bets are where things start to go wrong for Labour, marginals like Halifax and Exeter are looking considerably favourable for the Tories, which would go along with the wider picture, a swing from left to right enough to give May her majority.

Louisa.

[JohnL]

Louisa Wrote:

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> If there's any positives for Labour, it's that the

> bookies are offering much shorter odds on them

> retaining more seats than was the case a month

> ago, and if you believe all this stuff you'll also

> notice Labour are highly likely to increase their

> share of the vote following the last election.

>

> Individual constituency bets are where things

> start to go wrong for Labour, marginals like

> Halifax and Exeter are looking considerably

> favourable for the Tories, which would go along

> with the wider picture, a swing from left to right

> enough to give May her majority.

>

> Louisa.

Yet that YouGov poll was meant to look at individual constituencies - although they did have a huge margin of error.

Might be egg on the face for them (again)

[jaywalker]

The pollsters (not the bookmakers) know pretty much exactly what is going on (plus or minus 2%). The problem is that there are two questions, one of which is relatively knowable despite changing over the campaign (in this election dramatically and unusually) - for whom would you vote? The other is highly volatile and unpredictable - will you turn out to vote? The YouGov focus group is 50,000 people - it has an extraordinary degree of accuracy on the first question. It shows a very considerable narrowing of the polls. Yet, this will still leave May with a landslide if young people do not turn out to vote.

It is going to be raining all day tomorrow.

[JohnL]

With all the issues recently and the attempts the Labour party have made to woo young voters (Corbyn's on the front page of Kerrang and NME, he has the support of Grime4Corbyn and his rallies are always packed out).

if they don't come out this time I despair.

[Louisa]

jaywalker Wrote:

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> The pollsters (not the bookmakers) know pretty

> much exactly what is going on (plus or minus 2%).

> The problem is that there are two questions, one

> of which is relatively knowable despite changing

> over the campaign (in this election dramatically

> and unusually) - for whom would you vote? The

> other is highly volatile and unpredictable - will

> you turn out to vote? The YouGov focus group is

> 50,000 people - it has an extraordinary degree of

> accuracy on the first question. It shows a very

> considerable narrowing of the polls. Yet, this

> will still leave May with a landslide if young

> people do not turn out to vote.

>

> It is going to be raining all day tomorrow.

I agree with you on the point about turnout. Younger people will not turn out in significant enough numbers to change the course of this election result. Most of the people placing bets know this, pollsters know this too but can't predict by what degree this will hit turnout in specific seats. Politically active youngsters will enthusiastically get out and vote, but the silent majority of less involved younger people will simply stay at home. With the grey vote, it's certain that both politically active and non-active voters will turn out in similarly high numbers.

Louisa.

[????]

Most of the pollsters on their blogs are saying Tory majority 50-70

Tory on the ground reports via canvassing/their own polling are pretty optimistic

Labour ones (off the record via journalists - so make of that what you will) much less so

Corbymania will likely result in some swings in University Towns

Social media it's a Labour Landslide

A lot of millennials likely to be shattered and disappointed by Friday is my call, but we never know.

[red devil]

JohnL Wrote:

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> if they don't come out this time I despair.

Ask Nintendo to place a Pok?mon in every polling station. Problem solved...