Brexit View

[Alan Medic]

Do you think she just wants to go down in history as the PM who observed the 'will of the people' and exited the EU, at any cost? The whole thing is hard to fathom. I just hope this meeting on Friday brings about a split in the cabinet. Things need to break up fast or it's WTO rules here we come.

[JoeLeg]

I think she?s trapped and she knows it, and she knows we know.

She?s always had a reputation for being able to duck trouble, and be seen as a safe pair of hands. At the Home Office she managed to always find a compromise way through, something that would often satisfy no one but was enough of a fudge to make her look competent.

Now that isn?t an option; hard Brexiters are holding her feet to the fire, and much like all Conservative PM?s she?s at the mercy (as she sees it) of hardline Eurosceptics. Whether they actually have enough ammo to bring her down and get their way is another matter, but right now I think both May and the hardliners believe they do.

She doesn?t have anything other than ?Brexit means Brexit?. They pulled the trigger on A50 waaaay too fast, and now the clock is ticking. As I said before, I don?t think they actually know what to do.

However, I think the Boris/Jacob lot are keen to move the process along too - if we crash our hard and it goes badly they will be held accountable and they know it. Everyone is looking for a way out. The big question is what will the EU do? If they play more hardball it risks handing the moral ohh ground back to the hard Brexiters, ascthey say ?look, we tried to negotiate but they didn?t want to?, which I think would be a grave error on the part of the EU, as it will make them look bad and give succour to anti-EU movements in other nations.

They?re all thrashing around trying to come up with a compromise that they can all live with.

[keano77]

JoeLeg Wrote

>

The big question is what will the EU do?

Who cares?

The EU is about to implode. Italian banks bust. Greece needs another bail-out. Merkel is history and Schengen disintegrating. Macron (the Sun King) humiliated by Trump and hated by his people etc

What drugs are you remainders on?

[flocker spotter]

You should care, wehether you like it or not.

[JoeLeg]

keano77 Wrote:

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> JoeLeg Wrote

> >

> The big question is what will the EU do?

>

> Who cares?

>

I think you?ve missed the point. I?m talking about the EU response to our negotiations. I think we can all agree that so long as all sides pursue the blame game and point fingers, there will be no winners and ordinary citizens, both in the U.K. and EU, will be the ones who suffer. May, Hammond, Fox, Rees-Mogg, Barnier and Junckers are all going to be fine whatever the outcome. I have less and less faith in all of them as time goes on, and I?m not so dogmatic as to believe there are only idiots on our side (though there certainly are).

Or perhaps you haven?t missed the point, and you think hard Brexit is the way to go?

> The EU is about to implode. Italian banks bust.

> Greece needs another bail-out. Merkel is history

> and Schengen disintegrating. Macron (the Sun King)

> humiliated by Trump and hated by his people etc

All of this is very possible. It?s also in the realm of theory right now, and I?m more concerned with the negotiations.

> What drugs are you remainders on?

Cheap ad hom, and frankly beneath you.

The central point that concerns me right ow is the entrenched nature of the three competing interests - Soft and Hard Brexiters here, and the EU. We triggered A50 far too early and that played into the EU?s hands. We?re on the back foot because of that, added to which May is proving a colossal disaster as PM. Once again the Tory party is being riven by debates (screaming arguments!) about Europe, and as a result the most important political issue for a generation is being held up by ego and hubris.

We voted, we?re Leaving. I don?t like it but that?s by the by. Those who made this choice must now deliver the Brexit THEY promised; unfortunately the EU is part of that.

[Sephiroth]

.

[StraferJack]

"Those who made this choice must now deliver the Brexit THEY promised; " and what was that brexit? You can't define it because it doesn't exist. There are too many competing versions of brexit for any of them to come to the fore and be accepted by the others

Complaining about EU intransigence is pointless - it's a rule based organisation and it's simply applying the rules. It's this country (well,England basically) that is the problem - it can't agree on what kind of brexit it wants - even if EU allowed Uk to cherry pick and compromised in some areas, it wouldn't be enough for the headbangers

The basic truth is this - the whole thing is a folly. And simply pointing to a 2 year old, dodgy, referendum and claiming it as some iron-clad "will of the people", in the face of such damage is plain insane

Other countries have follow-up referendums and absolutely no reason same can't happen here. Any problems you might raise about holding a second refrendum are but a subset of the problems we will face anyway if we simply proceed

[Earl Aelfheah]

We voted narrowly to leave the EU. May should have tried to bring both sides together early on by exiting the EU, but maintaining a close partnership.. something along the Norway lines. I think in the early days she could have made the argument for this position as a compromise between the two sides in an extremely close vote.

now it's too late. The extremists in her party have dug in and hardened their positions. There is no scenario under which they will be happy. The Brexremists want no compromise, they want to burn the house down. I'm coming to the conclusion that she should call their bluff. Step aside and let the Boris / Mog contingent own it. The small bunch of ideologues on the right of the Tory party have been holding the country to ransom for years. Let them have their turn. The sooner we can suck the poison out, the sooner the country can rebuild itself.

[Earl Aelfheah]

It was a mistake letting the Leavers slope off after the vote. Boris should have replaced Cameron on the 'you broke it, you buy it' principle.

[JoeLeg]

StraferJack Wrote:

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> "Those who made this choice must now deliver the

> Brexit THEY promised; " and what was that brexit?

> You can't define it because it doesn't exist.

> There are too many competing versions of brexit

> for any of them to come to the fore and be

> accepted by the others.

And I have long been saying much the same. But Rees-Mogg and Johnson and many others seem to believe that Brexit will deliver a land of unicorns and flowing honey, and that it had no possible downside. To which I say, ?ok mate, give me what you promised! Where?s my #%^*ing unicorns and honey?? Because apparently that was what the hardliners think we will get, so when I say they need to deliver the Brexit THEY promised, I mean that they literally made promises to us, and it?s up to them to deliver.

I accept that their vision may have run up against cold hard reality, though I?m not sure they do.

>

> Complaining about EU intransigence is pointless -

> it's a rule based organisation and it's simply

> applying the rules.

If all the EU are doing is applying the rules then I have no argument with them. We knew the rules when we left.

It's this country

> (well,England basically) that is the problem - it

> can't agree on what kind of brexit it wants - even

> if EU allowed Uk to cherry pick and compromised in

> some areas, it wouldn't be enough for the

> headbangers

Agreed, with the caveat that idiots exist on both sides of most negotiations and I?m hoping the EU keep theirs under control because we most certainly are not keeping ours.

>

> The basic truth is this - the whole thing is a

> folly. And simply pointing to a 2 year old, dodgy,

> referendum and claiming it as some iron-clad "will

> of the people", in the face of such damage is

> plain insane

>

Again, I agree.

> Other countries have follow-up referendums and

> absolutely no reason same can't happen here. Any

> problems you might raise about holding a second

> refrendum are but a subset of the problems we will

> face anyway if we simply proceed

All true, but I still don?t think they?ll give us one.

[Earl Aelfheah]

Personally, I can't see the cabinet reaching any agreement tomorrow at their 'away day'. May is running out of road down which to kick the can.

[JohnL]

If the choice for parliament is Norway Option or No deal .. I think the majority is Norway.

One thing - Merkel is not history. She's got another 5 years I'd say.

[diable rouge]

JohnL Wrote:

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> If the choice for parliament is Norway Option or

> No deal .. I think the majority is Norway.

But would it pass Labour's 6 tests? One being that any deal must not make us worse off than we are now. With the Norway option we would be worse off. Labour couldn't vote for either... :)

[JohnL]

diable rouge Wrote:

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> JohnL Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > If the choice for parliament is Norway Option

> or

> > No deal .. I think the majority is Norway.

>

> But would it pass Labour's 6 tests? One being that

> any deal must not make us worse off than we are

> now. With the Norway option we would be worse off.

> Labour couldn't vote for either... :)

By that logic Labour have to abstain on everything other than remain :)

[diable rouge]

Exactly, their line is that they reckon they can negotiate a deal with the EU that won't make us worse off, which is just more 'cakeism'. As Strafer rightly pointed out, the EU is rules-based, you can't pin this on them and accuse them of not being flexible, or wanting to punish the UK for leaving. They are doing exactly what it says on the tin, something we co-wrote as a major member. The problem at the moment is that the UK Gov is still negotiating with itself...

[flocker spotter]

labour are as concerned with self preservation as the others. different tie, same outlook

[Earl Aelfheah]

As a party of opposition, Labour have the luxury of being able to stay non-committal however. Some might argue that politically, it is the most sensible position for them. The Tory's however are in Government and tasked with implementing Brexit. They shouldn't (in theory) able to obfuscate in the same way. It's certainly less forgivable, even reckless.

[JoeLeg]

Labour are also aware just how many of their supporters are keen Brexiters, especially in the North. They?re trying to be all things to all voters.

[StraferJack]

All of the consequences were spelled out before the referendum

leavers have consistently ignored them. And when the impact is being felt now, the response is either "project fear (again!)" or the EU is being inflexible. It's not inflexible to point out the rules before you decide you want to ignore them. All the UK is trying to do is scam a new treaty. Everyone can see it, and there isn't a hope of it being allowed

This whole thing is a mirage. And people will get very angry when they allow themselves to see that

Many remainers are as guilty - "shrug what can you do. A referendum was held. Ah well. Let's hope for the best"

A second referendum allows the people to reverse the result and own the outcome. I'm pretty confident a second ref would easily pass the 52% mark - and so are most leavers. if I was a confident Leaver I would welcome a second ref but they get quite upset about it

Of course it is possible the people would endorse leave - unlikely but possible. If that happened well....

But there is no cavalry here. No saviour coming over the hills. not labour, not libdems. Noone

If you think it's bad you have to be vocal and you have to demand a second referendum.

[flocker spotter]

no cavalry but calvary

[StraferJack]

"no cavalry but calvary"

very good

[Earl Aelfheah]

JoeLeg Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Labour are also aware just how many of their

> supporters are keen Brexiters, especially in the

> North. They?re trying to be all things to all

> voters.

Well off course they are - and being in opposition they can afford to play that game. The Conservatives can't, or at least, shouldn't.

[diable rouge]

Any takers on a sweepstake as to what time Thick as Mince will tender his next resignation threat? I'll go for 11-30am, just after the elevenses break when DD twigs that only Garibaldi and Bourbon biscuits are on the table...you can only push a man so far.

[diable rouge]

It's already kicking off after a leak of the 'third way' plan. We're gonna need more popcorn... https://twitter.com/HughRBennett/status/1014886216687374336/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1014886216687374336&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Fblog%2Flive%2F2018%2Fjul%2F05%2Fbrexit-david-davis-refuses-to-deny-reports-hes-told-may-her-new-customs-plan-wont-work-politics-live

[Earl Aelfheah]

The Tories have been trying to 'contain' their lunatic fringe since before John Major. It can't be sustained much longer, there has to be a split. It's just a case of how long they're going to keep writhing around in agony before the inevitable. I wish someone would speed things along and put them out of their misery.