Eurozone

[Jeremy]

Loz Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Sceptic: But then the pahnd wouldn't 'ave the queens 'ead on it, woodit?

The whole "national identity" argument is just laughable.

[mockney piers]

My taste in currency > your taste in currency?

[paphio]

If one agrees to the premice that people who live in colder harsher climate will have a greater propensity for work, steming from the neccessity to insulate ourselves from the weather. Then maybe it is lost cause to think that countries like Spain, Greece, the regions of southern Italy will ever contribute meanigfuly enough to keep the Euro strong.

Perhaps there is a clever solution to harmonise to completely different economical dynamics.

Any ideas?

[mockney piers]

There was I thinking that Greece may have remained a primarily poor agrarian economy, neglected under torpid Ottoman rule, was plunged into bitter civil war within decades of independence and suffered many years of military mismanagement, before finally entering the European Union and understandable splashing the cash offered as the country escaped poverty for the first time but only had limited time to modernise and diversify its economy before global financial crisis hit.

Stupid me, it's because it's hot there, well for at least 5 or 6 months of the year.

[StraferJack]

one doesn't agree with that premise.

[mockney piers]

There was I thinking that Spain may have remained a primarily poor agrarian economy, devastated by the napoleonic wars and torn apart by a century of political instability and strife which witnessed almost total loss of its empire, was plunged into bitter civil war and suffered many years of military mismanagement, before finally entering the European Union and understandable splashing the cash offered as the country escaped poverty for the first time but only had limited time to modernise and diversify its economy before global financial crisis hit.

Stupid me, it's because it's hot there, well for at least 4 to 5 months of the year.

[mockney piers]

I can do Portugal too if you like. Italy at a pinch, though as its economy is never that far from that of the UK despite its rubbish politics, it probably doesn't need me to do so. Nice of you to cherry pick Southern Italy though.

Isn't that a bit like saying rain makes people want to mine underground or stay at home unemployed, just look at wales?

[*Bob*]

They just don't try. That's the problem.

[DaveR]

Weber's theory of cultural determinism = Protestantism and capitalism are inextricably linked with the qualities of the former, in particular individualism and (ironically) the rejection of materialism, being the driving force for the development of the latter. Hence Calvinist Germany and Switzerland more economically successful than Catholic Spain and Italy.

Of course, that may also be complete tosh.

[mockney piers]

Weber was rather begging the question though, as is paphio.

"Given that Northern protestant states are more successful, it is the northerness and protestantness of states that makes them successful"

That's the problem with using historical determinism. Had he tried that a hundred odd years before hand he'd have wondered why it is that northern protestant states are unable to find any political unity, and would probably have determined that it's their very northerness and protestantness.

In other words, yes, tosh.

[mockney piers]

And where does Ireland fit into all this with its crappy weather?

Oh hang on, is it catholicism, yeah that's it, it's catholicism.....and err....greek orthodoxy.....

Oh hang on, Austria's catholic too, but it's cold, well actually it's really pretty hot in the summer apart from the really tall bits. Hmm maybe there's a germanic exception to the rule. Croatia, hot check, catholic check, but that's a pretty rich place, especially considering it was communist for so long...

Rule of thumb, if the exceptions and provisos to your rule start mounting up, then your hypothesis is probably a bit pants.

[Laddy Muck]

73!

[paphio]

What I am in broad strokes referring to is Montesquieu theory of geocultural determinism where I think the term -insular- was also created as a qualitative adjective to folk living in the British Ilses.

Montesquieu lived during the 18th century...a bit before Weber by a couple of centuries

Not wanting to be to inflammatory but still wanting to add to this hypothesis, I think it is also relevant to add that a hot climate tend to slow the pace of life as it unfolds daily... that is until me air-con the whole world.

The argument goes against rational economical theories which want fit its principles in one neat conceptual bag.

Out there, ... but hey, adds fuel to the topic.

[mockney piers]

"The argument goes against rational economical theories which want[s to] fit its principles in one neat conceptual bag"

I'd say a) scratch economical from above, and

b)so the rational theory is trying to fit everything into a neat bag, thereby implicitly "because it's hot" isn't?

[DaveR]

There are, naturally, a whole bunch of other theories. One is that it is not Protestantism per se that makes the difference, but that Protestantism is associated with significantly higher levels of literacy (because of the need to read the bible, which was prohibited to Catholics). F Fukuyama reckons it's all about trust, but he didn't turn out to be so hot on the end of history, so who knows.

Back on topic, I think a little bit of I told you so-ing might be forgivable from those who pointed out the difficulties of having a single currency without sensible and consistent fiscal policies across the Eurozone.

[mockney piers]

I think it would be remiss of any academic not to include religion as a factor, and the literacy argument is at least a little persuasive.

My problem is that any theory when dealing with anything as complex as society, culture, economics, socio-economics, politics, climate, industry, international trade, war, strife and an interaction of all of the above, tends by its very nature to be reductionist, and then by definition simplistic.

Fukuyama is far from stupid, which shows just how tempting historical determinism (history led to this moment) is. It's the same thing that drives people to constantly fall for 'the end of the world is nigh'. People like to think that their own time is somehow more significant than time gone before it.

Agreed that 'i told you so', even a leeeeetle bit of schadenfreude is understandable among those so inclined. It's the obvious glee (especially given the suffering and woes caused) that some have seen fit to do it with that many of the posters on here find so distasteful.

[paphio]

So the fact that all Southern countries of the E U defaulting, and none of the Northen ones, with the exception of Ireland,has nothing to do with climate?

I understand the climate theory is reductionist but I believe it plays a fairly important part in the whole economical equation...less productivity due to fewer working hours is perhaps one of the obvious variable.

[StraferJack]

Nope - you are coninuing to look for the facts to suit your own pet theories

Texas = a hard working US state in very hot weather

Finland, Germany, France = countries with cold weather and short working weeks

[DaveR]

"My problem is that any theory when dealing with anything as complex as society, culture, economics, socio-economics, politics, climate, industry, international trade, war, strife and an interaction of all of the above, tends by its very nature to be reductionist, and then by definition simplistic"

Theories always represent a simplification of real life - drawing a neat curve through a messy pattern of dots. The issue, surely, is whether there is a pattern to the dots at all, or whether the curve is just wishful thinking. I'm fairly sure that climate has close to zero causative link with economic prosperity, but that doesn't mean there's nothing that Ireland, Greece and Spain have in commmon (but Germany doesn't).

[Annette Curtain]

* Puts hand up *

"Yes, lady in the back row"

"My question is directed to mockney piers"

*coughs in hankie*

" Given the Religious undertones of this discussion......"

* coughs again *

" Roundhead or Cavalier " ?

[mockney piers]

Why try to look for commonality in something so complex, can't it be that any theory on something as hugely chaotic unpredictable and emotional as human interaction is pointless and that each case has it's own set of reasons, some common most not, that leads, in each case, to similar consequences.

I used to work in risk systems in investment banking. The idea that empirical analysis could be applied to unpredictable systems and quantify the levels of risk faced. It turned out to be complete bollocks, but even worse gave the bankers the very confidence to take greater risks because a bunch of numbers said they were within limits,

I'm just not sure what purpose this weather theory serves, especially given that it's total bollocks.

How do high performing Asian economies fit in, what about Brazilian growth, Indian? What about California for that matter?

[mockney piers]

Tough one Nette, tough one. I'm inclined to think I'd have gone with the floppy hats.

[paphio]

mockney piers Wrote:

>

> I'd say a) scratch economical from above, and

> b)so the rational theory is trying to fit

> everything into a neat bag, thereby implicitly

> "because it's hot" isn't?

You sacarstic old prune

[mockney piers]

;)

Actually I just found my first ever crazy ear hair, so you're not far wrong!

[david_carnell]

Someone did once reduce the Israeli-Palestinian question down to the fact that it's very hot there and there's not enough water.

Maybe there's some truth in it after all?

;-)