EU Trade Talks Thread

[JohnL]

This thread is heading towards the bin I think :)

[diable rouge]

I prefer my bouncers Golden...

[JohnL]

I got a bit Priti Patelish I'm afraid :)

I'll go back to Roy Jenkins

[pk]

Grove boy Wrote:

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> pk Wrote:

>

> > >

> >

> --------------------------------------------

> >

> > He?s a bit scary tho, I think he wants to

> pretend he wants to fight me

> >

> > What a pr*ck he is

>

>

> I'm not pretending you mouthy coward, call someone

> a prick in the real world/ offline and you'll get

> a kicking, but no you sit behind a keyboard giving

> it. You're a gutless piece of shit, a sap.

You?re not pretending! So you really want to fight me 🤣

how pathetic/psychopathic!

What a tough guy!

What a pr*ck!

[diable rouge]

JohnL Wrote:

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> I got a bit Priti Patelish I'm afraid :)

>

> I'll go back to Roy Jenkins

GB is the bouncer, I'm sure you'd make a better Roy Jenkins than Priti Patel though...:)

[Blah Blah]

Grove....stop trolling. You only ever post (from your posting history) to insult people, usually based on class and because they voted remain. You are determined to ruin any debate and pick a fight with someone (literally). Just stop it.

[Blah Blah]

Yes those are interesting points Keano. I did pick up on the scramble emerging as different members make demands on what they want in any trade deal. We still have to remember, that we are the first nation to ever leave, and sorting the trade agreement is new territory. The French want their fishing rights protected. The Germans their car exports protected. And it goes on. It is a lot easier to negotiate something new than let it go of something that already exists.

If another global financial crisis comes off the back of Coronavirus it will be more brutal this time. Banking has nowhere to go on interest rates and economies still recovering from 2008 will be in real trouble.

[keano77]

Yes Blah Blah.

There?s a sobering article in the Guardian regarding Italy?s precarious position, especially financially and the risk of contagion.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/an-italian-financial-crisis-is-certain-the-big-question-is-how-contagious-it-is

[Grove boy]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Grove....stop trolling. You only ever post (from

> your posting history) to insult people, usually

> based on class and because they voted remain. You

> are determined to ruin any debate and pick a fight

> with someone (literally). Just stop it.

Piss off you posh twat

[Grove boy]

PK i hope your next shit is a broken bottle you spineless mouthy drip.

[pk]

whilst I know that no-one could have foreseen that a virus would hit the world so hard now, if the world is going into a health and economic crisis, it's not a good time to have said you want to terminate your most important existing trade deals without anything to replace them when no-one else's priority will be to get a trade deal done with the UK as they'll have other issues to deal with

even EU talks will be/have been suspended

at least the government are starting to acknowledge that their arbitrary deadline is likely to need moving

[Blah Blah]

Technology offers solutions to some of these problems. Online conferencing may well become the norm while this pandemic works through. But even with that, I can not see any trade negotiations anywhere being high on the list of things to do for the next few months. If as predicted, up to 20% of the world's workers being off sick and closures of public spaces kick in, there will be far more important issues pressing on economic and supply issues. In many ways, a pandemic is like a world war, in terms of the disruption to supply lines and resources. Everything will change, even if we do not know to what degree as yet. I don't think Boris will lose any face either by seeking extension to the 'transition' in these conditions.

[keano77]

True pk, the timing is unfortunate but not disastrous - the U.K. can always trade on WTO terms if need be.

Potentially there could be worldwide financial and economic carnage. There?s talk Italian banks might need as much as a ?700 billion bailout (the biggest in history) which the eurozone couldn?t cope with alone and would need the help of the IMF and US.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/italy-will-need-a-precautionary-bailout-a-financial-firewall-as-coronavirus-pushes-it-to-the-brink-2020-03-10

Ironically such a bailout could actually strengthen the euro in the long term as Italy might be forced to accept fiscal union rather than leave the eurozone.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/10/coronavirus-may-finally-break-italian-resistance-eu-fiscal-union/

[JohnL]

I would have thought the pressure would be on to extend the transition period due to extraordinary events rather than trade on WTO terms.

Strangely it's the Express saying this - are Reach PLCs papers journalist sharing :)

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1253616/brexit-latest-news-coronavirus-budget-interest-rates

[Blah Blah]

Yeah, there is a reason why most countries do not trade on WTO terms solely. To lose our biggest export market on top of a global economic meltdown around this virus would be very foolish. In any case, there is likely to be a global readjustment depending on the economic impacts, which may run deeper than the 2008 crash. I don't see how any good trade deal can be agreed in the middle of such volatility.

[Effra]

The UK has a huge trading deficit with the EU so they have more to lose than us if WTO terms prevail.

The fact that M. Barnier is whinging now is that he realises that the UK will not extend. The EU default ploy has always been to extend negotiations just wear the other side down. They did this with Ireland and Denmark on previous votes.

With Southern Europe fast approaching debt meltdown, the EU is stuffed long term and we are better off out of it. France will try and achieve closer integration with Berlin and the Netherlands. The rest will be cast adrift.

Boris would do well to tell them to where to go in no uncertain manner.

[SpringTime]

Not so much anti-Trump or anti-meat but more about good taste for better food. I think this is a good idea:

https://secure.greenpeace.org.uk/page/s/ProtectUKfoodstandards

[Blah Blah]

This issue has been overshadowed by the pandemic but it still needs some attention. Today the government announced that border controls and customs would be more relaxed than originally planned (presumably because we do not have the resources to step them up after the end of the year). What this will mean in a no deal landscape is anyone's guess. But it could also be an indicator that the government are going to settle for some kind of deal in order to avoid having to spend the money they would need to on the ports and customs infrastructure with no deal. What hard leavers would make of that I don't know. Suffice to say that all negotiations have been kept secret from Parliament, and there will be a reason for that.

[SpringTime]

There's also this petition for those interested in EU talks extension for Covid:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/300412

[SpringTime]

keano77 Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> True pk, the timing is unfortunate but not

> disastrous - the U.K. can always trade on WTO

> terms if need be.

>

> Potentially there could be worldwide financial and

> economic carnage. There?s talk Italian banks might

> need as much as a ?700 billion bailout (the

> biggest in history) which the eurozone couldn?t

> cope with alone and would need the help of the IMF

> and US.

>

> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/italy-will-need-

> a-precautionary-bailout-a-financial-firewall-as-co

> ronavirus-pushes-it-to-the-brink-2020-03-10

>

> Ironically such a bailout could actually

> strengthen the euro in the long term as Italy

> might be forced to accept fiscal union rather than

> leave the eurozone.

>

> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/10/co

> ronavirus-may-finally-break-italian-resistance-eu-

> fiscal-union/

The Italian banks situation has been worrying me for some time! I still can't believe that this was ever allowed to happen. Even if the outcome ultimately strengthens the Eurozone both the imbalance and the scale of debt is very alarming - skip back to last year:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-italian-banks/

[Sephiroth]

Keano. I wouldn?t get excited about wto terms if I were you

World Trade Organisation: No-Deal Brexit will put UK at risk in new depression.

A NO-DEAL Brexit risks extra trouble for the UK during an oncoming recession that could be as deep as the Great Depression, the head of the WTO has said.

'Let's go WTO!'

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18516523.wto-no-deal-brexit-will-put-uk-risk-new-depression/?ref=twtrec

[Blah Blah]

We definitely will be in a terrible position trading on WTO terms with the biggest recession the world has ever seen looming. Covid had been bad enough for UK business so far. Imagine the impact of WTO terms and tariffs! Only a lunatic would persist with a hard Brexit right now.

[Sephiroth]

"Only a lunatic would persist with a hard Brexit right now."

or several million of them

I know the surveys at the weekend had "more than half" of the public support extension. But that means almost half don't support an extension.

[keano77]

Panic ye not (former) Remainers.

The EU wants a deal, the UK wants a deal and Barnier doesn?t want to end his career as the patsy who blew it.

Cue typical EU fudge around Christmas time.

[Sephiroth]

that hoary old excuse is quite mouldy by now

The EU haven't blinked so far, have infinitely more resilience to this than the UK

If the EU are close to blinking why are we even in a 1 year extension already?