Is the corona virus becoming a pandemic

[JohnL]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Bit of a misleading headline, which managed to

> mislead a work colleague:

>

> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/

>

> 300 workers sent home from Canary Wharf, when

> according to the article they were told not to go

> in to work.

I assume there's a link to Italy, China or similar as there's a nasty cough that's going around with a temperature that I don't think is COVID-19.

[Blah Blah]

This is where things will get complicated next winter, as people suffering from ordinary chest infections seek testing for COVID-19. It also seems as though five to ten percent of those infected require ICU treatment to recover. This is why the Chinese built those two new hospitals in a week. If this virus takes hold, we could be in trouble. The UK only has around six thousand ICU beds nationwide. If only a quarter of the population become infected, we would still need something towards half a million ICU beds available during the pandemic. There are only 170k beds of any kind in total nationwide. I would be curious to know what the government is doing to prepare should this scenario emerge.

[Huggers]

Dulwich Prep closed after pupils back from half term abroad show flu like symptoms

[Alan Medic]

Anyone work in an office that is taking any precautions? If so, what are they?

[JohnL]

Travel to certain countries restricted.

[seenbeen]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Anyone work in an office that is taking any

> precautions? If so, what are they?

Remember the BSE outbreak when all farms had containers of disinfectant at the gates so's you could scrub your wellies....hospitals and the GP surgeries have hand gel at the entrances anyway- it could be extended or we could all be given our own

[Alan Medic]

JohnL Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Travel to certain countries restricted.

I was thinking more of in office precautions like washing hands on arrival. Nothing where I work but then I don't expect any leadership from the directors.

[intexasatthe moment]

Have the boys from Dulwich Prep who were tested for corona been found to be clear ?

[JohnL]

Alan Medic Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> JohnL Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Travel to certain countries restricted.

>

> I was thinking more of in office precautions like

> washing hands on arrival. Nothing where I work but

> then I don't expect any leadership from the

> directors.

None of that - My boss is based in Germany and I suspect they are doing more.

Seems to be a bit casual at the moment in UK.

[seenbeen]

And then there is North Korea...

https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/29/kim-jong-un-warns-serious-consequences-coronavirus-infects-north-korea-12323730/

[Seabag]

I?m definitely ?working from home? more.

Client ?Shall we meet in town??

Me ?No, let?s Skype shall we?

[JohnL]

Matt Hancock seems to say (Marr/Ridge) there are four planned phases Contain, Delay, Research, Mitigate.

Whilst looking found this example of a corporate response from Coinbase (FinTech)

https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-releases-its-plan-for-the-coronavirus-spread

[dbboy]

Yes, the Contain, Delay, Research, Mitigate has been the approach for the last few weeks, so nothing new their.

[Blah Blah]

That is the right approach imo. How many people die, will depend on how widely the virus takes hold. Seasonal flu kills around half the percentage that this new virus seems to kill, but the reason why the seasonal flu figure is so low in real terms is because of an organised seasonal vaccination programe for the most vulnerable groups. Once there is a vaccine in place for COVID19, that too would become akin to seasonal flu. Until then however, the more the virus can be contained, the more likely the number of deaths will stay low in real terms, and the more likely we are to get to a vaccine before that changes.

[Alan Medic]

I spoke with my son this morning. He lives in Shenzhen. The only time he has been out in about the last two months has been to collect groceries delivered to the gate of his apartment block.

[TE44]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> That is the right approach imo. How many people

> die, will depend on how widely the virus takes

> hold. Seasonal flu kills around half the

> percentage that this new virus seems to kill, but

> the reason why the seasonal flu figure is so low

> in real terms is because of an organised seasonal

> vaccination programe for the most vulnerable

> groups. Once there is a vaccine in place for

> COVID19, that too would become akin to seasonal

> flu. Until then however, the more the virus can be

> contained, the more likely the number of deaths

> will stay low in real terms, and the more likely

> we are to get to a vaccine before that changes.

Blah Blah,Do you know the effectiveness of 2018-2019 flu vaccine, I cannot find them on PHE (public health England), I've read the 2017-18 which stated the overall flu vaccine effectiveness was 15%. I genuinelly would be interested. I would also be interested to know how far they came to the target of 600000 more children to recieve the live vaccine. I am aware they are still asking parents to vaccinate there children now as they are behind target but I can't find figures. Sorry can't put up link at moment.

[Blah Blah]

The 2018-2019 flu vaccine was 44.1% effective. Yes, 2017-2018 was particularly low at that 15%.

On child uptake, you will find all the figures in the opening paragraphs of this report. It varies from 44 to 75.9% depending on country within the UK.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/839350/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdf

You can find previous years reports here.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports

Hope that helps.

[TE44]

Blah Blah Thanks so much, looks very interesting, have only glimpsed, but looks like a lot of research and observation around novel mers Middle East Respiratory Symptoms coronavirus, first recognised in uk in 2012.

Thanks BB, my phone doesn't open certain files.

[Blah Blah]

You are welcome. Both Mers and Sars gave an insight into how a flu pandemic could emerge and in turn be dealt with effectively. Eyes have been on Asia for a long time as the most likely place for an avian flu pandemic to break out as we both know, although birds migrate, so continuous testing of migratory birds goes on too. It is too early to say what the full impact of COVID19 could be, but the immediate concern for most governments is the high percentage of people who need intensive in patient care to recover. 10% of any population is a lot of people, and especially if they all become ill at the same time.

[JohnL]

dbboy Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Yes, the Contain, Delay, Research, Mitigate has

> been the approach for the last few weeks, so

> nothing new their.

Hancock creeped Marr out for nothing then :)

More importantly locally - a case at Wimbledon College.

[JohnL]

"I was at a hospital where there were a few coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody"

Boris Johnson

[JohnL]

Worryingly the mortality is now set at 3.4% - varies depending on the standard of healthcare. There are also two separate strains of this virus L type and S type with L being more aggressive. The good new is that measures to contain it (as used in China) seem to work.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

[ED Bird]

Two King's College Hospital patients test positive for coronavirus:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-kings-college-hospital-london-a4378856.html?fbclid=IwAR3vE2Rg43lYqLnc4cISbAslW23xctwQ8myGiomc3JRYTnNvXdMBnJfMUA8

Parent tests positive for the Coronavirus at Lyndhurst Primary School:

https://lyndhurstprimaryschool.com/coronavirus-update/?fbclid=IwAR3sugrdIuGGDo4HqV-2U1oPeDlIv_FiPXleWTRi_iZJ57mzmxnmSvsKpJc

I have to admit, I did get a little spooked when I began to notice a number of people coughing & not covering their mouths along LL, so I've began doing my grocery shopping online now more than ever. I haven't used the tube. I've stopped my frequent visits to the west end... I'm taking as many precautions as possible.

[Spartacus]

JohnL do you work for the national press as you seem to be falling into their domain of spreading fear and panic over Covid-19 ?

So far numbers of cases in the UK are relatively low and whilst the very worst case scenario could see over a period of time that a majority of people will catch it (much like colds and Flu's) we won't all be down with it at the same time, public & emergency services may have peaks and troughs in numbers but things will still work to a good degree.

Whilst I am concerned it's an unknown strain of coronavirus, we shouldn't panic (yet) and good hygiene, not going to work / school / out if people aren't feeling well and making sure unnecessary personal contact (hugging, Hand shaking ...) is kept to a minimum then hopefully it will pass by with minimal impact on most people.

[Angelina]

I've noticed fewer people coughing / sneezing than usual on public transport.

Maybe this has actually made them aware of just how disgusting it is to do that. Quite a pleasant change.

I also quite like the idea of people washing their hands.