Is the corona virus becoming a pandemic

[edcam]

I'm amazed at how washing your hands regularly seems to be a new idea.

This virus has come along at a great time for the Tories and other Brexiteers. Now they can blame everything on that instead of the real cause of our impending woes.

[fishbiscuits]

Spartacus Wrote:

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> whilst the very worst case scenario could

> see over a period of time that a majority of

> people will catch it (much like colds and Flu's)

Hmmm. If most of us catch it - say 40 million in the UK - doesn't that indicate around one million deaths, based on current estimated mortality rate? Most of us will know someone who dies. Minimal impact?

[JohnL]

Spartacus Wrote:

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> JohnL do you work for the national press as you

> seem to be falling into their domain of spreading

> fear and panic over Covid-19 ?

>

> So far numbers of cases in the UK are relatively

> low and whilst the very worst case scenario could

> see over a period of time that a majority of

> people will catch it (much like colds and Flu's)

> we won't all be down with it at the same time,

> public & emergency services may have peaks and

> troughs in numbers but things will still work to a

> good degree.

>

> Whilst I am concerned it's an unknown strain of

> coronavirus, we shouldn't panic (yet) and good

> hygiene, not going to work / school / out if

> people aren't feeling well and making sure

> unnecessary personal contact (hugging, Hand

> shaking ...) is kept to a minimum then hopefully

> it will pass by with minimal impact on most

> people.

I'm IT but I am a bit of a pessimist in general - I have worked for media in the past, maybe I picked something up - there certainly used to be a lot of swearing when systems failed LOL.

But actually the news is not all negative as control measures are working in China so they will work here - they need to be strict however. I see working from home if you can (I am most days now), compulsory hand washes throughout the day etc. appearing.

[Sue]

Angelina Wrote:

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> I've noticed fewer people coughing / sneezing than

> usual on public transport.

>

> Maybe this has actually made them aware of just

> how disgusting it is to do that. Quite a pleasant

> change.

>

If you have got a cold ( not Corona symptoms obv) it is impossible not to sneeze and cough.

Did you mean sneezing and coughing without covering your mouth?

If everybody with a cold stayed at home, the country would come to a standstill! :)

[Angelina]

Bumping elbows is back

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elbow_bump

[Angelina]

and the Footshake in new

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/the-coronavirus-is-seeing-the-footshake-replace-the-handshake.html

[Blah Blah]

Spartacus, the issue is not the mortality rate, but the percentage of people who need ICU care to recover. Current evidence says that is 10 per cent. Imagine if just a quarter of the population contract the virus at the same time. That would be need for more than a million ICU beds and medical staff to treat them. THAT is why China built two new hospitals in ten days. FYI, we have less than 180k hospital beds nationally and under 7k of those are in ICU's. The concern is real.

China has seen success because whole regions have been confined to staying at home, to the expense of local economies. It may well be however, that once those restrictions are lifted, the virus recovers. This is the problem with viruses. They keep going until there is no supply left for them to infect. Similarly, there will be reluctance from many countries to follow the example of China if the virus takes hold.

For a comparison, Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of 1-3 per cent. It spread unchecked and ended up killing 100 million over two years. Seasonal flu by comparison kills around half a million each year and has a mortality rate of less than 1 per cent. So why risk a pandemic when we can try as hard as possible to contain, at least until a vaccine is ready for use.

[JohnL]

Read this from 2017 about Spanish Flu again recently and it does give you the lesson not to underestimate these things.

"Initially the 1918 pandemic set off few alarms, chiefly because in most places it rarely killed, despite the enormous numbers of people infected. Doctors in the British Grand Fleet, for example, admitted 10,313 sailors to sick bay in May and June, but only 4 died. It had hit both warring armies in France in April, but troops dismissed it as ?three-day fever.?

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/

[Trinnydad]

Just bought my other half a conference call capable phone system to mean she can hold group meetings without having to travel on public transport. I reckon the Tube must be a high risk area from now on.

[NewWave]

ED Bird Wrote:

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> Two King's College Hospital patients test positive

> for coronavirus:

>

> https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus

> -kings-college-hospital-london-a4378856.html?fbcli

> d=IwAR3vE2Rg43lYqLnc4cISbAslW23xctwQ8myGiomc3JRYTn

> NvXdMBnJfMUA8

>

> Parent tests positive for the Coronavirus at

> Lyndhurst Primary School:

>

> https://lyndhurstprimaryschool.com/coronavirus-upd

> ate/?fbclid=IwAR3sugrdIuGGDo4HqV-2U1oPeDlIv_FiPXle

> WTRi_iZJ57mzmxnmSvsKpJc

>

> I have to admit, I did get a little spooked when I

> began to notice a number of people coughing & not

> covering their mouths along LL, so I've began

> doing my grocery shopping online now more than

> ever. I haven't used the tube. I've stopped my

> frequent visits to the west end... I'm taking as

> many precautions as possible.

Please I beg you and others to try and support businesses at this difficult time-If we dont support our shops our high streets become ghost towns.

Wear gloves, wash your hands often but remember peoples jobs depend on us actually going into shops not just going online.

[Trinnydad]

The real question is whether China will now change its policy towards the "wet markets" which sell a wide range of wild animals both alive and dead , including bats, snakes and armadillos.

I have been to several cities there and seen many different species caged in high density situations in close proximity to foodstuff. Hygiene is non existent.

Given that China has been the source of many of the worst viral pandemics over the last 100 years, it's about time they wisened up. The worst, in 1918/19 killed 50 million and is believed to have originated in China. This was brought to Europe by the thousands of Chinese labourers used as labourers by the Allies in WW1. Then the was the Asian flu pandemic in the 50's.

There appears to be a lot in common with Ebola and wild meat products in Central Africa.

[KidKruger]

I?m not convinced, at a time when ?self-isolate? is becoming a more frequent likelihood, that making a point of frequenting shops and retail spaces is the appropriate priority !

[Blah Blah]

Wrong Trinidad. It is unknown exactly where Spanish Flu emerged from. France, Britain, China and the USA are all possibilities cited, but without any definitive evidence. However without going into the science too deeply, pathology specimens preserved from the time were analysed with present day molecular techniques in 2004, and the genes pointed not only to avian transmission, but closely mapped North American wild waterfowl. Migratory birds are monitored for avian flu viruses all year round by epidemiologists on the lookout for the next possible bird flu pandemic because the danger is known.

Whilst China and other countries, have food standards that are either not enforced, or risky, it is important to understand that any person working closely with a range of animals, from poultry to pigs, can be the first host for an avian flu virus. Spanish flu genes are found in pigs and people to this day. So it is not just about livestock at markets, but a whole range of farming practises.

[Trinnydad]

@BB

Whilst, as you say, there was no "definite evidence" the probability is in favour of China being the source of the Spanish.

China has proven to be the source of The "Asian Flu" that originated in China in early 1956. Likewise the SARS epidemic.

This being the case, China needs to get a grip.

[JohnL]

OK Government Experts are consistently saying mortality rate globally is 1% whilst all the monitoring sites (like the ones below say over 3%.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

http://nssac.bii.virginia.edu/covid-19/dashboard/

I assume this is as cases are under-reported (and that's a fair assumption) but they aren't explaining their figures clearly on the news channels and it leaves the impression they are pulling figures from the air.

[Blah Blah]

No you are wrong. The probability for Spanish flu is in favour of the USA, and pathology supports that probability. The first documented cases emerged from the USA even. Did you not read anything I wrote above?

The first case of Asian Flu was not reported from China either, but Singapore (in 1957), followed by a case in Hong Kong and the coastal areas of the USA.

The H3N2 virus of 1968, originated in the USA (killed about 1 million globally and still exists as a seasonal flu virus today).

As keen as you are to demonise China, you might want to learn something about avian flu and the measures that are always ongoing to contain it. Have a look at this link to understand that avian and swine flu can emerge pretty much anywhere. What matters is detection and response.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pandemic-timeline-1930-and-beyond.htm

[intexasatthe moment]

I wish the Gov would do more re containmemt .So far this seems to have concentrated on quarantining 2 groups back from Wuhan and one from the Diamond Princess .And contact tracing .

I wish they would take steps to stop large groups of people gathering - Crufts ,Cheltenham .

Is it just me ?

[JohnL]

intexasatthe moment Wrote:

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> I wish the Gov would do more re containmemt .So

> far this seems to have concentrated on

> quarantining 2 groups back from Wuhan and one from

> the Diamond Princess .And contact tracing .

>

> I wish they would take steps to stop large groups

> of people gathering - Crufts ,Cheltenham .

>

> Is it just me ?

They seem to be saying they haven't reached that point yet.

England - Wales rugby still goes ahead.

[muffins78]

I wish they would too! Isolate whatever they can now!

What seems to be happening in the US is worse though, between them not having the great healthcare available to them that we have! I?m worried about those people who can?t afford to be tested and what will happen to them and others as time goes on...

[diable rouge]

Surely public transport is the biggest risk, the tube and buses at the best of times are breeding grounds for every bug going...

[muffins78]

Yes it is - I think everyone is weary. For the couple of days I did venture to the office this week, I decided to leave a little early to avoid the worst of rush hour. People must have left a lot earlier than me, Canary Wharf was very quiet compared to normal.

Hard thing is you can?t avoid it sometimes if you don?t drive. I?m not sure I?m comfortable with a taxi either (might be overthinking things) - I?m trying to reduce journeys and coordinate appointments and trying to walk if possible. Not always possible...

[edcam]

Some responses to this virus are borderline hysterical.

[diable rouge]

Isn't that one of the first symptoms?

*Hides in the Quiet Room...*

[JohnL]

edcam Wrote:

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> Some responses to this virus are borderline

> hysterical.

Everybody has to assess their own risk and risk of those close to them. I still would feel comfortable popping down the pub and local shops.

[fishbiscuits]

Trinnydad Wrote:

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> This being the case, China needs to get a grip.

There's a couple of problems... superstitious (or pseudo-medicinal) beliefs that lead to the import and trade of exotic animals in China. And specifically the selling of live wild animals within food markets.

It will be hard to stamp out the former without a major cultural shift (or until there's no more tigers, rhinos, and pangolins left to take penises/horns/scales from). But the latter should be fairly simple to enforce/regulate.