social distancing (discussion)

[dbboy]

Look at Italy which we are told we are 2 - 3 weeks behind and which they expect to be the expected peak of the virus so far. it is very scary and I doubt we've seen anything yet in comparison to what is to come.

Take a look at the Govt figures I posted earlier today above. The Govt are being very cagey with on when the figures are released and based on yesterday's and today's figures, the mortality rate from the virus is 5.22% and rising on a daily basis.

[JohnL]

Chief Medical Officer is down now - along with Boris and Matt Hancock

and Dom Cummings was seen running out of No10.

[cactus]

I fear that young people are still not doing their bit ...

Three young lads sat on the Rye yesterday sharing a joint, six older looking teenagers hanging around the basketball courts at the bottom of Alleyn's playing fields today. Doubt they're all from the same household.

I imagine parents telling them to stay home, and they just sneak out anyway when backs are turned.

[JohnL]

cactus Wrote:

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> I fear that young people are still not doing their

> bit ...

> Three young lads sat on the Rye yesterday sharing

> a joint, six older looking teenagers hanging

> around the basketball courts at the bottom of

> Alleyn's playing fields today. Doubt they're all

> from the same household.

> I imagine parents telling them to stay home, and

> they just sneak out anyway when backs are turned.

this is just what the police are looking to move on (to home) I thought.

[Renata Hamvas]

Are any cafes in Southwark parks/open spaces open? They shouldn't be.

[seenbeen]

pk Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> seenbeen Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > JohnL wrote "I think there's maybe a 30% chance

> > millions of us have it (I wouldn't be

> > surprised)."

> >

> > Yes you are probably right but the problem is

> that

> > if the 30% go around willy-nilly infecting

> people

> > then some vulnerable people will get very sick

> > and end up in hospital on ventilators, key

> > workers get sick and cannot do their jobs- the

> > NHS collapses (after all covid sufferers are

> not

> > the ONLY sick people), law and order may

> collapse,

> > food and medicines cannot be supplied - hence

> the

> > need to social distance and prevent unnecessary

> > travel and contact- travel passes need to be

> > issued to essential workers

>

>

> One of you is saying that there?s a 30% chance

> ?millions have it?

>

> One of you seems to be saying probably 30% of

> people have it

>

> But do either of you have any basis for saying

> either of those things?

Doesn't matter....it is symptom-less but infectious for up to 2 weeks so...the important thing is to realise that the spread is exponential as these graphs from the DM show and that we are 2-3 weeks behind Italy...and if people continue to spread it.....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8160411/UKs-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps-601.html?ito=push-notification&ci=11579&si=1160965

[Sue]

seenbeen Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Sue Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I don't think you can blame a jump in deaths on

> > builders travelling to work!

>

> Are you for real...

Yes. What do you mean?

I'm suggesting there are many other factors involved than builders travelling to work.

Unless you have statistics to prove otherwise?

I'm not saying they should be doing this. I have already criticised builders talking in close proximity, in a previous post on here.

I'm just not convinced they can be solely blamed for a jump in deaths.

Many people have posted on here about runners passing too close, and people not keeping their distance in shops, for example.

[tasha1]

I cannot begin to describe the pain my family are going through right now. I?ve spent the last 3 days in Lewisham hospital watching my 78 year old mother die from Covid 19. It?s a horrendous death and I?m lucky in that the ward staff are allowing me to be with her. No other family members are allowed. The ward she?s on is full of Covid 19 patients. I over hear discussions about ITU beds being required but there are none, meaning many patients who may have previously been ventilated have only end of life care available. Yes, many patients are elderly but there are younger patients too. My mother is quite frail as she has Alzheimer?s but she was physically fit until last Saturday. I was isolating from her to protect her and the only place she really went to was a grocery shop and walks in the park.

Please please please adhere to the need to self isolate and if you do need to go out, then the 2 metre rule. If I can stop one family having to go through this by sharing this message, then it?s been worthwhile to share my distress at losing my beautiful mum

[dbboy]

I am so sorry to hear the horrendous story that you have so bravely told. Be strong.

[Peckhamgatecrasher]

So sorry for your loss, tasha.

[teddyboy23]

Same as above tasha

[siousxiesue]

Deepest Condolences Tasha. I'm hoping your memories can bring some comfort. And wishing you good health

[cactus]

So sorry Tasha, a tragedy that your mum can't be saved. So many, gone too soon.

[Charles Martel]

seenbeen Wrote:

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> The death toll has jumped again- it's the builders

> using public transport travelling in from poorer

> areas- a lot of them are probably paid cash in

> hand and will have nothing as they are not on any

> system to receive aid....

This is not how COVID-19 works. It generally takes 2 - 14 days for symptoms to develop from the time you are infected. Then 7 - 10 days where you have the symptoms while your immune system fights the virus. Then you either stabilise or get worse with the development of viral pneumonia. This is the point that people are admitted to hospital where they are treated with oxygen, then if they get worse, are put onto a ventilator or ECMO machine. Therefore the period from COVID-19 infection to death can be 3 - 4 weeks. Any jump in deaths today will be reflecting a jump in infections 3 - 4 weeks ago.

Today's death toll has nothing to do with anything that has happened in the last two weeks with the "lockdown" or social distancing. Today's death toll reflects the period where the government was just telling us to wash our hands. COVID-19 is a highly contagious respiratory virus spread via droplets coming from the mouth and nose of infected people. You can wash your hands as much as you like, cut your hands off even, it will not help you to avoid breathing in these droplets from your fellow passengers on the plane, bus, train or tube. You may recall Sidiq Khan telling us the tube was safe:

?No risk? of catching coronavirus on the Tube, says Sadiq Khan 3rd March 2020

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/03/coronavirus-london-tube-sadiq-khan-12339239/

This is just one of many examples of the false information that was being put out 3 - 4 weeks ago while the people who are dying now were being infected. Nothing about our knowledge of COVID-19 has changed in this period. You were as likely to catch the virus from someone within 2m 3 - 4 weeks ago as you are now.

Despite knowing that COVID-19 is a disease that causes mass death, the government, in its paternalistic wisdom, chose not to take effective measures to control either the spread of the virus into the country or to stop the spread once it had arrived. The simple maths of exponential growth showed that we needed to restrict movement weeks ago when cases were lower to have the most effect on the peak numbers. It is keeping the exponent of the exponential growth of the infected as low as possible that is the key to controlling the epidemic.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

The UK government choose not to aggressively test, contact trace and quarantine like Korea, Hong Kong etc., so have lost control. Now our "peak" will be where Italy is now, if we are lucky. Thousands more are going to die in the next few weeks.

[seenbeen]

Yes we all know about incubation periods- the builders in my area have been here for months....anyway the world stood NO chance since the first reported case was on 8th December in Wuhan as it turned out, and the chinese failed to inform anyone until 31st december....