Measles in the 50's

[DulwichFox]

Back in the 50's when I was 4 years old I had Measles and Whooping Cough together.

I was Very ill with a Temperature of 105 F

Measles killed millions of people globally and 1000's in the UK in the 1950's

I got through it and as a result I am now immune from Measles. You cannot get Measles twice.

I had Chicken pox. you cannot get Chicken Pox twice, although it can re-occur in the form of

Shingles in later life.

Both Measles and Chicken Pox are Viruses. There was not Vaccine for Measles until 1963.

There was no Vaccine for Chicken Pox until the 1970's

I believe that exposure to the Coronavirus may well be the answer to Immunity. (But we don't know) or do we ??

Perhaps we all need some exposure. It may kill us or Cure us.

The way things are now, we are not living our lives. We 'Live' in isolation.

Our future King, Charles and our Current Prime Minister Boris Johnson both were diagnosed as being positive

with the Coronavirus but one week later are no longer self isolating. Miracle or cure ??

DulwichFox

[PeckhamNicola]

This is what was happening before isolation but if we'd just continued the hospitals would have been overwhelmed with cases. Isolation means the rate of infection goes down allowing (hopefully) the NHS to cope with the number of people already infected and in need of treatment. Covid19 is new so nobody has any resistance to it yet.

[DulwichFox]

PeckhamNicola Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> This is what was happening before isolation but if

> we'd just continued the hospitals would have been

> overwhelmed with cases. Isolation means the rate

> of infection goes down allowing (hopefully) the

> NHS to cope with the number of people already

> infected and in need of treatment. Covid19 is new

> so nobody has any resistance to it yet.

No one has resistance until they are exposed to it.

Like when I got Measles as a child. I could of died but I did not, I developed a resistance

10 years before a Vaccine was developed.

That's how Viruses work.

Foxy

[Sue]

Dulwich Fox, I had chicken pox twice :)

[curlylocks]

DulwichFox Wrote:

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> No one has resistance until they are exposed to

> it.

> Like when I got Measles as a child. I could of

> died but I did not, I developed a resistance

> 10 years before a Vaccine was developed.

>

> That's how Viruses work.

>

> Foxy

Some viruses such as measles confer life long immunity after infection. Others such as flu mutate allowing reinfection - which is why the flu vaccine has to be reconfigured each year. For others immunity is not lifelong - the evidence from other coronaviruses is that immunity is fairly short lived.

Furthermore, because this is a new virus we cannot be certain that infection does confer immunity

Of particular relevance

"There are other coronaviruses circulating among humans and although they induce immunity, this doesn?t last. ?Some other viruses in the coronavirus family, such as those that cause common colds, tend to induce immunity that is relatively short-lived, at around three months,? says Peter Openshaw at Imperial College London."

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532754-600-can-you-catch-the-coronavirus-twice-we-dont-know-yet/#ixzz6IVcaHyxv

[Blah Blah]

Sorry DF, but not all viruses work like that. The closest virus to COVID19 is Sars CoV (and the lab name for COVID19 is in fact SARS CoV2). SARS CoV does not produce eternal immunity according to the latest research. It seems to provide early immunity that decreases within a year. And SARS CoV had a final mortality rate of 10% after the 2003 outbreak. We still have no vaccine for SARS CoV, although there is a lot of research towards that end which may be helpful in developing a working vaccine for COVID19.

COVID19 shares 69.7% of its DNA with SARS CoV. So it is far too early to assume immunity comes with the virus. In addition, this is a virus that can mutate, and the concern is of a second wave that differs from the first wave. No immunity in place then. The more the virus spreads, the more likely that mutation is. And risking that before we have effective treatment (or a vaccine) is too much of a risk.

Finally, on the issue of herd immunity. In most cases, that has only really been achieved with the help of a vaccine. We did not develop herd immunity to measles because most children got it. Every child is born without immunity to many things. And measles is a very dangerous virus. Millions of people dying from anything is the reason why we create vaccines and try to prevent pandemics.

And as PN says. Suddenly having 18% of the population (which seems to be the percentage of people who need ICU care to recover) needing hospital treatment, would mean the NHS being overwhelmed with a million plus patients at any one time. That inevitably would lead to more people dying than need to.

We have been lucky in the West, to have avoided a real pandemic for 100 years. Asia, Africa and the Middle East however, have not been so lucky, which perhaps explains why they also are faster to respond, knowing exactly what needs to be done.

[JL Dulwich]

DF, you're lucky you haven't had measles or chicken pox more than once. One certainly can get both of these - severely - more than once, which I know from personal experience.

[Dulwich Born And Bred]

My child and I both had chicken pox twice. I?ve also had measles.

[JohnL]

DulwichFox Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Our future King, Charles and our Current Prime

> Minister Boris Johnson both were diagnosed as

> being positive

> with the Coronavirus but one week later are no

> longer self isolating. Miracle or cure ??

>

> DulwichFox

Boris is still cooped up and looks really ill.

My dad had diptheria as a boy (weakens the heart) and died of a heart attack at 47 (my mother knew about the diphteria) - strangely its a bacteria but has a vaccine. I question if we know if COVID-19 weakens our lungs forever if we survive.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/diphtheria/

[holloway]

Infection with the coronavirus will indeed generate immunity to at least the particular strain of the virus the individual has been infected with. The more people who become immune to it will generate herd immunity. Vaccination works this way too but is obviously a safer way of achieving herd immunity. Exposure to the coronavirus as 'the answer to immunity' is controversial as infection can result in death even in apparently young, fit healthy people. Give me a vaccine for a bacteria or virus anyday.

[Blah Blah]

Sorry Holloway, but the evidence is that SARS viruses do not deliver indefinite immunity (with some people being reinfected after as little as three months). So herd immunity in this way could never be achieved. This is why the race is on for effective drug treatment and/or a vaccine. Otherwise we could face wave after wave of this with mutation between waves. Clinical trials for a vaccine for MERS only began in Decemeber of last year. These SARS viruses are particularly challenging when it comes to vaccine development so far. But a lot of research has been done since 2003 so hopefully that will speed up the way to a vaccine for this pandemic.

[fishbiscuits]

I agree with Fox... yes infection may not result in indefinite immunity, but the effect may be sufficient to dramatically decrease transmission, to the point that it's no longer a threat to our way of life.

This is currently what I'm pinning my hopes on (along with the understanding that there are many, many silent asymptomatic carriers). Because a vaccine is many months away - at best.

And we can probably also learn from post-SARS Asia in terms of wearing masks when unwell, and general hygiene.

[JohnL]

fishbiscuits Wrote:

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> And we can probably also learn from post-SARS Asia

> in terms of wearing masks when unwell, and general

> hygiene.

The problem with masks is the only ones available are from China and take a month at least to be delivered - the UK suppliers don't have any for the public.

and I can't sew :(

[holloway]

I never mentioned 'indefinite immunity'. If you are infected with a virus/bacteria and recover, circulating antibodies produced in response, that are specific to that strain of virus/bacteria, will prevent re-infection. If the virus or bacteria mutate, as influenza viruses do, then new strains are created and cause infection.

[malumbu]

Not sure how quickly they developed herd immunity but the indigenous population of South America was devastated by diseases from the old world - in particular smallpox, typhus, measles, influenza, bubonic plague, cholera, malaria, tuberculosis, mumps, yellow fever and pertussis,

[Blah Blah]

DF is off the mark on this one fishbiscuits.

I repeat that it is not yet known how long any immunity lasts. With SARS CoV (1), it is just months, and it is constantly declining through those months. Now imagine, you have a pandemic that waves its way around the world. That means we could be facing an new wave of infection every few months, with little or no immunity in play. If that virus then mutates, it could be more virulent, more deadly. This is precisely what happened with Spanish Flu, which in the end had an estimated 3% fatality across the globe. In real terms that was up to 100 million deaths in just 12-18 months. Add into that the a-symptomatic superspreaders and it all becomes very dangerous.

Now compare that to SARS CoV (1) with its 10% mortality rate. You can see why epidemiologists and virologists are taking the lines they are. We have the benefit of advanced medical technology, and ability to genome sequence and look directly at the proteins on the tips of those antigens. The science of zoonotic viruses and pandemics is well understood. But it is a complex science in many ways, and the challenge has been in getting a public that may not grasp the complexity, or is resistant to blindly believing what experts tell them, to understand the risks.

Millions of sick and dying people would be as damaging to the global economy as these short term lock downs are going to be. But of course, there are going to be many people who won't believe what could happen, unless they see it happen. That is the frustrating part for scientists but also for governments too, who are always half thinking about the next election.

One of the most dangerous part of the messaging imo has been comparisons to flu. Influenza A is the only strain of flu that is zoonotic, but developing a vaccine for that is relatively easy. Migrating birds are constantly monitored for antigenic drift in that A virus, from which each seasons flu vaccine can be made. Antigenic shift is a bigger challenge (swine flu is an example of that in play) but again, the method for vaccine is well practised. With SARS viruses, we haven't as yet found an effective vaccine protocol. COVID19 is not a flu virus. This IS different. I don't really know what more I can say to get that across.

[seenbeen]

Blah Blah Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Sorry DF, but not all viruses work like that. The

> closest virus to COVID19 is Sars CoV (and the lab

> name for COVID19 is in fact SARS CoV2). SARS CoV

> does not produce eternal immunity according to the

> latest research. It seems to provide early

> immunity that decreases within a year. And SARS

> CoV had a final mortality rate of 10% after the

> 2003 outbreak. We still have no vaccine for SARS

> CoV, although there is a lot of research towards

> that end which may be helpful in developing a

> working vaccine for COVID19.

>

> COVID19 shares 69.7% of its DNA with SARS CoV. So

> it is far too early to assume immunity comes with

> the virus. In addition, this is a virus that can

> mutate, and the concern is of a second wave that

> differs from the first wave. No immunity in place

> then. The more the virus spreads, the more likely

> that mutation is. And risking that before we have

> effective treatment (or a vaccine) is too much of

> a risk.

>

> Finally, on the issue of herd immunity. In most

> cases, that has only really been achieved with the

> help of a vaccine. We did not develop herd

> immunity to measles because most children got it.

> Every child is born without immunity to many

> things. And measles is a very dangerous virus.

> Millions of people dying from anything is the

> reason why we create vaccines and try to prevent

> pandemics.

>

> And as PN says. Suddenly having 18% of the

> population (which seems to be the percentage of

> people who need ICU care to recover) needing

> hospital treatment, would mean the NHS being

> overwhelmed with a million plus patients at any

> one time. That inevitably would lead to more

> people dying than need to.

>

> We have been lucky in the West, to have avoided a

> real pandemic for 100 years. Asia, Africa and the

> Middle East however, have not been so lucky, which

> perhaps explains why they also are faster to

> respond, knowing exactly what needs to be done.

Accroding to Jennifer Sun of ContagionLive the present Covid strain is the 2002 strain that has mustated 5 times to become more contagious and worse in several respects. Also when they were trying to develop a vaccine for SARS after 2002 the rats and mice used were developing severe liver damage...I've always believed that prevention is better than cure and the markets should've been shut down- the WHO is useless imvho

[Blah Blah]

Yes Seenbeen. The Chinese (and others) have been trying to develop a vaccine since that first outbreak and two further small outbreaks were the result of laboratory workers catching the virus. There is also a correlation between viral load and severity of symptoms in mice and rats which may explain why front line health workers are always disproportionately affected in a pandemic. But you can replicate that in a public arena if you put an uninfected person in a room full of infected people. This is also a very good reason for containing spread as quickly as possible.

I do think the WHO were slow to classify a pandemic. Possibly complacent due to previous outbreaks being contained in Asia or the Middle East. Ebola too in Africa. The Chinese unpacked the genome sequence very quickly and published immediately, so there was no excuse for not understanding this virus is a SARS mutation.

And just to add that the first reports of this virus emerged as small one line alerts at the very end of December. Health professionals were warning journalists at the time that this could be serious. By the end of January, those same health professionals were warning the press to watch the USA, because they were not responding as they need to and it will likely explode there. One of the most difficult things in the West has been in getting populist leaders to face the science. This posturing has absolutely cost lives. For once, the experts are right.

[malumbu]

seenbeen Wrote:

I couldn't find a wiki entry on Contagion Live or other views so unsure whether it is a legit peer reviewed organisation or alt right. There is enough fake news. An innocent question.

-------------------------------------------------------

>

> Accroding to Jennifer Sun of ContagionLive the

> present Covid strain is the 2002 strain that has

> mustated 5 times to become more contagious and

> worse in several respects. Also when they were

> trying to develop a vaccine for SARS after 2002

> the rats and mice used were developing severe

> liver damage...I've always believed that

> prevention is better than cure and the markets

> should've been shut down- the WHO is useless imvho

[JohnL]

malumbu Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I couldn't find a wiki entry on Contagion Live or

> other views so unsure whether it is a legit peer

> reviewed organisation or alt right. There is

> enough fake news. An innocent question.

>

This is the parent company - which is big - but not sure that makes it good LOL

https://www.mjhlifesciences.com/markets#specialty-care

[seenbeen]

https://www.contagionlive.com/

[fishbiscuits]

The government certainly seem to think that immunity is important. Talking about easing restrictions once we can prove that parts of the country have achieved a certain level of immunity. Although I understand that we're still in the early days of understanding how post-infection immunity develops, and how long it lasts.

[Blah Blah]

Of course it is important. Achieving it against a virus for which there is no working vaccine and of which there is evidence of mutation (from previous versions of SARS) is another matter. Epidemiologists are always looking for the next big one. COVID19 may well be it.

[seenbeen]

This is a bit of a worry- I'm wondering if they had those tests that Matt Hancock said were 75% unreliable!

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2020/04/06/51-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-again-in-south-korea/

[JohnL]

My mother who worked for years as a nurse told me they never told patients or family if they were likely to die for years (until about the 1970s) - just that they were ill.

Of course they never told anybody if treatment was being withdrawn and only the doctors and nurses would know.