To the anti-vaxxer who keeps littering the covid page

[fishbiscuits]

First of all, stop posting misinformation and conspiracy nonsense on the Covid page.

Secondly. Relative Risk Reduction is the STANDARD scale used for quoting efficacy. Is it NOT some sort of cover-up.

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-thelancet-riskreduction-idUSL2N2NK1XA

To give an example :

In a study of 10000 vaccinated participants, and also 10000 control group participants. If the control group encountered 100 Covid infections and the vaccinated group 5 infections:

- It would give Relative Risk Reduction of 95%

- It would give an Absolute Risk Reduction of 0.95% (difference in rates, 1% - 0.05%)

Absolute Risk Reduction of 0.95% is not "bad". It is just a different metric.

[shebe]

The post referred to has been reported and removed from the Covid page. Would suggest not starting this up again here, as it might give them another route back in.

[fishbiscuits]

I will leave it up to the admin. I respect his decision and won't be offended if it's deleted.

I think it's an important point though. Most of the covid/vaccine sceptics I encounter clearly lack the skills to interpret statistics intelligently. It seems to be those without any grounding in maths and the sciences who are most susceptible to this sort of twisting of the facts.

[KidKruger]

I would venture that it?s less of a maths/science grasp thing and more of a mindset thing.

Sometimes the maths is simple, but some people just don?t care about the maths or facts - they want to believe what they believe.

[exdulwicher]

I think it's an important point though. Most of the covid/vaccine sceptics I encounter clearly lack the skills to interpret statistics intelligently. It seems to be those without any grounding in maths and the sciences who are most susceptible to this sort of twisting of the facts.

It's very prevalent amongst conspiracy theorists - in many cases it's why they're so easily lead into the conspiracy in the first place. Far easier to watch a few YouTube videos than take time to learn facts from reputable sources, especially when the facts involve maths.

You see it a lot in Flat Earth stuff. Much quoting of physics without any understanding of the basics.

[diable rouge]

KidKruger Wrote:

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> I would venture that it?s less of a maths/science

> grasp thing and more of a mindset thing.

> Sometimes the maths is simple, but some people

> just don?t care about the maths or facts - they

> want to believe what they believe.

You now see this a lot in politics and journalism too, especially with the contrarianism of the spikedonline crowd which has crept into the mainstream. Instead of working their way towards a conclusion, they start of with a conclusion in keeping with their mindset and work backwards. Gove's ''we don't need experts'' comment has a lot to answer for...

[fishbiscuits]

Good points. Due to my background the mathematical/logical fallacy is the first thing that jumps out at me. As well as the obvious incongruity between actual ability, and their own perceived abilities. This bizarrely misguided illusion of superiority.

But of course you're right... a lot of it is wanting to believe something, and then grasping at shreds of "evidence" that appear to superficially support that belief.

[JohnL]

Most Anti-Vaxxers are now taking the vaccine .. quietly.

[Sephiroth]

They're vaxxified

And they're ancient

[Earl Aelfheah]

Sephiroth Wrote:

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> They're vaxxified

> And they're ancient

and they drive an ice cream van

:-)

[alex_b]

Even for most honest people a lot of the statistics are non intuitive. Take the headlines that 50% of Delta variant cases in Israel are from fully vaccinated people. This sounds bad but is exactly what you?d expect with 85% of the adult population vaccinated and a 90% is vaccine efficiency.

[Administrator]

I don't want them antivaxxer /conspirisists types pedalling nonsense on the forum pretending it's real gods's honest truth. Please do report them.

[JohnL]

alex_b Wrote:

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> Even for most honest people a lot of the

> statistics are non intuitive. Take the headlines

> that 50% of Delta variant cases in Israel are from

> fully vaccinated people. This sounds bad but is

> exactly what you?d expect with 85% of the adult

> population vaccinated and a 90% is vaccine

> efficiency.

Yep - that's the bit we're going to have to live with until the cases fall.

[fishbiscuits]

alex_b Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Even for most honest people a lot of the

> statistics are non intuitive. Take the headlines

> that 50% of Delta variant cases in Israel are from

> fully vaccinated people. This sounds bad but is

> exactly what you?d expect with 85% of the adult

> population vaccinated and a 90% is vaccine

> efficiency.

Yes. Quite. And in the example I gave, the "Absolute Risk Reduction" is not particularly intuitive either.. and therefore open to misrepresentation and abuse.

[ianr]

alex_b Wrote:

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> Take the headlines that 50% of Delta

> variant cases in Israel are from

> fully vaccinated people. This sounds

> bad but is exactly what you?d expect

> with 85% of the adult population

> vaccinated and a 90% is vaccine

> efficiency.

I am wondering why no-one has queried this.

[Seabag]

Can we get a list of who these people are, so we can ?vaccinate? ourselves against them.

👍🏽💥

[fishbiscuits]

ianr Wrote:

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> alex_b Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Take the headlines that 50% of Delta

> > variant cases in Israel are from

> > fully vaccinated people. This sounds

> > bad but is exactly what you?d expect

> > with 85% of the adult population

> > vaccinated and a 90% is vaccine

> > efficiency.

>

> I am wondering why no-one has queried this.

LOL... yeah I didn't really follow the maths there either...

Also, our measures of effectiveness have changed over time. I don't think Pfizer is 90% effective at infection from delta variant.

[alex_b]

I can?t find the worked example for the Israel one but it is correct. This Guardian article covers similar ground https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated.

[fishbiscuits]

Not debating the basic principle, Alex. That as more and more people are vaccinated - and given that the vaccines are not by any means perfect - eventually the number of cases amongst the vaccinated could be expected to outnumber those amongst the unvaccinated.

[niledynodely]

I know that RRR is standard practice but don't you think ARR is what most people would expect? When I found out it as standard practice it made me question vaccines rather than just think everything was fine. But I guess some people question more than others.

[fishbiscuits]

niledynodely Wrote:

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> I know that RRR is standard practice but don't you

> think ARR is what most people would expect?

No because the RRR describes the effectiveness of the drug... it is an intuitive measure. The ARR incorporates the prevalence of the disease, so has to be taken in context.

[fishbiscuits]

niledynodely Wrote:

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> But I guess some people question more than others.

Questioning things is fine. It can be healthy, I think.

But you seem rather selective as to which sources to question, and which to believe...

[exdulwicher]

Questioning things is fine. It can be healthy, I think.

But you seem rather selective as to which sources to question, and which to believe...

Confirmation bias.

You get it in all sorts of fields where people will give greater weight to "evidence" which backs up their preconceived idea and lesser weight to "evidence" which does not back up their opinion.

Fascinating areas of study, confirmation bias.