Housing Market

[Brendan]

Once there was a man selling apples. Everybody bought his apples so he put the price up. They carried on buying his apples so he put the price up some more. They still bought them. So he put them up some more to see what would happen. People still bought them. So he carried on putting them up bit by bit every day until one day people said. ?We don?t have enough money to buy your apples anymore.?

I can?t understand why people can?t see how simple it is. If any product increases in price at the higher rate than peoples? earnings do then it is going to hit a point where the customers can no longer afford it and the market will no longer be there.

There are a whole lot of factors involved that frill the edges and make it sound more complex but in general they are just a load of cock fabricated by bankers to make money for themselves.

How do you like them apples?

[DaveR]

"Once there was a man selling apples. Everybody bought his apples so he put the price up. They carried on buying his apples so he put the price up some more. They still bought them. So he put them up some more to see what would happen. People still bought them. So he carried on putting them up bit by bit every day until one day people said. ?We don?t have enough money to buy your apples anymore.?

.....so one of them started growing his own apples, and selling them to the others, a bit cheaper. And the first man had to sell a bit cheaper as well. And some of the people had already switched to buying pears, so to persuade them to buy apples again, they both had to sell apples cheaper still.............

[*Bob*]

How do you grow your own period property? Is there a kit out there somewhere?

[DaveR]

"How do you grow your own period property? Is there a kit out there somewhere?"

You persuade punters that [insert name of edgy inner city neighbourhood here] is 'up and coming' and a house there is just like a house in [insert name of adjoining smug gentrified neighbourhood] but much cheaper.

[*Bob*]

Ahh... Nunhead.

[Brendan]

Am I the only person who thinks that is a particularly rude name for a suburb?

[Keef]

Ha, it's actually a rather literal name by all accounts.

[Brendan]

That makes it worse. ::o

filth!

[Ant]

They stuck it on a spike, didn't they?

[Keef]

Ant don't encourage him!!!

[*Bob*]

Ant Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> They stuck it on a spike, didn't they?

Call it what you will. I prefer 'Mr Jiggles'.

[Ant]

Oh great. About to go into a meeting, and after reading that I shall be tittering like a loon.

[*Bob*]

That's a coincidence... Mrs *Bob* says it makes her laugh too.

[Andyng]

It is also apparent some peoples views ,and

all the talk of global recession has been

as a result of the media.As I said earlier

if you have a descent deposit and job you have

nothing to worry about -forget the media

benmorg Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> Andyng Wrote:

> > > > The 2012 olympics ,the govt chucking money

> to

> > > > bank> > All this pessimissm is a chain

> > reaction from

> > > the

> > > > media and estate agents.Eg scenes of queus

> > > outside

> > > > northern rock.

> > >

> > > no, it's becausee we've all lived through an

> > > astonishing boom in house prices. Nobody

> > expected

> > > it to last forever or to end painlessly.

> House

> > > prices in London are now ten times average

> > > earnings. That simply isn't sustainable.

> > >

> >

> > So your saying the queues outside northern rock

> > did not

> > bring any panic at all

>

> no, that's not what I'm saying. The slowdown in

> the market is caused by changes in the global

> economy. The northern rock crisis had the same

> cause, so is linked to the house price falls, but

> it isn't itself the cause of house price falls,

> though it may have been a factor.

>

> For a good assessment of the current state of the

> london property market, here's yesterday's Evening

> Standard:

>

> http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-234

> 80853-details/Advice+to+first-time+buyers+and+inve

> stors%3A+don%27t+do+it/article.do

>

> "Advice to first-time buyers and investors: don't

> do it

> Mira Bar-Hillel, Property Correspondent

> 28.04.08

>

> After the heady market conditions of last year -

> with its gazumping and 125 per cent mortgages -

> the spring downturn is starting to cause panic.

>

> The market is facing gridlock because many sellers

> are being unrealistic about prices.

>

> At the same time buyers are reluctant to commit to

> a market that they think - quite rightly - has

> further to fall. The result? A freeze. Houses are

> still going on sale at inflated prices but, in

> stark contrast to a year ago, no one is

> interested.

>

> Prices are "slashed", but if they are reduced from

> a fictional original asking price the decreasing

> number of buyers will buy neither the "reduction"

> nor the house.

>

> The result is a 40 per cent drop in property

> sales. So what should people do? As usual, it's

> horses for courses. For anyone who has no pressing

> need to sell, I would suggest not selling. Now is

> not the time to move house on a whim or to "test

> the market".

>

> If you must sell, frequent reality checks are

> needed. If buyers are not biting, it can only be

> because your property is overpriced and no amount

> of wishful thinking or estate agent's jargon will

> change that. If you bought with a City bonus but

> now need to sell because your job is threatened by

> the credit squeeze, think very carefully.

>

> There is a dearth of buyers out there and you must

> not delay the sale hoping someone will pay a

> larger price. Just find a buyer of some kind

> before prices fall further.

>

> Anyone else facing redundancy or even repossession

> should make every effort to sell before the latter

> takes place. The experience of the early Nineties

> is that being repossessed is the worst possible

> option.

>

> My advice to buyers - especially first-timers and

> investors - is much simpler: don't do it.

>

> There can be no rational reason for buying

> anything, let alone the most expensive purchase of

> most people's lifetime, when the expert consensus

> is that it will lose at least 12 per cent of its

> value over the next two years.

>

> This is also not the time for homeowners to move.

> The coming months - perhaps years - are likely to

> be quite stressful enough."

[benmorg]

Andyng Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> It is also apparent some peoples views ,and

> all the talk of global recession has been

> as a result of the media.As I said earlier

> if you have a descent deposit and job you have

> nothing to worry about -forget the media

OK forget the media, but you can get info about the housing market directly from the people who monitor it, e.g. Nationwide report out today says house price inflation is now year-on-year negative. See attached image for their updated graph of real prices vs the long-term trend.

As they say, buyer beware.

[macroban]

Earlier in this thread there was a brief discussion about the valuation of "the shop next to the butchers".

In 2004 the lease which then expired in 2012 of the lingerie shop on the corner was on the market with a rental of ?11k p.a. and a premium of ?60k. This seemed realistic pricing then.

[Andyng]

benmorg Wrote:

> OK forget the media, but you can get info about

> the housing market directly from the people who

> monitor it, e.g. Nationwide report out today says

> house price inflation is now year-on-year

> negative. See attached image for their updated

> graph of real prices vs the long-term trend.

>

> As they say, buyer beware.

So your saying the intro of the new transport links (tube) to areas such as dalston

will have no affect on prices at all,and they will continue to drop 40%?

No need to beware of anything only first time buyers will small deposits,bad credit,facing higher

costs of living ,and finding it harder to get mortgage approvals?Are my not right?

[benmorg]

Andyng Wrote:

> So your saying the intro of the new transport

> links (tube) to areas such as dalston

> will have no affect on prices at all,and they will

> continue to drop 40%?

> No need to beware of anything only first time

> buyers will small deposits,bad credit,facing

> higher

> costs of living ,and finding it harder to get

> mortgage approvals?Are my not right?

Andyng - please point out where I mentioned either the tube line to Dalston or claimed house prices would drop 40%. I would appreciate it if you didn't put words in my mouth.

Anyone buying a house at the moment is likely to lose a significant amount of money in the short to medium term. That's why I used the phrase "buyer beware".

[ibilly99]

Recession Anecdotal

I regularly shop in Lidl Peckham and buy my essentials there - the prices are unbelievable and there is plenty of fresh fruit and veg e.g. pineapple 99p - Somerfield 2 quid!. I can then get the luxuries from Sainsbury?s - most of the shoppers are Poles, Aficans and other low income groups but I have noticed in the last few weeks an increase in middle class folk appearing - you can always tell when it's their first visit because they just can't believe the prices.

I suspect they wouldn't have been seen dead in there during the boom! Times must be tough.

BTW in a Netto/Lidl lockdown Lidl triumphs !

[Robb71]

One of my old school friends is a director at one of the Estate Agents in E.Dulwich. He tells me how he really sees the market , rather than me hearing it from other Estate Agents who generally are early 20 somethings with no idea of what they are talking about. He reckons that prices will fall anywhere between 20-30% by the end of 2009 and will then start to level off by 2010. Might be totally wrong but there you go.....