At least 11,571 morons in Eastleigh.

[Huguenot]

They'd have to be simple minded to vote for a party whose entire manifesto is 'we don't like foreigners and we don't like gays'.

I mean, really???

Let's not attempt to elevate it by calling it a 'protest' vote.

[Mrs TP]

Farcical unbelievable results this am.

[Townleygreen]

A strange aspect of the result is that Labour received no apparent "protest" votes. The coalition is unpopular, Labour scores well in the opinion polls, but does badly here.

At least UKIP didn't win the seat, unlike George Galloway last year (at Bradford)

[Salsaboy]

Democracy at work.

[david_carnell]

LibDems control the whole council so they are clearly popular there. Considering Huhne's demise and the Renard scandal they can give themselves a pat on the back this morning. They mobilised impressive levels of ground staff and got out their vote. Social media etc have a part to play but the LibDems proved that focusing resources can still do the business.

UKIP should be gutted. Yes they finised second, but this is not a good result for them. The coalition is plummeting in the opinion polls, the LibDems were scandal ridden and UKIP are a perfect protest vote outlet. Yet still they lost. And by some margin. This wasn't close, it was by over 1,000. Compare this to the SDP in the 80s who used the protest vote movement to take by-election victories from both Lab and Con and yet still failed come the general election. UKIP will try and talk this up but they should be terrified of the fact that if they can't win here they won't come close at the general election to winning seats.

The Tories should be worried though. They abandoned the centre ground, put up Sarah Palin as a candidate, aped UKIP and still got beaten into third. Their vote got split. Cameron gambled that taking a tough stance on Europe would stop this from happening and it's failed. The right wing of this country isn't big enough to support one party let alone two. They abandon the centre ground at their peril.

Labour should also be disappointed. Whilst no one expected miracles, a (minor) celebrity candidate, decent opinion poll ratings and people looking to protest against the coalition should have garnered a better result that 4th. It's far from a fatal blow for EdM's One Nation brand of Labour but it's not exactly a ringing endorsement either. Lessons to be learnt.

[StraferJack]

According to Matt Holehouse at the telegraph, if the result (incl swings) was replicated at gen election it would be

Lab 355

Con 208

LibDem 41

UKIP 17

Others 29

[david_carnell]

That's really not worth the time it took you to type that out. Sorry.

By-elections don't follow general election trends. People vote differently in each.

[StraferJack]

of course - but that doesn't stop a lot of people speculating a lot about a byelection - "it was a good night for x, a bad night for y" on and on

so as a standalone event with it's own unique outcome, why bother?

[david_carnell]

Because you can judge parties on their performance at a stand alone election without extrapolating the numbers across the whole country.

Although if you like that sort of thing, the last time Tories won a general election (1992), they won Eastleigh with a majority of 18,000.

[????]

The minor celebrity was one who had previously wished that Margaret Thatcher, the democratically elected PM at the time, had been killed and blown up by terrorist. Fine for woodrot et al but someone who wants to be an MP??

Really only a goodish result for the Lib Dems and, I suppose encouragingly, reflects some type of interest in local rather than national issues. I still reckon that we are in for a hung parliament again with a rise in smaller party (protest) voting..Labour has two issues it needs to convince on:

1) It won't be irresponsible on Public Spending and really will be 'one nation' - as the voting part of the electorate by and large understand this far more then in the past - and it is very very unconvincing on this among floaters, which, much to the chagrin of my Labour friends on here no doubt, is people like me.

2) Ed, who has done far better than I thought he would, but still when it comes to actually voting at a GE i still think a fair few voters will not choose him. Sad that personality/charisma is important but it is - Atlee wouldn't have got in nowadays for e.g.

[david_carnell]

Oh jesus Quids - really?! If you can't tell that when a COMEDIAN writes that in a book, to treat it with a degree of levity, then you've jumped the shark. He wasn't campaigning on a platform of blowing up a house on the Dulwich estate, was he?

You're correct on point 1) - closer to the election you'd expect more detailed economic plans from Lab and they'll be judged on them. It would be strategically incompetent to publicise those economic policies now, not only because the Tories could spend 18 months dissecting them but because the economic situation could change in the meantime.

On point 2) I think as we progress towards a GE the party leaders will become more publically visible and voters will "get to know them" more. I think this will play into Ed's hand - slow and steady wins the race. I think he's becoming more sure of himself as we progress whilst Cameron and Clegg become more unlikeable. If Major can win a GE whilst being charisma free then I think EdM could too.

[Loz]

Labour failing to make any ground, Tories self destructing and the LibDems holding a core vote. Personally, I think this result points to another hung parliament next election.

The question will be: which out of Labour and the Tories will woo the Lib Dems. After all the whining the Labour grassroots have been making about the 'traitorous' LibDems, how quickly will they be singing a different love song when the smell of power enters their nostrils?

[Townleygreen]

Immediately, is my opinion!

[uncleglen]

Turnout was 53% compared with 69% at the 2010 election.

66% postal votes (before the Rennard business)

UKIP probably cashed in on the Daily Mail or Express headlines last week about the number of Romanian criminals we have here