What on earth is happening in Zimbabwe?

[muffintop]

Can't help feeling that the people there have been left to die at the murderous hands of Mr "Hitler" Mugabe,they have my deepest sympathies, he even blatantly models himself on Hitler now. Shame there isn't any oil in Zimbabwe because then America, (with Britain in hot pursuit) and NATO's immediate reaction and "intervention" would have been almost instantaneous! I watched a documentary the other night on the situation and found it extremely harrowing so much so that it made me cry. Shame on this World and some people we live with in it.

[fish]

What a shameful, two-faced world we live in. It's all very well hanging Sadaam, but what about this nasty piece of work?

[Keef]

You hit the nail on the head, if there is no oil, and hence money to be made / stolen, America won't bother. And it would seem that if they don't, then we won't either.

It is absolutely unbelievable what he gets away with, and this country seems to think banning the cricket team from playing here will make a statement... Hmm :-S

[Marmora Man]

THere's plenty of potential for economic succes in Zimbabwe but I think any appetite for intervention in independent countries is low at present. Properly governed the ountry could make a substantial contribution to food production on that continent.

One option, suggested I think in the Times today, would be for all governments to refuse to recognise the Mugabe government as legitimate and instead recognise Morgan Zsinvgarai as head of a government in exile, while at the same time pressing Suth Africa, Mbeki and other African leaders to bring about change without recourse to the military.

[david_carnell]

Keef Wrote:

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> You hit the nail on the head, if there is no oil,

> and hence money to be made / stolen, America won't

> bother. And it would seem that if they don't, then

> we won't either.

So just how much oil does Kosovo have?

[Ant]

Mbeki needs to grow a spine and have a word, but I feel it may already be too late.

Am aware of issues around public perceptions of/support for the two leaders in Africa re the struggle against colonialism etc., but I think everyone would agree that it's moved way beyond that now. Zim's problems are all down to Mugabe!

[Keef]

david_carnell Wrote:

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> So just how much oil does Kosovo have?

:) A good point, but I think we are living in different times now.

[Asset]

I don't think the government had anything to do with the England cricket team's decision did they?

Gordon Brown refused to go to a summit in Italy recently that Mugabe was attending.

I would say thay the UK government is reticent about piling in there with force as it is not that long ago the Zimbabweans won independence.

The UN needs to kick some butt over there. Or in fact, how about some of the neighbouring countries.

Mugabe has obviously gone completely insane but as an article I was reading recently said, the 6 people behind him responsible for the campaign of abuse and terror are more likely to want to keep him in power as they will be the ones to face human rights convictions whereas Mugabe can make a bargain in the event of some sort of deposement.

[mockney piers]

I've talked about Kosovo before.

That little policy actually caused a hell of a lot more suffering than it prevented, not to mention encouraged an attempted secession by ethnic Albanians in neighbouring FYRoM who couldn't believe the West opposed their attempted coup there, and it still rumbles on today.

That was about flexing muscular humanitarian intervention, a fantastic new idea whereby western powers can carry on the same old gunboat diplomacy and try and look nice while they're at it.

Blair genuinely thought he was doing the same in Iraq, not realising the theory was all wrong in the first place.

It was much more to do with trying to give NATO a continued role (and Europe a closeness to the US) in a world that no longer needed it. You only have to look at Afghanistan to see how close NATO is to breaking point.

If we really do do MHI, as per Kosovo and Sierra Leone, then why the hell not Sudan and Zimbabwe.

Zim would last about 5 minutes in the face of a 'coalition' invasion and there would be no insurgency as per Iraq. The majority of the populace, free of the reign of terror would probably hunt down and kill the perpetrators of terror who didn't make it to the Congo, free elections would ensue, then time to go home.

Do it..doo eeeet.

[david_carnell]

Keef Wrote:

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> david_carnell Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > So just how much oil does Kosovo have?

>

>

> :) A good point, but I think we are living in

> different times now.

Or Afghanistan for that matter.

I know what your saying Keef but it's a lazy argument I get a bit tired of hearing. Nothing personal. The reasons for the Iraq invasion were more complicated than "for oil".

Asset is correct in asserting that we were responsible for enough atrocities of our own in Southern Africa without deploying troops there now to remove Mugabe. The image of a former colonial power going back with it's white soldiers and removing a black leader from power would play straight into Mugabe's hands.

I think other posters have already said that Mbeki (a spineless man if ever there was one) is the regional power and could be doing a whole lot more. In this case though, I think diplomacy rather than military muscle might win the day...eventually.

[mockney piers]

"Or Afghanistan for that matter. "

"The reasons for the Iraq invasion were more complicated than "for oil". "

Well, yes and no. There were lots of strands to the arguments that led to the invasion of each, revenge and the willingness to use military power to show the world it means business being two of the top ones.

But the fact that there were (theoretical) plans in place for both prior to 2001 are pretty telling.

It's a long term game, ultimately it's about energy security and getting airbases in place where they are needed right in the thick of things.

Most planners could easily envisage 'losing' Saudi Arabia just as they 'lost' Iran (and why wouldn't they, propping tortuous totalitarian regimes etc) and Iraq seemed a pretty good basis of operations for control of the theatre.

Afghanistan, just like the old great game, seems a pretty good place to serve as a centre of operations to hold on to interests to mineral, gas and oil interest in central Asia. Have you read Craig Murray's book about Uzbeckistan(sp?)? The US doesn't care about the war on terror or Human rights, it's about keeping those leaders on side and out of the Russian sphere of influence.

This is a long game where the enemies are Russia, China and even India, but those conflicts are a long ways off yet.

Mark my words though, it's just a matter of time, and no power loses it's hegemony without a fight, be it Rome, Spain, France or Britain. It just doesn't happen.

[????]

The Daily Mash summed it up nicely yesterday but I can't do that link thing...help please Mockney

[Brendan]

I don?t see why people have ever been afraid of criticizing him in the first place. In the early 80s he massacred more than 20 000 Matebele in order to assert his party and tribe?s political dominance.

Anyway the governance of the whole region is bollocksed up. Mostly due to the fact that the countries that exist are not states that have naturally developed. They were set up as administrative divisions by the colonial powers and incorporate people from different nations with different languages, traditions and cultures. The fact that these peoples are often historical enemies doesn?t help much either. Cultural differences then come out in the political landscape of the country.

Mbeki is a staunch pan-africanist who believes that all the people of the continent can live in harmony with one another and integrate as one. This is all very well and good as an ideology but in reality it can only happen over generations of peaceful coexistence. Although I doubt this is effecting his stance on Zim. I think it has more to do with old loyalties and I suspect that Mugabe probably has some dirt on him regarding arms or diamonds or something.

[Asset]

Mugabe has just had his honorary Knighthood removed, annuled by queenie today

[mockney piers]

was it this one Quids? http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/britain-unveils-plan-to-criticise-mugabe-out-of-office--200806231038/

Or talking of energy, this one? http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/price-of-gas-to-rise%2c-say-men-who-set-the-price-of-gas--200806241045/

[DaveR]

It is extremely lazy to instinctively blame the US and Britain, particularly when, in this case, it is widely accepted that potential UN action has been frustrated by Chinese and Russian opposition, and Mugabe has consistently been backed (until very recently) by SADC neighbours.

[SeanMacGabhann]

That may be true DaveR, but we can only speak for our own countries - and the UK isn't exactly making a whole heap of noise about how they are being "frustrated by China and Russia" - suggesting that if the way was clear we wouldn't be beating any doors down to get there

(all sorts of metaphors going wrong there - sorry)

[mockney piers]

I don't think I did blame them. But the UK often cites cultural sensitivity to Colonialism in Africa as a barrier to intervention.

Didn't stop us in Iraq obviously, but hey, what ever works as an excuse.

The blame does indeed lay at an awful lot of doors though, the UN, China, South Africa, the EU as well as Britain. I don't think the US cares really does it, and why should it, now to do with them.

[Keef]

With regards the cricket, the culture secretary wrote to the cricket board to basically tell them what to do as I understand it.

[????]

Cheers Mockney - it was the first one. I think it hits the truth a bit - it seems that every few months for the last 5+years there's been a major BBC or ITV story on the imminent collapse of the Mugabe regime......doesn't lok any nearer now than in 1980 to me