Has the ED housing market reached the bottom yet ( II )

[macroban]

Southwark -13.1%

[Mick Mac]

The doom and gloom merchants have gone a bit quiet on this thread.

I'm off to find the double dip thread next.

[Michael Palaeologus]

I am selling and buying and it is definately on the up.

[SteveT]

House prices might be very different after Brown's lost the election to the 'oranges'.

[Saila]

We traded up and completely fluked the timing of it (feb last year)

i had a flat and my partner didn't own a property

we used the equity in my flat to buy a 3 bed and effectively 'geared up' (sorry) using the second mortgage belonging to my partner

so in the resulting rise we should have benefitted more than if we had stayed put

i'm firmly in the 'double-dip camp' though but we chose to gear up for baby reasons

death,dole,divorce

edit to say - is it me or does that cat look very alive? ;)

[Vick]

Prices in ED aren't dropping as far as I can tell, at least not significantly. At the beginning of the year they were definitely going up (as there was an extreme lack of supply).

[hellosailor]

I'm mystified. I bought my flat in East D 4 years ago and have just had it valued by 3 different estate agents, all of whom valued it above what I bought it for, which surprised me as I assumed it would have gone down or at the very best retained the value I paid. The highest valuation was 90 grand above what I paid 4 years ago - are they simply making it up to encourage me to put it on the market?

[????]

I just found this idiot from last year

[Mick Mac]

???? Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> or, to put it simply, Buy to let is @#$%&, as is

> "this is my pension" (aimed at your house). Marky

> I reckon your right a 50%ish fall and a long slow

> recovery

50% you say. It looks to me like ED property is currently trading around 2007 levels. Dulwich Village is ahead of 2007 levels it seems.

Buy to Let is back in fashion.

Discuss.....

(Love this thread, had to bring it back)

[Alan Medic]

???? Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> I just found this idiot from last year

Which idiot?

[benmorg]

Yes the top of the market has rebounded strongly - much more so in central London, where prices are more than 10% over 2007's peak (provided you ignore the fall in sterling).

I think it's all propped up by the record low bank rate. This supports house prices in various ways:

* holds back tide of repossessions

* improves affordability for buyers (particularly the equity rich, i.e. wealthy buyers at top of market)

* makes savings accounts useless & drives yield-hungry investors elsewhere

* makes inflation more likely and increases demand for assets like property & commodities (QE also had this effect)

All this could go into reverse if rates start to rise, but I think the BoE will hold them low for years as it's now targetting house prices in order to prop up our quango-banks, which would implode if house prices crashed again. It certainly isn't a free market.

Mick Mac Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> 50% you say. It looks to me like ED property is

> currently trading around 2007 levels. Dulwich

> Village is ahead of 2007 levels it seems.

>

> Buy to Let is back in fashion.

>

> Discuss.....

>

> (Love this thread, had to bring it back)

[benmorg]

Another factor might be the wealthy Chinese buyers flooding into central London and buying almost everything in sight. Chinese investors made stacks in Beijing during the last Olympics and may be hoping for another Olympic bubble in London. That would obviously be a temporary boost for prices..

Mick Mac Wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------

> 50% you say. It looks to me like ED property is

> currently trading around 2007 levels. Dulwich

> Village is ahead of 2007 levels it seems.

>

> Buy to Let is back in fashion.

>

> Discuss.....

[anna75]

Agreed that BoE is targetting house prices or, more accurately, the continued (?) solvency of UK banks/PLc.

It certainly isn't bothered about inflation and probably prefers quite a high rate to erode Govt debt.

Borrow borrow borrow if you can...

[Saila]

"certainly isn't bothered about inflation and probably prefers quite a high rate to erode Govt debt."

not just govt debt but personal debt too.

until we see wages inflation im not sure the boe will raise rates?

[anna75]

Saila, So said Money week's morning email this morning, yes.