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Betting Matters....

Mick Mac

By Mick Mac
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Posted

It means you can become the bookie Declan. Say Ireland are 6 (decimal) to win the Grand Slam and you don't think they've a cat in hells chance you can lay it...in effect offer 6. So if you lay ?2 you'll win just ?2 if they fail...if they get the Grand Slam you're ?10 down. Risky business.



BUT...you can use it for Hedging and trading more but that's an entirely different story

Narnia

Narnia

Posted
Posted
Thanks for that Quids but it leads me to ask why it's so risky? Say in any given footie match there are 3 possible outcomes, by laying you are banking on either of two of the three happening. If that's right is the risk you refer to being what losses you might incur if you are wrong?
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You're right but it's the odds that do you in as a small experiment I tried laying for ?2 the opposition of Liverpool/Man U/Arsenal/Chelsea a few years back...West Ham neat Man U once and Arsenal twice that season at odds of between 8-13. So costing me about ?20 a pop. Most weeks Kerching ?8 more quid in the bank but you only need one or two of the bigger upsets and you've a lot to claw back!
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Posted
Posted
You're right but it's the odds that do you in as a small experiment I tried laying for ?2 the opposition of Liverpool/Man U/Arsenal/Chelsea a few years back...West Ham neat Man U once and Arsenal twice that season at odds of between 8-13. So costing me about ?20 a pop. Most weeks Kerching ?8 more quid in the bank but you only need one or two of the bigger upsets and you've a lot to claw back!
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Posted
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Declan, the real thing about betting is that broadly the odds are normally 'about right' but slightly in favour of the bookmaker on Betfair they are probably more equal. But effectively the probability is about right. So to gamble successfully (traditionally -ie not trading) you need to look where you think the bookies have got their probability wrong - that is called value - and then go big. This takes a combination of balls, a knowledge better than the market maker and a bankroll ( a serious gambler will stack big on something that they think is priced wrong but offers value ie their probability = 6/1 the bookies 8/1 then in the long run this is likely to be a profitable play but requires a bankroll). To illustrate a professional gambler if offered 2/1 on a coin flip on the proviso they had to bet at least ?10,000 pounds would take it no problem, it's value...would you if you had it as spare cash?


there are exceptions to the market being about right IE England are always a stupidly short price for World Cups because so many people put money on them, and these offer opportunities too.

Mick Mac

Mick Mac

Posted
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Posted

Small bets on Mickleson and Leonard for the Masters as they seem both in reasonable form. Leaonard is 125/1 as he presumably has apoor masters record.



Declan - Woods is 4/1 for the Masters. I'm amazed at this. If you want to lay something this may be your chance.


I'm very tempted to lay this myself. In my view he is a broken man - but then he's proven to be unpredictable so who knows.


Rory Mc is 55 on betfair - worth a few quid but no recent form.

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