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The Bishop, The EDT, The Great Exhibition, the Actress or another?
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messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge 02 November, 2019 15:19

I've been quiet because as predicted by Mark Francois, I exploded when we didn't leave the EU on the 31st. A shame this didn't coincide with my 10,000th post as I could've killed two birds with one stone...

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by malumbu 02 November, 2019 18:10

I've found the vid of Francois exploding, it's quite graphic so please don't open if you are of a nervous disposition


messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sue 02 November, 2019 19:20

big grin

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by dulwichbloke 04 November, 2019 16:39

JohnL Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> dulwichbloke Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Lindsay Hoyle is the bookies' odds on
> favourite,
> > so you might yet get to vote.
>
> He is - but I saw a Sky News interview with Harman
> and she gave me the impression it was done and
> dusted (maybe that's the impression she wanted to
> give).

John, I may be speaking too soon, but it looks like you should be fine. After 1st round of voting:

Harman - 72
Sir Lindsay Hoyle - 211
Dame Eleanor Laing - 113
Chris Bryant - 98
Rosie Winterton - 46

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL 05 November, 2019 10:41

dulwichbloke Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> JohnL Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > dulwichbloke Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Lindsay Hoyle is the bookies' odds on
> > favourite,
> > > so you might yet get to vote.
> >
> > He is - but I saw a Sky News interview with
> Harman
> > and she gave me the impression it was done and
> > dusted (maybe that's the impression she wanted
> to
> > give).
>
> John, I may be speaking too soon, but it looks
> like you should be fine. After 1st round of
> voting:
>
> Harman - 72
> Sir Lindsay Hoyle - 211
> Dame Eleanor Laing - 113
> Chris Bryant - 98
> Rosie Winterton - 46

LOL - yes he won after 4 rounds with Chris Bryant in the run off and the reaction seems to be a range from 'Great' thorough 'He's a nice guy' to 'Tory stooge' (He's Labour by the way). I don't think he will be as theatrical (or as fun to watch) as Bercow.

Lots of comments I've heard on Harman I won't repeat here - she's definitely not popular with some people.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge 05 November, 2019 10:50

There's an unwritten convention that the Speaker's party allegiance alternates between the two main parties, and this time it was Labour's turn. Perhaps in the future the alternation will be between Leave and Remain(Rejoin)...

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by cella 05 November, 2019 11:17

There seems to be a lot of missing votes in the totals - presumably a lot didn't vote on an important issue?

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge 05 November, 2019 11:36

I read there were about 100 that didn't vote, and around 60 of them are not standing at the next election, so perhaps they felt it wasn't right for them to vote...

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by cella 05 November, 2019 13:32

HH putting herself forward for Speaker wasn't supported in the main by Momentum so guessing it was possibly LP MPs abstaining. It's a shame as she would have been effective in that role.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Loutwo 05 November, 2019 14:01

Very disappointed because Harriet Harman is a decent MP and a decent human being. She would have made a brilliant speaker, but it seems Corbyn and his madcap Islington gang wanted to prevent her from doing it.

Louisa.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by cella 05 November, 2019 15:10

Not necessarily. More about the group who have taken power in her local office who wanted what they saw as a full time presence in the Commons. And mysogony too.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL 05 November, 2019 16:12

cella Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> HH putting herself forward for Speaker wasn't
> supported in the main by Momentum so guessing it
> was possibly LP MPs abstaining. It's a shame as
> she would have been effective in that role.

I got a load of abuse on twitter when I supported her candidature (based on the old NCCL/Liberty stuff).

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge 06 November, 2019 10:33

In an age of slick promos and catchy soundbites, there's still nothing quite as refreshingly powerful as 'the empty chair' visual, prefer a tub of lard to a glass of water though smiling smiley... [twitter.com]

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge 07 November, 2019 11:47

Another visual trick, what you see on the TV news isn't always the whole picture...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIwT_ByWwAEUhwq.jpg:small

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge 08 November, 2019 11:58

This is not the drunk at a wedding reception that no one knows who he is but politely nods along to his incoherent ramblings, this is our Prime Minister. A Prime Minister who doesn't understand the deal he struck with the EU, states that NI will have a great deal because it will remain in a customs union with freedom of movement. Errrr, so if it's such a great deal why are you taking that all away from the rest of us?...[twitter.com]

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth 08 November, 2019 12:30

it's all the same ignorance (as in lack of knowledge/understanding) as we've seen over last 3-4 years

All of this has been pointed out multiple times - not enough people seem to want to hear

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by rahrahrah 08 November, 2019 12:45

What you have to understand about Boris Johnson is that he doesn't really care about the detail of the deal. It's not that he is incapable, it's that he is indifferent. He's just interested in getting elected. None of it will effect his life in any discernible way.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth 08 November, 2019 13:00

but he is behaving this way because he knows enough voters feel similarly

Which is just depressing

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL 08 November, 2019 13:08

One day Boris will make a mistake even he can't get out of. It's just a matter of time.

I just hope he takes Pritti Patel down with him .. Raab and Leadsome too.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge 08 November, 2019 13:26

3800...

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL 12 November, 2019 12:58

Labour has been hacked - obviously by the Russians (or some other nefarious group)

and Boris still won't release the data

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by dulwichbloke 12 November, 2019 14:46

It is reported that it was just a DDoS hack, so most unlike a state sponsored event.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL 12 November, 2019 17:23

dulwichbloke Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It is reported that it was just a DDoS hack, so
> most unlike a state sponsored event.

There was a bit of taking the mickey in my post as Owen Jones's twitter reaction was "This is extremely sinister" smiling smiley.

In other news latest Survation poll has the Tory lead down to 6 now - but Mr Farage's unilateral deal not included in those figures and not sure of the effect of what he's done.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by dulwichbloke 13 November, 2019 10:24

YouGov yesterday gave a 14 point lead - with polling done after the Brexit Party announcement.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge 13 November, 2019 10:47

Survation were the closest pollsters in the 2017 GE, doesn't mean they will be again, but YouGov pols have a rep for being outliers, they predicted a 7% lead for the Tories but it was only 2.5%...

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by dulwichbloke 13 November, 2019 10:52

True. YouGov tend to be on the high side. The Survation poll was rendered largely irrelevant though as it was before the Farage decision to pull candidates.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge 13 November, 2019 11:10

I'd be wary of polls this GE as it must be difficult to allow for the nuances of tactical voting, which you're going to see a lot of in this GE. The fact is the Tories need to gain seats, the BXP pulling out of seats the Tories already hold doesn't add to the gains needed, in fact the reality is that they are likely to lose a number of them to the Lib Dems and SNP regardless. So that leaves the Labour held marginals where the Tories have to make their gains, yet the BXP has said they won't pull out of these seats...

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by stepdown 13 November, 2019 13:44

diable rouge Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I'd be wary of polls this GE as it must be
> difficult to allow for the nuances of tactical
> voting, which you're going to see a lot of

If you poll voting intention it includes tactical voting considerations, they don't ask "which party best aligns with your politics" after all. To get an estimate of the seats you just poll a sample from each constituency.

The only hard bit is making sure your sample is representative.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL 13 November, 2019 14:54

stepdown Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> diable rouge Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I'd be wary of polls this GE as it must be
> > difficult to allow for the nuances of tactical
> > voting, which you're going to see a lot of
>
> If you poll voting intention it includes tactical
> voting considerations, they don't ask "which party
> best aligns with your politics" after all. To get
> an estimate of the seats you just poll a sample
> from each constituency.
>
> The only hard bit is making sure your sample is
> representative.

They then put the results of the poll through an algorithm (how likely is a 20 year old to vote, how likely is an 80 year old etc.). The algorithms differ by polling organisation.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge 13 November, 2019 22:11

Algorithms shmalgorithms...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJRaARRXsAAfO1z.jpg:small

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