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messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL January 18, 01:57PM

I suspect that some people supporting no deal (and I'm not suggesting that is those on this board) have money either ready or offshore and see an opportunity to buy up assets after a crash.

I also notice lots of leavers around who have already taken up dual nationality - so keeping freedom of movement (mind I'd bite your hand off for an Irish passport at present smiling smiley ).

There's a bit of 'I'm alright jack'

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth January 18, 02:04PM

. pointless account



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was january 18, 02:05pm by Sephiroth.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by StraferJack January 18, 02:05PM

It's a toxic combination of arrogance, inability to grasp consequence, a belief in unicorns, stubbornness, inability to empathise with others and many more - and they have been indulged for far to long. There is no talking sense with them, absolutely nothing you can say to deflect them from the carnage

Many leavers have changed their mind and if you listen to them speak they all have qualities completely absent from "no dealers" - they all have an ability to think, explain, balance, empathise

No Dealers are just beyond hope

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jules-and-Boo January 18, 02:19PM

I don't think anyone wants no deal - EU or UK - or any individuals - and hopefully the fact that it is a very possibly outcome will focus everyone involved in getting something that actually works.

What May has put forward is an equally unfeasible alternative. It's two extremes.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by StraferJack January 18, 02:21PM

If you think noone wants no deal, perhaps have a look at Question Time from last night

the reason no Brexit will ever be doable is because noone can say what it IS. As soon as anyone tries (and by all means feel free to give your version) there will be other leavers who disagree with you. Because Leaving is not based on anything real

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by StraferJack January 18, 02:26PM

Jools

At 1 o clock today Trinnydad wrote

"
Walk away now because the EU will slowly fall apart in time anyway. The future for Euro is already looking very shakey with Italy and France's fiscal delinquency.

4 minutes later you posted simply:

"I totally agree."

and now you are saying "I don't think anyone wants no deal "

What gives?


as for your post "easy to criticise if you don't come up with an alternative" - you've nailed Brexit in a nutshell



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was january 18, 02:26pm by StraferJack.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JoeLeg January 18, 02:35PM

Jules-and-Boo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I like it when people criticize but are not able
> to come up with an alternative.

You what mate? Seriously? Really?

I voted Remain. I lost. I accepted it.

It is not my job or role in society to 'come up with an alternative'. That's for Leave voters. I didn't want to Leave, I still don't, but I'm being pulled along with the (slim) majority. That's just life.

But don't sit there and think that I have to find another path. You voted Leave? You wanted it? You solve it.

And I'm allowed to criticise. I voted, therefore I'm allowed to complain about the outcome. Democracy, remember?

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JoeLeg January 18, 02:37PM

Jules-and-Boo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don't think anyone wants no deal - EU or UK - or
> any individuals -

Absolute crap. From Jacob and Boris and IDS down to people being interviewed in the street by major newspapers every day, there's a lot of support for "walk away now', 'No Deal!", "WTO now!". If you think otherwise then you're kidding yourself.

and hopefully the fact that it
> is a very possibly outcome will focus everyone
> involved in getting something that actually
> works.
>
> What May has put forward is an equally unfeasible
> alternative. It's two extremes.

Then I look forward to YOUR alternative. Because all you've said so far is that you think we should leave with No Deal.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by alex_b January 18, 02:40PM

Jules-and-Boo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don't think anyone wants no deal - EU or UK - or
> any individuals - and hopefully the fact that it
> is a very possibly outcome will focus everyone
> involved in getting something that actually
> works.
>
> What May has put forward is an equally unfeasible
> alternative. It's two extremes.

First, I don't think they're two extremes: May's Brexit with all her red lines is about as hard a Brexit as you could get while still getting a deal. If implemented the lack of single market access will devastate the City and the lack of Customs Union will destroy cross border just in time manufacturing.

Leaving that aside, why don't you summarise what you think is a deal "that works". Be specific, no slogans and "cake and eat it" demands. Specify what of the current arrangements you no longer want and what you're prepared to lose in exchange. Bonus points if you can suggest something that the EU would also see as a reasonable tradeoff.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JoeLeg January 18, 02:51PM

Also, while you're answering alex_b, can you include a forecast for me of how we can solve the problem of the low-skilled workforce in this country?

As I've been frequently lectured by Leave voters, the reason young British people don't want to do those jobs is because the wages are too low (never mind that the UK government set the minimum wage, not the EU). But how does that square with the often-reported experience of employers in those fields that UK people actually don't want to do those jobs?

How do we fill those positions? Surely the only way to address those claims is to increase the minimum wage further, even though it will have a knock-on effect on prices as private business compensates in order to avoid a further squeeze on profits (which they will do because business is business)?

Otherwise we'll just end up importing low-skilled workers from non-EU locations. Have you noticed that as EU migration dropped non-EU migration has risen? Coincidence? I doubt it...

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by keano77 January 18, 03:07PM

StraferJack ended his rant with

ď...meaningless concepts like ...sovereignty...Ē

Obviously not a student of political theory

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by StraferJack January 18, 03:15PM

do you mean I don't understand what sovereignty means? Because I do

Or do you mean I don't understand why it's important when people say they are getting it back?

I'm saying you have sovereignty within teh EU - just as the other EU countries do. you give up a little bit of it for the benefits of mutual cooperation. Just as you will with any future trade deals

So saying you will get sovereignty back IS meaningless

You will have LESS sovereignty (in any meaningful sense) after leaving the EU



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was january 18, 03:16pm by StraferJack.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by TheCat January 18, 03:43PM

JoeLeg Wrote:
>
> It is not my job or role in society to 'come up
> with an alternative'. That's for Leave voters. I
> didn't want to Leave, I still don't, but I'm being
> pulled along with the (slim) majority. That's just
> life.
>
> But don't sit there and think that I have to find
> another path. You voted Leave? You wanted it? You
> solve it.
>
> And I'm allowed to criticise. I voted, therefore
> I'm allowed to complain about the outcome.
> Democracy, remember?

Joe....i've generally got a lot of time for your comments as they're invariably evenhanded, even if I dont agree...

But I genuinely dont understand the above viewpoint from many remainers. It strikes me as petulant and spiteful (yes, im sure you can brand many leavers as petulant too!)

Of course you are free to disagree/criticize all you like....but as you point out, you're being dragged along anyway...assuming you cant change that fact...why not try and have some say in the manner in which you are being dragged?

The analogy I would use is something like this....lets say I dont want to go to my in-laws this weekend. But my other half forces me to go. So my choice then is to make the best of a sh!tty weekend, or I spend the whole weekend complaining about how I didnt want to go to my in-laws and demanding that my other half tidy up/look after the kids/come up with something to do/drive the conversation because 'you were the one that made me come'....

Assuming I choose the latter, all that's going to do is ensure I 'definitely' have a shitty weekend, and shitty relationship with my other half....

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by StraferJack January 18, 03:51PM

Comparing being worse off in every way with a trip to the inlaws - Christ

Medicine shortages - that's not a trip to the inlaws
Families having to fine several hundred quid to APPLY (not register) but to APPLY to stay in the country, even if they have lived here for decades - not a trip to the inlaws
Return of border in Ireland - not a trip to the inlaws

on and on

A trip to the inlaws? You are driving into a gang shoot-out and telling us to enjoy the ride

All the while you vaccilate between "it will be great!!!" and telling us "stop whining, you don't get it"

But when we get blown up in the car, will you take responsibility??

Of course you won't. You will blame us for breaking your concentration. The gang for shooting. But not your dumb-ass decision



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was january 18, 03:51pm by StraferJack.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jules-and-Boo January 18, 03:51PM

ok, let's have everyone's suggestions for a working agreement, rather than just digging at each other

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by StraferJack January 18, 03:52PM

You didn't listen Jools

There is no working agreement that people will agree on - it involves trade offs every which way and leavers can't define what would work

Retainers point out what does work - the best possible position in EU membership with several opt outs

EVerything else is LESS - and for no gain



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was january 18, 03:53pm by StraferJack.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JoeLeg January 18, 03:55PM

Jules-and-Boo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ok, let's have everyone's suggestions for a
> working agreement, rather than just digging at
> each other


You first. This is your sandbox, after all.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by TheCat January 18, 03:57PM

StraferJack Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Comparing being worse off in every way with a trip
> to the inlaws - Christ
>
> Medicine shortages - that's not a trip to the
> inlaws
> Families having to fine several hundred quid to
> APPLY (not register) but to APPLY to stay in the
> country, even if they have lived here for decades
> - not a trip to the inlaws
> Return of border in Ireland - not a trip to the
> inlaws
>
> on and on
>
> A trip to the inlaws? You are driving into a gang
> shoot-out and telling us to enjoy the ride
>
> All the while you vaccilate between "it will be
> great!!!" and telling us "stop whining, you don't
> get it"
>
> But when we get blown up in the car, will you take
> responsibility??
>
> Of course you won't. You will blame us for
> breaking your concentration. The gang for
> shooting. But not your dumb-ass decision

Well....you sound like a reasonable, rational chap, who's open to civilised discussion.....

Also...im guessing you're not familiar with the term 'analogy'.....

but anyway...enjoy ruminating around in your little ball of anger....I hope it makes you feel better

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jules-and-Boo January 18, 04:00PM

on page 71 of a post? I don't think it's just me that is unhappy with the situation Joe.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by StraferJack January 18, 04:03PM

"Well....you sound like a reasonable, rational chap, who's open to civilised discussion..... "

As I pointed out - after 3 years of this nonsense, civilised discussion is wasted on people who still think this is a good idea - especially people willing to commit to no deal

"Also...im guessing you're not familiar with the term 'analogy'..... "

And you will be aware that I countered your (weak) analogy with another (still weak, but more accurate) analogy.

Does you commuting the country to this make you feel better?

How do you answer problems I raised?

Medicine shortages - that's not a trip to the inlaws
Families having to fine several hundred quid to APPLY (not register) but to APPLY to stay in the country, even if they have lived here for decades - not a trip to the inlaws
Return of border in Ireland - not a trip to the inlaws

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by TheCat January 18, 04:05PM

StraferJack Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> How do you answer problems I raised?
>
> Medicine shortages - that's not a trip to the
> inlaws
> Families having to fine several hundred quid to
> APPLY (not register) but to APPLY to stay in the
> country, even if they have lived here for decades
> - not a trip to the inlaws
> Return of border in Ireland - not a trip to the
> inlaws


You clearly haven't met my in-laws.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by keano77 January 18, 04:12PM

Iíve never looked into it but I donít understand why there would be shortages of medicines.

Do the EU gangsters control the supply, on some country-lines basis? Why canít we buy them from elsewhere eg the US? The yanks pop pills until theyíre coming out of their ears so should have plenty.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JoeLeg January 18, 04:18PM

TheCat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> Joe....i've generally got a lot of time for your
> comments as they're invariably evenhanded, even if
> I dont agree...
>
> But I genuinely dont understand the above
> viewpoint from many remainers. It strikes me as
> petulant and spiteful (yes, im sure you can brand
> many leavers as petulant too!)

How is it either of those things to point out that - as this is not a path I wanted - I should not be expected to suggest a path out of this? I think it's very reasonable to say that as there are other people who wanted this, they are the ones who should find the right course for all of us. Moreover I believe that in the aftermath of the vote, very few Leave supporters wanted to hear anything that Remainers had to say. There are several reasons for that, and while the Remain campaign bears the blame for some of them, there was a certain bellicose sense of invulnerability on the part of the Leave campaign which - publicly at least - was proclaiming that this was going to be plain sailing henceforth.
In summary, I stand by my belief that the advocates of this change must be the architects of its success.

>
> Of course you are free to disagree/criticize all
> you like....but as you point out, you're being
> dragged along anyway...assuming you cant change
> that fact...why not try and have some say in the
> manner in which you are being dragged?

Partly because, as I said above, my voice (as well as that of many Remain voters) is not welcome in the general public debate.
Also because I really don't know what I would say. From where I stand I can only see mutual incompatible positions.
The EU, the Hard Brexit group and the People's Vote/Second Ref group all want things that simply cannot be reconciled. Rory Stewart - a reasonable individual if ever there was one - was on QT saying that red lines can be moved, but the DUP is never going to budge, nor is the ERG. The EU says it won't compromise over the Four Freedoms, but in order to satisfy the Hard Brexiters those freedoms cannot be continued, especially Freedom of Movement. The Labour Party only really wants another GE - heaven knows why as it won't win anything, but that's a different debate - and has no actual position on Brexit; those within it's ranks who support a second vote are more vocal than effective. Corbin knows if he comes out for it Labour are done and dusted.

>
> The analogy I would use is something like
> this....lets say I dont want to go to my in-laws
> this weekend. But my other half forces me to go.
> So my choice then is to make the best of a sh!tty
> weekend, or I spend the whole weekend complaining
> about how I didnt want to go to my in-laws and
> demanding that my other half tidy up/look after
> the kids/come up with something to do/drive the
> conversation because 'you were the one that made
> me come'....
>
> Assuming I choose the latter, all that's going to
> do is ensure I 'definitely' have a shitty weekend,
> and shitty relationship with my other half....

I'm sorry but that's not a great analogy. At the end of the weekend you can go back to your life and try to avoid the next visit. Brexit is not so transitory.


I despair, I really do, at the insouciance with which many Leave voters seem to approach this stage of the proceedings. We are ten weeks from leaving the EU as it stands, and as it stands we will crash out. If there's an A50 extension then great, I suppose, but if May can't come up with something fast then it makes no difference materially. We'll be in this same place 'x' amount of time down the line. Personally I think No Deal is what a vocal minority of the Leave campaign wanted all along, and May's incompetence has only served to bolster them as time passes.

Promises about how easy it would be to negotiate a deal were made by the Leave campaign. Those promises are not being fulfilled, and it not up to those who voted otherwise to try and help - particularly when it's been made very clear for some time now that we should "shut up and accept it" - language which I think you would agree is only divisive (I concede that cuts both ways, and do not excuse either side in that respect). I also think it's credulous to blame the EU for playing hardball. Credulous and naive. Of course they would stick up fore themselves.

I have no idea what's going to happen.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Trinnydad January 18, 04:18PM

@ StraferJack

You seem to have swallowed all the doses of Project Fear, but, setting that aside, can you tell us how the £49bn was calculated - apart from the on-going joint aid projects the UK committed to. Not forgetting of course the massive pension funds for the EU staff?

If you can provide a list of the top 10 or so items, that would help a great deal in putting this ripoff into perspective.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JoeLeg January 18, 04:22PM

keano77 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Iíve never looked into it but I donít understand
> why there would be shortages of medicines.
>
> Do the EU gangsters control the supply, on some
> country-lines basis? Why canít we buy them from
> elsewhere eg the US? The yanks pop pills until
> theyíre coming out of their ears so should have
> plenty.

I'm not entirely sure why this should be either - I can't see anyone being a jobsworth over life-saving medicines when it comes down to it. That said the pharmaceutical companies seem to think this is a thing, and the govt has slapped them all with NDA's, which says to me there's an issue somewhere.

Personally I wouldn't want to touch anything coming out of the USA - the last thing we want is any more of their 'healthcare' system popping up over here.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was january 18, 04:25pm by JoeLeg.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by StraferJack January 18, 04:29PM

Trinnydad

you can say project fear all you like - that helps noone. And in the aftermath you simply going "whoops" isn't going to cut it. If "our" fears come to pass what will you do? You will blame someone and I think I know who

(if we crash out and there is little disruption I will be relieved and happily hold my hands up but then I won't have harmed anyone)

But is it project fear to say families who have lived here for decades have to pay hundreds of pounds to APPLY to stay here? Because that is reality. That is happening now. You think that's OK do you?

As for your repeated claim of £49b despite being told it wasn't that much, here is the breakdown. Only perspective you need is that walking away from it destroys your credibility as a country

[fullfact.org]



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was january 18, 04:38pm by StraferJack.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by StraferJack January 18, 04:36PM

"Iíve never looked into it but I donít understand why there would be shortages of medicines. "

Of course you haven't keano

Medicines across the 28 EU states are licensed - everyone of those 28 member states has agreed to not change what's in them and because we are trade partners with license and agreements there is no need to keep checking

UK leaves the EU and becomes a third party - it is no longer covered by license agreements (because THAT'S WHAT IT WANTS! SWEET SWEET FREEDOM!!!)

No being covered means additional checks. Coupled with transportation disruptions, this leads to shortages. the EU aren't witholding or bullying anyone or anything

UK might argue "well we won't change anything in medicines. trust us. No need to be uptight old chaps"

But you will be trying to do a deal with USA remember? And they will want some of those medicines changed to fit with their different standards

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by alex_b January 18, 04:42PM

Ok, Iíll bite. I would be OK with the UK joining EFTA as an individual member and trying to join a customs union (or other customs facilitation agreement). I would hope to reach bilateral agreements on fisheries and agriculture either as part of the customs arrangement or separately. Broadly Iíd hope to remain the status quo in both agreements. I donít think itís better than our current membership but we would have left the EU and it would protect us from the worst of the downsides. I think this is a plan the EU might agree to, although I donít know if the other EFTA members would agree. It might be able to get through Parliament if Labour backed it, but otherwise not. At this stage the current withdrawal agreement would have to stand, though the political declaration would be rewritten.

Now Iíve made a proposal, how about one of the brexiteers gives their version of a proposal?

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL January 18, 04:43PM

StraferJack Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> UK might argue "well we won't change anything in
> medicines. trust us. No need to be uptight old
> chaps"

But we're not paying any of our share of commitments we agreed to.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by StraferJack January 18, 04:47PM

Alex - a lot of that sounds sensible. And if it's where we landed I wouldn't be too upset. But it asks an awful lot of too many countries to, again, "Trust us", when it will probably simply lead to outrage from brexiteers and those countries wathcing us have another meltdown for several more months (which we don't have)

John - sorry, I don't quite get the gist of what you are saying there. I think I agree with you and you are making same point as me?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was january 18, 04:47pm by StraferJack.

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