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messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by keano77 February 07, 05:21PM

Perspective Sephiroth, perspective. The UK will not be destroyed.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by malumbu February 07, 06:51PM

I'll go with this bloke: Mr Smith said Brexit, even on Mr Corbyn's terms, "would still shrink our economy, cost jobs and lost investment, indulge nativist nostalgia and isolationism... and pave the way for another austerity Tory government".

Obviously creative use of soundbites by the British Brexit-bashing Corporation...

Indulging nativist nostalgia and isolationism worries me more that the potential financial impact

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by robbin February 07, 07:00PM

The UK needs to have some bottle, make it clear the UK is leaving, whether with or without a deal and mean it. Merkel and others (obviously I don't include the eurocrats in Brussels in this) are already looking like they are worried and might be prepared to be more reasonable if a no deal exit is the only alternative. Closer to exit day (maybe even on or very close to it) they would probably start negotiating in earnest. It's how negotiations work, in the real world.

The problem with all that is, May and her incompetent crew of civil servant 'negotiators' have already fundamentally messed up and prejudiced the UK's position by (i) prematurely triggering Art 50, (ii) agreeing to negotiate a WA without any attempt to even start negotiating a trade deal and (iii) (and this is the one that makes me really shudder) signing up to the WA containing a backstop that (a) means we would be completely at the mercy of the EU in terms of exiting it, but most importantly b) removes ALL negotiating motivation from the EU on a future trade deal.

Given that the EU wants the UK to stay in the CU and given that so long as there is no trade deal that is precisely what would happen, far from being motivated to do a deal, the EU would positively be motivated not to do a deal and simply to keep the UK in the CU indefinitely (or insist on very onerous terms in a trade deal in return for being 'allowed' out of the CU). For anybody to think that a non-binding short political statement
of wishes would have any bearing on whether or not a trade deal is done, when the alternative is that the EU would keep what it wants, is utterly bonkers. Theresa May must be mind-bogglingly stupid to think otherwise, or there must be some other agenda. She even had legal advice that this is the legal consequence of such an arrangement (but anybody reading the WA would have seen that was clear anyway).

So, it's time to stop *$erring about. We are where we are and the EU will only take negotiations seriously if they truly believe that the UK means what is says. The problem is at the moment they still don't (although Merkel- who let's face it is the real power behind Brussels - appears to be shifting ground). That's almost certainly to do with pressure from her businesses who are starting to fear for their future. The latest from the German economy is not good news for them and their car industry above all others is very concerned, given that they export more cars to the UK than anywhere else in the world. Don't forget that the motor industry in Germany is not like ours - it is a massive player in their economy - they export almost twice as many cars as the second highest exporter - Japan and three times as much as the USA. You think they want tariffs on those exports? They are already suffering from the shift in the pound's value which makes their exports to us more expensive/reduces profit margin for them.

The same goes for Ireland. They stand to lose massively. The UK is by far their largest export market, but in addition, their economy is tiny in comparison to the UK and can ill afford to take a hit. It was only 8 years ago that they had to be bailed out to the tune of £75 billion or their financial system would have collapsed. They still owe about 30-35 billion of that debt, I think. Whatever the precise sum, Ireland still owes more debt per capita than any other country in the Eurozone (even more than Greece).

Then there's the economic woes of various other EU countries - Italy (still on the verge of a financial meltdown and banking crisis), Spain (also with high debt and horrendous unemployment), Greece (enough said), France (employment well over double that in the UK).

People often point out that as a collective those countries are stronger - well, to some extent that is true, but as with most things the argument cuts both ways - when considering how worried individual countries are, the argument is a red herring. For example, businesses exporting to the UK from say, Spain, are going to care only about their businesses - they won't be thinking that the pain is spread throughout the EU so that's fine. It will hurt them just the same as if they were a sole country not in a trading block.

So, we are stuck with the mess created by May over the last 2 years. Yes, we probably need more time to be completely ready for a no deal exit, but could cope without more time if push comes to shove, by steps such as HMRC have taken by deciding to carry out no checks on most goods for 18 months or so. We could ask for a delay of 6 months or more, but I'm not sure whether that would help in the long run, because it would mean a longer period of uncertainty and posturing and could end up with us not being materially no further forward in preparations. It also send the EU a message that the UK is not serious about leaving (or at least that's what they would probably take away from it).



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit was february 07, 07:08pm by robbin.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by robbin February 07, 07:03PM

Sephiroth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> One of those groups will be wrong - and only one
> of those groups will be able to say "ah well" if
> they are wrong.If it's the other they will have
> destroyed a country for generations and risked
> peace (for not much reward if any)

Your repetitive use of hysterical hyperbole suggests you have lost all perspective and reason. The real world is different, I think, to what you are used to.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was february 07, 07:03pm by robbin.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth February 07, 08:15PM

This is not a negotiation in any normal sense. Usually people negotiate to come to a mutual understanding And agree on how much “sovereignty” they will give up to get that deal

What we have here is a single country trying to scam a new treaty. No amount of billy big bollix bullshit from “remainers” (let’s not forget that) like Robbin will change that dynamic.

And whatever band-aid is applies to prevent an actual catastrophe will leave no one better off. This is all some craziness for no gain. The rest of the world knows it.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was february 07, 08:51pm by Sephiroth.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth February 07, 08:18PM

I suspect that even behind the coked-up, city-worker bravado from the likes of Robbin - they know. They know

But can’t lose front can ya? Like a belligerent topless Brit in a Tallin town square singing “no surrender” - they are all in on myth

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jenny1 February 07, 08:27PM

Sephiroth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I've said many a time - this country just doesn't
> get referendums
>
> The idea that a narrow vote, involving illegal
> money and a massive upheaval to this country (and
> many others) has exactly the same mandate 3 years
> on after everyone involved has buggered off is for
> the birds (or, the willfully stubborn)

Indeed. Which I think simply reinforces the point, made earlier, that the referendum was never a serious attempt to fully explore the UK's place in or out of the EU. There was no proper presentation and debate of different models for the future shape of the country informing a specific option on the ballot paper (which, as Alan Medic raises above, would have been required in Canadian law). Again, at the risk of repeating myself, if you'd wanted to do the job properly you'd probaby have started with the 'citizen council' model which informed the deep and prolonged debate over abortion in Ireland. But I don't think anyone would mistake Cameron for a serious man. He was simply attempting a quick fix to his own internal party rifts.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was february 07, 08:28pm by Jenny1.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by malumbu February 07, 08:31PM

Listen to the Radio 4 programme on now - I'll post a link, on the impact on the car industry. There's some usual misinterpretation, eg government policy on the sector (not talking Brexit here). But overall there is a strong enough message that this facks the industry. A less alarmist stance here but read between the lines: [www.smmt.co.uk]

Now I'm not that sympathetic to the car industry with their poor environmental credentials and the like but it is pretty important to UK plc. Can those scrapping at the moment give their views on something pretty important and a litmus test for the impacts of Brexit? [www.bbc.co.uk]

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jenny1 February 07, 08:32PM

..



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was february 07, 09:22pm by Jenny1.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by malumbu February 07, 08:33PM

scrap is slang for fighting

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by cella February 07, 11:45PM

Malumbu - big yawn yet again...

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by malumbu February 08, 09:50AM

Morning sweetie, any plans later?

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by cella February 08, 10:13AM

Many thanks but none involving you. I imagine most people find you very annoying.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL February 08, 10:32AM

Redundancies at work today - can't say Brexit related but sad.

I do think there is a trend now to roll back virtual teams and base like for like in a single country (the opposite of the trend a few years back .. why ? ) ... and why choose a UK that you can't be sure is truly stable and costs more - our stability was a selling point.

When this is over - however it ends - there needs to be a clear out and some change at the top (and I don't just mean a change of leader).

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Jules-and-Boo February 08, 12:05PM

yes I agree - recent behavior has shown how unprofessional and incompetent many of these politicans are.

I look forward to mass resignation and an influx of highly skilled professionals who pride themselves on their negotiating skills and personal integrity, who care deeply about their positions and are committed to delivering their objectives.

I look forward to winning the lottery, which may be more realistic.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by cella February 08, 12:46PM

Agree many should go but then they won't be around to take the wrap for the undoubtedly awful consequences. Another reason for not understanding why Corbyn is so keen for a General Election - who would want to have to mop up all of that?

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by robbin February 08, 01:32PM

A follow up on the point about the EU countries' economic problems (it's not the most informative article on the subject but if it's not the Guardian I refer to presumably it would be dismissed as more right wing crypto fascist fantasy):

[www.theguardian.com]

[www.bloomberg.com]

Basically, the German economy is going into recession and its export business is tanking - factory orders down a whopping 7% in the last year and down 1.6% just in December 2018.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was february 08, 01:37pm by robbin.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth February 08, 01:46PM

Not sure we can call Larry Elliott an objective voice on Brexit matters - he's hardcore lexiter

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by robbin February 08, 01:47PM

malumbu Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Listen to the Radio 4 programme on now - I'll post
> a link, on the impact on the car industry. There's
> some usual misinterpretation, eg government policy
> on the sector (not talking Brexit here). But
> overall there is a strong enough message that this
> facks the industry. A less alarmist stance here
> but read between the lines:
> [www.smmt.co.uk]
>
Interesting, thanks - missed Radio 4 though.

By way of comparison, the UK automotive industry accounts for 4% of UK GDP.

In Germany it accounts for an astonishing 14% of GDP - the largest part of which is exports to the UK.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by diable rouge February 08, 01:49PM

2600...

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by robbin February 08, 01:55PM

Sephiroth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not sure we can call Larry Elliott an objective
> voice on Brexit matters - he's hardcore lexiter

Predictable denial - what is not objective about the economic data?! Has Larry Elliott made those figures up then as part of the pro-Brexit conspiracy?

Do you deny the figures that are quoted? Do you disagree that Germany is following Italy into recession?

(the latest figures come from Deutsche Bank and the German government)

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by robbin February 08, 02:01PM

In anticipation of a predictable suggestion that the Italy/EU figures are some sort of pro-Brexit conspiracy, this is from a Vice President of the European Commission (taken from CNBC):

With its immense debt pile and potential budget blowout, Italy is a risk first and foremost to itself, Valdis Dombrovskis, a vice president at the European Commission told CNBC.

"Fragility in Italy's economy needs to be addressed," Dombrovski told CNBC's Willem Marx in Brussels Wednesday.

"Given the high level of Italy's public debt, and Italy has the highest debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio in the EU after Greece, it's important that Italy puts its debt-to-GDP ratio on a downwards trajectory. And this is something which we have (been) consistently emphasizing and we think that this is important," he said.

Italy's debt pile of 2.3 trillion euros ($2.6 trillion) is "first and foremost (it's) a risk factor for Italy itself, but one that needs to be addressed," he added.

Italy's 2019 spending plans, that have caused a furor in recent months with the Commission — the EU's executive arm — were one area of particular concern, he noted.

Dombrovskis' comments come as the European Commission cut its forecast for Italy's growth in 2019 to 0.2 percent, from a previous prediction (made last November) of 1.2 percent. In 2020, it predicts Italy's economy will grow 0.8 percent.

The Commission also lowered its prospects for the euro area as a whole. The 19-member bloc is set to grow 1.3 percent this year, from a previous forecast of 1.9 percent.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was february 08, 02:01pm by robbin.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by robbin February 08, 02:02PM

I appreciate these figures don't fit the hysterical one-sided narrative.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit was february 08, 02:08pm by robbin.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth February 08, 02:05PM

I'm not denying the data, but unlike Elliot or you, I don't think it's somehow beneficial to UK bargaining

The data is the data - but part from not being pretty, what is your point with it?

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by robbin February 08, 02:08PM

Seriously?

Do you genuinely need that explaining?

See my post from 7pm yesterday, if you do (paras 4-7).



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit was february 08, 02:11pm by robbin.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by Sephiroth February 08, 02:30PM

I read it - it was a vague reheating of "they need us more than them / German car manufacturers will save us"

You still don't get it - the EU is not coming to save the UK. They recognize all the bluff and bluster. Businesses in Spain are not putting any meaningful pressure on their Govt to cut UK a deal

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by robbin February 08, 02:53PM

You know that, do you?

You are well connected, Nemesis!

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by malumbu February 08, 02:54PM

................

>
> here
> > but read between the lines:
> > [www.smmt.co.uk]
> >
> Interesting, thanks - missed Radio 4 though.
>
> By way of comparison, the UK automotive industry
> accounts for 4% of UK GDP.
>
> In Germany it accounts for an astonishing 14% of
> GDP - the largest part of which is exports to the
> UK.

Would you not argue that UK motor manufacturing is an example of where we want to be as a nation - cutting edge, skilled workforce, niche position, focusing at what we are good at and encouraging inward investment particularly from Asia? Otherwise where is our economy going?

There is a great comment on the BBC website "with all the money we are saving from leaving the EU we could set up our own car factory, and make sure that the public sector have use these cars". Perhaps Iran is a model where the Hillman Hunter factory was carted off in the 1970s so that they had an Iranian car, twenty years out of date, that the Iranians would drive. Or maybe relocate the Tribant or Wartburg factories. OK a silly example but seems to exemplify the belief of many.

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by JohnL February 08, 03:14PM

"They come from the EU and if you don’t have them, you can’t search people."

Oooh maybe not one of my favorite brexit stockpiles - rubber gloves that is.

[www.theguardian.com]

messageRe: Brexit View
Posted by robbin February 08, 03:26PM

Ah, the Hillman Hunter - great memories!

I think the UK motor industry is doing pretty well comparatively, but it will need to up it's game on autonomous and electric vehicle development, because that's the future (the near future). The Germans have lagged way behind on this, which is why they are looking at having a very hard time soon.

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