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mikeb

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Everything posted by mikeb

  1. Yes, so far as I can tell at the moment and without any inside information. However, it would not be unusual for interest cover to be tight at the start of a deal, increasing as growth provides additional cashflows. If this growth doesn't appear ... Also, Mizuho and Bank of America might also be pushing for some more lender-friendly terms to enable them to sell down their debt (even though they might not have the legal right to get these terms from BC Partners). This could lead to the deal structure changing. Finally, Foxtons is a relatively small deal compared to some that are in a similar position e.g. Boots, AA, Intelsat (where BC Partners paid $5bn for a majority stake).
  2. I presume you're referring to the Guardian article at the weekend? Jon Moulton has a point although I think it could take some time to play out. Mizuho and Bank of America provided 100% of the debt for BC Partners' acquisition in the expectation that they would be able to bring other banks in (i.e. syndicate) later to share the exposure. However, from news articles in August, it looks like they are struggling to interest other banks due to a combination of (a) the general turbulence in the markets (b) this deal looks particularly highly-leveraged and © the return on the loan now looks inadequate. The banks can attempt to fix © by offering some more money to prospective partner banks but only up to a certain point. BC Partners probably has a few options - not least of which is to ignore it since it's legally the banks' problem. However, coming back to Moulton's arguments, Foxtons is unlikely to come a cropper unless it trips a banking covenant. Under its current debt structure, it will not have to repay any of its debt for at least 7 years. It should be relatively protected from higher interest rates. It is also likely that its covenant package is pretty weak. All of this means that even if Foxtons doesn't perform as expected, which I would have thought is quite likely, it is likely to have a grace period before it gets serious. Of course, if they've really stuffed up their business plans or documentation then it could come tumbling down much quicker e.g. the acquisition of Esporta gyms took only 6 months to go tits up!
  3. M&B own the Plough and the Harvester. Also Crown & Greyhound and Alleyn's Head in se21 and the Pheonix at Denmark Hill station. In terms of pubcos, they're better than some although obviously not a patch on some of the local operators.
  4. They hire out the upstairs of Beauberry separately. It's a bit worn but would look quite good covered in flowers. Not in East Dulwich I know, but Eltham Palace is pretty grand.
  5. From the Land Registry, Paul Tuck of 13 Camberwell Green owns both 6 and 26 LL. This also appears to be the main office of Parkhill Homes. Maurice - if you want to check out Camberwell Gn, the Land Registry can be searched by address but not proprietor. Per Companies House, Parkhill Homes Ltd is owned 50 / 50 by Paul Tuck and Patrick Lynch. Parkhill's most recent accounts (March 2006) reveal little. Paul Tuck is also a director of Questchoice Ltd, which seems to be in the hotel business, and of City Nights Ltd, which seems to run bars. Patrick Lynch is also a director of Lynch Construction Ltd, which is now dormant. Anyone had any direct business experience of the outfit?
  6. I don't think how much pain a foetus can feel is necessarily the yardstick - otherwise infanticide could be OK in certain situations.
  7. I don't think there's any room on the Jubilee Line by the time it gets to Canada Water and I'm sure the East London line extension will not help this. This new Blackfriars station sounds intriguing though ... Love the thought of "several" people find this more convenient - perhaps they would all fit in one taxi?
  8. CWALD - my point was that in terms of sentience, there is nothing particular unique about the moment of birth. Your other point is also open to debate as well: does a woman's choice _always_ outweigh the interests of a foetus? It's worth considering which rights are in question: on the foetus's side, something very close to the right to life; on the woman's side, something more amorphous. Does this moral calculus also apply after the child is born, as well as before birth?
  9. Good - a nice uncontroversial subject as my first foray into the Lounge. I hope I don't offend anyone. Fear 'n boozin - I'm not sure you can ignore the "moral question". If you do then I think you abdicate your right to participate in any discussion of whether abortion is acceptable or wrong. And I don't think you really do meant to, since you go on to talk about "needless" criminality, which implies some balance of the impact to someone from being criminalised someone vs the potential benefit to others (or indeed possibly to themselves) from doing so. And CWALD, I also can't agree that "A baby is not a seperate entity until it is expelled from the mother and takes its first breath". An unborn baby at 8 3/4 months (whoops, just called it a "baby") seems about as active and sentient as a one day old baby, except that you can't hear it cry and you feed it in a different way. This doesn't mean that conception is obviously the place to start either (although it's possibly the only logical alternative) since it's very hard to have any feelings for a collection of subdividing cells. I'm not a Catholic but the church has at least thought about making their position on this consistent with the related issues about the morality of casual sex, capital punishment, contraception, mind / body distinction etc. There's plenty in the catechism which is at best debatable but those Jesuits certainly could argue ... (edit) just seen the comment above - I'm male too. What's the male / female split in the Lounge normally?
  10. Just a reminder that the closing date for comments on Network Rail's proposals is 26 October. Comments can be sent by email to [email protected]. The consultation document is on the Network Rail website.
  11. So what arguments can be made to NR? * Saying that Denmark Hill has multiple bus services to London Bridge that could be used instead ignores the fact that congestion renders these pretty useless for all but the most leisurely traveller, even though Denmark Hill is firmly within zone 2. TfL's website suggests that getting to London Bridge by bus from Denmark Hill (4 miles) at 8am would take 45-52 minutes (average of less then 5mph). A train from Dartford to London Bridge (18 miles) at the same time takes 31-45 minutes. * The problem seems to be short platforms at Clapham High St and Wandsworth Rd - I'm sure it's fairly common to hear announcements on trains saying "due to short platforms, the doors in the last carriage will not open". Couldn't that work here? * I think the line would be used even more if it appeared on the Tube Map like the North London line (not sure what is the minimum frequency required for this) * Any local regeneration arguments? or environmental e.g. not encouraging further ribbon development in Kent?
  12. GeorgeWashington We went back in the Plough yesterday to say thanks to Gene (assistant manager) and the chefs. Gene has been moved on by his area manager to another branch and I can't remember the name of the woman who manages the place. I suggest you pop in and ask one of the bar staff for the duty manager. Although Gene has gone, it's still the same chefs who cooked up as storm for us. They are very enthusiastic about putting on more events, as I think they enjoy a bit more freedom on menus. Since our christening, they've done some more christenings, a wedding and some funerals - the benefits of being close to two big churches. And before I get accused again of working there, I don't think they'd take me there given that my experience is more finance than filo. Good luck MikeB
  13. I bumped into the Commercial Director (Jan Chaudhry) of Southern this morning at the "meet the managers" event at London Bridge. He made a few valid points: * Dept for Transport not TfL or Southern is responsible for this - whatever is decided will become part of the tender for the new franchise * from his perspective, the biggest problem is that SLL can only handle 4 carriage trains at the moment: this makes it hard for SLL to "compete" with other lines coming into London Bridge * he is also worried about what might happen to the Sydenham trains (my mind wandered at this point as I had not yet had my coffee) * most effective thing to do would be to respond to the consultation document. After posting last night, I got an email from Tessa Jowell's office this morning: she is planning to respond fairly robustly to this consultation. It's also quite encouraging that someone in her office reads this forum.
  14. Mo - I don't think anyone is saying that Peckham or ED deserve better transport than Camberwell. I for one would support the reopening of Camberwell station but let's face it, that train left the station with Beeching. What I am against is the closure of existing useful transport links. Anyway, the impact on Denmark Hill / Peckham Rye as much a problem for Camberwell residents as those of ED. Obviously, I welcome whole-heartedly the prospect of the tram, although even TfL doesn't see this opening until 2016. And whilst I personally might benefit from the "extension" of the ELL to Peckham, I think it's a pretty poor substitute for regular trains to Victoria & London Bridge. Do we have any MPs actually living in the area that might care about this?
  15. I cannot believe TfL is even considering _reducing_ public transport anywhere in London, let alone in the SE "urban" area. Peckham might only be 3 miles from London Bridge but the bus can easily take 45 minutes in the morning. For reference, Tonbridge to London Bridge currently takes 36 minutes in the morning. I've spent some time in the past trying to work with civil servants and am seriously worried by the tone of the transport document in question: this looks like a done deal. (p145) "This option would remove direct services from Clapham High Street, Wandsworth Road and Denmark Hill to London Bridge. There would be a slight reduction in services to London Bridge at Peckham Rye. Crowding from these stations would therefore be expected to increase if the option were implemented in isolation. The option would add services from stations between Nunhead and Bellingham (or potentially beyond) to Victoria. This would lead to reduced crowding from these stations and provision of new journey opportunities to Victoria." A fine example of even-handed analysis ...
  16. Brendan, Rosie - just to clarify, I do not work at the Plough. Genuine christening, genuinely great food. Genuinely not working at the Plough: hence no response earlier in the day; genuine son: hence staying in on Friday night and writing this.
  17. We had a bit of a do at the Plough last Saturday following our son's christening - about 80 for a buffet and some drinks. Without exception, everyone said the food was unbeatable - top quality home roasted meats, fish and cakes and plenty of unusual things for veggies. Given how wonderfully accommodating the management and staff were, the least I can do is give them a bit of free publicity. I know it sometimes seems a long way down Lordship Lane but we've already been back.
  18. I saw someone feeding a flock of about 50 crows yesterday. Not sure if she was throwing bread or fresh meat ...
  19. Would that underground stream be where the wildlife centre is now? I always thought that derelict house on Marsden Rd was due to neglect - its neighbour seems alright.
  20. If it makes you feel better, that's what I pay for my place, which was underpinned about 15 years ago. When I shopped around, no other insurer was interested - even though, having already been underpinned, the house is probably less of a risk.
  21. Vickster I highly recommend losing the bus and cycling. It takes me a leisurely 25 minutes from Goose Green - in snow, rain or shine, or even when there's a train strike. I know there are more direct routes (e.g. up the Old Kent Rd) but I take cycle route 22. I can't find it online but you can order the relevant map from TfL or follow the painted signs on the road. Broadly, make your way to the library in Peckham; I use Bellenden Rd. Then go through the square in front of the library and down the path on the route of the old canal towards Burgess Park. In nice weather, this is lovely and feels a bit like a country lane in parts (if you keep your eyes away from the tower blocks). I don't use it at night though. Take a right at the end onto Glengall Rd, then straight over the Old Kent Rd. A nifty bit of wiggling (keep your eyes out for the signs) takes you to Willow Walk and then up to Bermondsey Street. The only bit of traffic is at London Bridge. Good luck. I'm the one singing along to my ipod. Mike
  22. I currently cycle to the City (c. 25 minutes) and wondered if anyone has any good ideas about the best route to Canary Wharf so I could continue to keep doing this moderate level of exercise in a new job. It seems to me that I'm limited to either over Tower Bridge and down to Docklands (which looks like adding a few miles to the trip) or possibly under the river at Greenwich, although I don't fancy those spiral stairs every day. It's particularly annoying since it's probably closer as the crow flies.
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