I would hold fire on making any bold predictions about whether or not there will be a 2nd ref, or indeed anything to do with Brexit right now. ''A week is a long time in politics'', and next week there's this big Chequers pow-wow. If May is unable to continue kicking the can down the road, then she somehow has to reach a consensus with her Cabinet, who have already started tearing strips of each other ahead of the meeting, so that's not looking good. The problem May has had since the election is that there isn't a majority in the HoC for the two likely outcomes, either a very soft, very long, Andrex Brexit in order to deal with the Irish border, or a very Hard Brexit/No Deal. I can't see either getting through Parliament without mass resignations, some kind of leadership challenge and/or a general election, and/or a 2nd ref. Joe, UKIP are currently a very different beast, even Farage thinks they have veered off to an extreme. They will attract the loony FreeTommy brigade, but that's about it...