Property prices cooling in ED?

[Reg Smeeton]

Loz Wrote:

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> Reg Smeeton Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > I predict prices will have fallen 10% from their

> peak by October this

> > year. Any takers?

>

> Considering the peak was the mad times of Spring

> 2014, I suggest this (and more) has already

> happened

So Loz you reckon that, say, a flat bought for ?500k two years ago would now fetch only ?450k? Hmm, show me the evidence. I can believe that prices only climbed a little bit last year, but not that they fell. But I'm predicting that a flat bought for ?500k in the last six months will be down to ?450k by this autumn (assuming it's not been 'improved' in the meantime).

[Villager]

Talked to 2 estate agent friends in last coupe of days and both say that the froth has gone off the market. There was a big demand in the run up to 5th April (end of tax year) and they say most vendors now will accept offers well below the recent asking prices.

[Loz]

> So Loz you reckon that, say, a flat bought for

> ?500k two years ago would now fetch only ?450k?

> Hmm, show me the evidence.

Yep, that's right. The St Francis Estate (SE22 8DJ/8DL/8DP/8DU) has a good set of houses to see this, as they are all very similar properties and so have similar values. If you look at the 2 beds there over that time period, you'll see they were selling for 550-580 back in Spring 2014 and are now going for 470-520.

[Reg Smeeton]

Villager Wrote:

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> Talked to 2 estate agent friends in last coupe of

> days and both say that the froth has gone off the

> market. There was a big demand in the run up to

> 5th April (end of tax year) and they say most

> vendors now will accept offers well below the

> recent asking prices.

So - can you ask your estate agent friends when they think sold prices were at their absolute peak for (say) a 2 bed flat in SE22? My guess is going to be the last couple of months. (But prices were rising at their fastest in 2013/14).

[Azira]

The sold values are still up on the sold values a couple of years ago for period stock in SE23.

[Rianoo]

Sold values for SE22 in past 12 months were +11.6%. Even if they do cool that is quite a buffer for a 12 month period and considering SE22 property values rose during a period of stagnation in recession I am not too worried. The Panama Papers scandal may (possibly) also drive an influx of cash into the market seeing as London is happy to cater for big money, from wherever.

[joshR]

We bought a 2 bed period place in Honor Oak in 2012 and recently sold up and moved on... Based on both ours and other recently sold properties on the road, prices went up 80% in that time. Most of that growth was in the first two years though and it does seem as if things have hit a bit of a ceiling around there with stagnation and some signs of drops also.

[toto]

Rianoo is right, +11.6% in one year ain't bad !

By the way, did anyone notice the difference in property valuation between :

https://www.houser.co.uk/property-values

and

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/home-values/

My small one bedroom flat is evaluated ?359,000 with Zoopla, and ?409,182 with Houser... Bit of a difference there...

[Jeremy]

toto Wrote:

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> My small one bedroom flat is evaluated ?359,000

> with Zoopla, and ?409,182 with Houser... Bit of a

> difference there...

TBH both valuations are utterly meaningless.

[tomdhu]

Reg Smeeton Wrote:

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> Villager Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Talked to 2 estate agent friends in last coupe

> of

> > days and both say that the froth has gone off

> the

> > market. There was a big demand in the run up to

> > 5th April (end of tax year) and they say most

> > vendors now will accept offers well below the

> > recent asking prices.

>

> So - can you ask your estate agent friends when

> they think sold prices were at their absolute peak

> for (say) a 2 bed flat in SE22? My guess is going

> to be the last couple of months. (But prices were

> rising at their fastest in 2013/14).

There was a big rise in prices up until 5th April on the back of Buy To Lets having a last punt. The reality is that since 6th April, the market has gone into reverse. And about time too. Things were getting really silly.

[P.O.U.S.theWonderCat]

Evidence for any of these assertions?

[Loz]

P.O.U.S.theWonderCat Wrote:

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> Evidence for any of these assertions?

Historical selling prices are widely available on the internet.

[Mick Mac]

DovertheRoad Wrote:

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>Did you hear we had our place valued at ?1.5M?

I would have thought that was a conservative valuation for your road.

[Help-Ma-Boab]

Bloody Tories!

Mick Mac Wrote:

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> DovertheRoad Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

>

> >Did you hear we had our place valued at ?1.5M?

>

>

> I would have thought that was a conservative

> valuation for your road.

[P.O.U.S.theWonderCat]

Loz Wrote:

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> P.O.U.S.theWonderCat Wrote:

> --------------------------------------------------

> -----

> > Evidence for any of these assertions?

>

> Historical selling prices are widely available on

> the internet.

Indeed, but legitimate Land Registry data is released on a delay of several months. I can't see how anyone can have evidence for claims that the market has gone into reverse since 6 April and that it's due to BTL, for example.

[red devil]

Agree with WonderCat, don't see how anyone can make such a sure fired assumption. In time the market might well have slowed down after the BTL tax deadline, but you can't say so after a week. Reads more as wishful thinking...

[Mick Mac]

I personally have my doubts about the rush to buy to let before 5 April. ok, if you were in a process to buy already then speed it up a few weeks but I think people have only been further dis-incentivised to buy to let in the last year and wont have been motivated by potentially avoiding a stamp duty hike.

I don't see the early completion of these properties distorting the market significantly - or reflecting a market going into reverse - in fact the main market significantly outweighs BTL and the main market usually has a very busy period in Q2.

[????]

i think medium term some softening will happen (not a collapse) in flats, i also think rents will stabilise too.

- Masses of speculative off plan, largely foreign bought is coming on stream shortly (and I think is falling in value as off plan already?)

- inner London fall will start to ripple out a bit (not the steepness though)

- BTL isn't as surefire +

- people just can't afford it realistic (ie those that can get a mortgage/capital) demand will fall

If interest rates were to rise (I'm still calling no) then that could accelerate this

But who fooking knows eh?

[DovertheRoad]

Pass the Ferrero Rocher to Michael will you Andrew?

[Reg Smeeton]

Reg Smeeton Wrote on Apr 12:

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> One crude way of detecting a cooling market is to

> find out how many SE22 homes are on the market on

> Rightmove. At the moment it's 222, which is a lot

> more than a year ago.

Six weeks later, the number of homes on the market with Rightmove has jumped to 268, of which 66 are indicated as having had prices reduced.

[TheArtfulDogger]

And your point is Reg?

That's only 26% of the properties on a listing website showing that they are listing at a reduced price, after a recent temporary rise in prices caused by the by to let surge to beat the stamp duty rises. Also how much of a reduction and what price did they sell for ?

What are the long term month, quarter and yearly trends showing? It needs to be about actual selling prices not listing prices (which lets face it can often be pie in the sky figures )

As they say one Swallow doesn't make a summer and it may just be wishful thinking that prices are cooling yet overall property is still going up in value in the area.

[Broco123]

All,

Latest research I have seen involves quite negative price growth in many of the traditionally wealthy areas namely central London. Dulwich is considered on this and was the only area which wasn't decreasing, albeit was flat on a 3month basis and up 2% on a 12month basis - not huge but the best across the comparative areas.

In terms of non-wealthy areas, east Dulwich still hits a spot where aspiration all young professionals can buy or rent a decent house, so will always be in demand whilst supply across the capital is still restricted and the only thing being built is very high value or soulless purpose built blocks (such as nine elms, where you are quite right prices are dropping and it is mainly foreign buyers. But consider those flats wouldn't have been built without those foreign buyers taking them off plan, and then the domestic market buys them cheap when they sell them on...)

[Reg Smeeton]

In April according to Rightmove there were 220 properties on the market in SE22. The number is now 320. For the first time in a while, maybe supply is out-stripping demand.

[P.O.U.S.theWonderCat]

Rats... ships... etc.

[????]

"It's quiet out there sir"

"Too quiet, Lieutenant, too quiet"