EDF Straw Poll on EU Referendum

[robbin]

In any event its all a bit academic - we will never know the truth as there's no real chance of a leave majority vote, I don't think. Just more years of grinding decline while unelected bureaucrats decide our future and get fatter. Then at some point the exposure of the fault-lines in the Euro economic system leading to right wing nutters getting more power (or god forbid control of some member states). Not all will lose out - the poor EU members will obviously get a lot better off as our contributions find their way to them, but the richer states will inevitably be in decline (it's simple arithmetic after all - there's a pot we all pay into and take out of, in varying amounts - there's no voodoo magic that makes the pot grow so we can all take out more than goes in).

I will never be less happy to be proved right, but that's my prediction. It will take a few years, maybe two or three decades, but unless there's major EU reform that seems inevitable to me.

Sounds like Cameron's project fear in reverse, but that's my honest view.

[robbin]

"Of course you can choose to believe they are bluffing but I believe they mean what they have explicitly said as they have good reason for doing so."

I genuinely do think they are bluffing. Of course it is in their interests to scare us into voting to remain - they want us to remain. If their politicians said don't worry we will be cooperative in our mutual interests (which is what the German CBI type people are saying) they would be (rightly) worried we would feel confident that it is safe to vote to leave. That would be madness - so yes, I do genuinely think it is an obvious bluff and negotiating position. They would be stupid to say otherwise and they are certainly not stupid.

[DulwichFox]

The E.U is just a financial Empire.. Like all Empires they rise and fall..

The E.U. might not be here in another 10-15 years. Like when your children have grown up.

A Sinking Ship.. No place for Chivalry where The E.U. Referendum is concened.

Sink or swim .? I'm for swimming. I'm out.

Foxy.

[LondonMix]

You think the UK is in grinding economic decline right now Robbin?

I suppose that explains a lot if that's really how you perceive the UK despite it having a very high growth and job creation rate.

[robbin]

I should have added: the 'good reason' for them not doing so is that it would damage them as well as us! Nobody sensible thinks tariffs are a good idea and I'm sure they don't either (after all, they are in the EU free trade organisation!). So why would they cut off their noses to spite their faces?

[Blah Blah]

Robbin, Germany is bound by the same rules as every EU member. She won't be able to do a unilateral deal with the UK on trade. We WILL be subject to the same rules as Norway and Switzerland. This is just fantasy to think we are so special that other EU members will just accept a special deal for us while they have no such deal. Clearly you have no understanding whatsever of how the EU and trading rules work.

[Blah Blah]

And just on tariffs. Even the WTO imposes tariffs, and there is no way of avoiding those, no way whatsoever.

[Louisa]

Blah Blah, with respect, that is nonsense. There are 46 nations who trade tariff free with the EU and do not have to accept any of the rules and regs surrounding free movement of labor. Yes, Norway and Switzerland do have to accept tariffs as part of the deal they achieved with the EU, but that's primarily because they are smaller nations on the periphery of the EU and those deals were tailored to suit the needs of both parties individually. The UK with a population of 60 odd million, would be in a similar position to the United States, India or Australia. None of which pay any tariffs on trade.

Louisa.

[LondonMix]

Robbin, France and Germany have both said they won't start negotiating the new trade agreement until after Brexit has been concluded in two years. The main reason they've given is they want to settle the fate of EU citizens living in the UK before starting trade negotiations because they don't want Britain to use that as a bargaining chip.

The EU has also said that the UK has 3 models it can adopt with the EU post Brexit-- the Norway model (which still requires payments to the EU and still requires unlimited EU immigration) but is tariff free; the Canadian model which is just being finalized (you can see the terms), or WTO rules (which is what everyone without an explicitly agreed trade agreement uses with the EU including the US) which includes tariffs.

robbin Wrote:

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> I should have added: the 'good reason' for them

> not doing so is that it would damage them as well

> as us! Nobody sensible thinks tariffs are a good

> idea and I'm sure they don't either (after all,

> they are in the EU free trade organisation!). So

> why would they cut off their noses to spite their

> faces?

[LondonMix]

That's not true Louisa. Having a trade agreement with the UK does not mean those countries have tariff free trade. They just have better than WTO terms. No country has tariff free access to the EU block without also being part of the free movement of citizens and paying a contribution to the EU. No one.

The Canada deal covers many (though not all goods) but does not cover any services for instances. When you are part of the EEA (free trade zone) then everything is covered and there are less bureaucratic checks (which also increase the cost of doing business).

Louisa Wrote:

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> Blah Blah, with respect, that is nonsense. There

> are 46 nations who trade tariff free with the EU

> and do not have to accept any of the rules and

> regs surrounding free movement of labor. Yes,

> Norway and Switzerland do have to accept tariffs

> as part of the deal they achieved with the EU, but

> that's primarily because they are smaller nations

> on the periphery of the EU and those deals were

> tailored to suit the needs of both parties

> individually. The UK with a population of 60 odd

> million, would be in a similar position to the

> United States, India or Australia. None of which

> pay any tariffs on trade.

>

> Louisa.

[robbin]

Yes, grinding decline. I didn't say economic decline, although I think that is not too far off.

The NHS is dysfunctional, overwhelmed and getting worse. There are not enough school places. House prices mean living in London/owning in London is well out of reach of most. Wages have been driven way down in some sectors. We are shut out from trading with massive economies in any proper way. We are shut out from employing expert migrants in certain areas because they are not from the EU. I'm not saying I'm not in favour of migration and different cultures - I am - I think they are good and differences are good - it is all a question of degree and whether there is unfettered migration or migration that can be controlled in order to avoid overcrowding of public services etc.

Generally I see decline in the quality of life, yes.

[Blah Blah]

And those free trade deals were done with a trading bloc of 500 million people, not a small island of just 65 million. Size of market matters in trade negotiations. You are not comparing like for like.

But if you actually look at those deals, they are mainly with smaller countries, namely in South America with individual exports of less than 2bn. This is significant because there is no market competition detriment on such small levels of exports. They are deals set up namely to help poorer economies. We on the other hand export 200bn worth of goods/ervices to the EU annually, which is a different ball game altogether when it comes to market competiton.

[LondonMix]

Robbin-- and how is the EU responsible for the NHS and school places? EU migrants pay more in taxes than they use in services (fact). The lack of public services is due to austerity. If all the immigrants left, there would be a bigger hole in the public finances to provide NHS services and school places and service levels would be even worse not better.

There have been studies that prove immigration has not had any major impact on low-skill wages. I can link to it if you don't take me at face value. That idea is a total misconception.

I agree about house prices. Immigration has helped drive economic growth through the importation of skills, particularly in London. The rapid expansion of jobs this has allowed has led to a rapid expansion of population. Jobs growth in London unsurprisingly has equaled population growth. So without all those new jobs, there would be less pressure on housing.

I'm not sure an economically stagnant city that is not creating jobs though is anyone's idea of a better situation... Surely a more logical response is to increase building (particularly by the government as the private sector is failing to meet demand). Killing growth seems like a weird way to address a housing problem.

[Blah Blah]

That is completely right LondonM. The solution to housing pressure is to mass build. And we are only in that mess because of the failure to build enough over the lat 20 years. Why politicians cling to this idea that the private market alone will do it is anyone's guess. We've mass built before, and we weren't part of any EU then.

[LondonMix]

I really don't get how people can't see the only way to stop population growth in London is to kill jobs growth. The two go hand in hand in the most basic way.

[Blah Blah]

Also, people within the UK move to where there are jobs which is why the populations of the North have decreased. I don't understand what part of that people don't get either. They are blaming the EU for things that are nothing to do with the EU but the demographic and economic strategies of our own governments.

[numbers]

I can understand why the vociferous social media contingent /preaching to the converted has the entirely opposite effect!

Also, not keen on banned (for good reason) posters pontificating their tedious views on here either.

Scottish voters must be thoroughly sick of all this referendum business. The same arguments are being played out over and over again.

I don't think remainers will have anything to worry about tomorrow.

[robbin]

"Tedious views" = those you don't happen to agree with.

"Pompous" comments = condescendingly describing other people's views as "tedious".

[maxxi]

"I really don't get how people..."

"I don't understand what part of that people don't get..."

Poor bewildered darlings. 'People' eh? Can't trust 'em, can't shoot 'em.

Never mind, all over soon and you can start telling folks how they're thinking wrongly about all kinds of other shit.

[LondonMix]

What's your problem maxxi? Seriously- stop trying to put words in my mouth and stop stirring shit for no reason just because you are bored.

[Jules-and-Boo]

maxxi's got a point.

Part of debate is understanding the other's point of view - not necessarily agreeing with them.... just not belittling them because they don't align with your own.

[LondonMix]

I have never said that anyone's decision to vote one way or another was wrong. In fact, I've explicitly said that I respect people who want to leave, particularly for sovereignty.

However, it is not a question of viewpoint to say something that is factually incorrect like that other countries have free trade with the EU without a free movement of people. It simply isn't. And if you read through my posts, almost every comment I have made has been concerning the factual accuracy of statements that have been made.

And I have definitely not insulted or belittled anyone Jules. I really resent the implication that I have.

[????]

Social media and sanctimonious moral posturing nearly pushed my cross to leave....but I voted Remain

[maxxi]

LondonMix Wrote:

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> What's your problem maxxi?

Is that a rhetorical question or a genuine attempt to engage?

Seriously- stop

> trying to put words in my mouth

My dear boy/girl you've used so many I wouldn't know where to begin.

and stop stirring

> shit for no reason just because you are bored.

Is that what I'm doing? Thanks for clearing that up... for putting words in my mouth (as it were).

I knew you would know what I was up to.

[maxxi]

Oh, and I too have voted.

Turns out I was allowed to despite my frivolous approach to proceedings.

Never trust the people.